Rob K
20 January 2022 10:26:31
Matt Hugo full of gloom on Twitter this morning about a +NAO final third of winter.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Spring Sun Winter Dread
20 January 2022 10:38:27
And it hasn't even been mild enough for us to have more than a snowball's chance in a Bartlett dominated hell of getting anywhere near the warmest winter on record .
I always say February shouldn't be written off though. Got many memories of it providing the coldest and snowiest weather of otherwise thoroughly barren winters (2nd half in 2005 and first half in 2012 being the classic examples)
tallyho_83
20 January 2022 11:39:46

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 

And it hasn't even been mild enough for us to have more than a snowball's chance in a Bartlett dominated hell of getting anywhere near the warmest winter on record .
I always say February shouldn't be written off though. 


...Unless it's February 2019...


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
20 January 2022 11:41:49

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Matt Hugo full of gloom on Twitter this morning about a +NAO final third of winter.


At least somewhere in the UK could have more chance of seeing snow - Perhaps Scotland...so there will be something for us to discuss or of interest perhaps even if it didn't fall in lowland southern England it may fall in Scottish highlands!?


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
20 January 2022 12:45:17

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Matt Hugo full of gloom on Twitter this morning about a +NAO final third of winter.


I never thought of the increase in Solar Activity like sunspots as a possible answer. I thought that even if there was a shape increase in sunspot's it would take a while to see a response from a Stratospheric and Tropospheric pattern, but Matt Hugo may have a point here because these are questions we all want answers to and that's why the easterly QBO and La Nina (Esp eastern based) not given us cold and blocked weather and why have we had such a strong PV and NO SSW's when last winter we were in a westerly QBO and managed x2 SSW's and reversal of a zonal flow on two occasions as seen in the graph chart diagram after his tweet below.


Here with his tweet which I don't know how to embed. 














 





 








 










Matt Hugo

 



@MattHugo81




·


 






"A noticeably different situation at 60N, 10hPa than last year and last year we didn't have the eQBO...That's one question I want to find an answer too, why hasn't the Nina/eQBO combo not imprinted more on to the strat than was expected/possible...Could it be solar, its poss."





Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Gavin D
20 January 2022 15:47:01

Tuesday 25 Jan - Thursday 3 Feb


A largely cloudy start to this period for all, with perhaps some isolated fog forming under any clear skies in the south, otherwise largely dry and fine here. After a possibly brighter but colder start in the north, rain arrives across the northwest and is perhaps accompanied by some strong winds. Temperatures are likely to be close to average in the south, whereas milder in the north. Settled conditions looking to continue to dominate through the period, however, rain or showers at times for the north and northwest, with some stronger winds, mainly restricted to the far north, although possibly unsettled conditions sinking south at times. Heading into February, this settled theme is likely to remain, with drier than average conditions for most.


Friday 4 Feb - Friday 18 Feb


Early February is likely to see a continuation of a north/south split with more settled and cloudy weather expected in the south, and generally drier than average, while the north will be more changeable, milder, with some spells of rain. There is an increased likelihood of more unsettled conditions becoming established, with the northwest likely to be the wettest area, but showers or longer spells of rain may spread to most areas at times, with the southeast likely to be the driest. Spells of strong winds are likely to develop more widely at times. Temperatures likely to be near or slightly above average although short lived colder interludes are possible. Any snow likely to be restricted to high ground in the north.


 


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/


 

Gavin D
23 January 2022 21:40:26

Outlook



  • Some rain at times

  • Driest in the south

  • Relatively mild


 


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/60102933


 

Gavin D
23 January 2022 21:42:12

Rare Sight as Mykonos and all Cyclades are Covered by Snow


 


https://greekreporter.com/2022/01/23/snow-mykonos-greece/

Gavin D
26 January 2022 15:52:34

Monday 31 Jan - Wednesday 9 Feb


Through this period, the weather is likely to start off wetter than of late, with blustery showers in the north and cloudy with rain in the south, before clearing away through the day on Monday to leave brighter conditions. Cloudy and dry weather is then possible to return for most at the end of January, while it is likely to be wet and windy in the northwest at times, with wintry showers possible over high ground in Scotland. Moving into February, the largely settled and cloudy weather is likely to remain for most, with some rain and wind in the far northwest at times. Overall, temperatures are likely to be near or milder than average through this period, although some brief colder than average spells in the north are possible.


Thursday 10 Feb - Thursday 24 Feb


The current north-south split to the weather is likely to continue from mid-February and through to the second half of the month, with most seeing drier than average conditions. The northwest of the UK is likely to see some rain and strong winds at times. During this period, temperatures are likely to remain milder than average overall, with brief colder incursions possible in the north.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/


 

Gavin D
26 January 2022 15:56:52

BBC monthly outlook


Summary


 


Seasonal or mild. More unsettled in February


 


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

tallyho_83
26 January 2022 16:04:43

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


BBC monthly outlook


Summary


 


Seasonal or mild. More unsettled in February


 


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook



Big changes on the way then so I see!?NOT.


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


johncs2016
28 January 2022 17:37:50
It looks as though our weather might be about to become more interesting at long last, though not from any sort of cold perspective.

That is because the weather system which is forcast to bring strong winds at the weekend has been officially named by the Danish Met Service as Storm Malik. Furthermore, it looks as though the roughly the same areas which were affected by Storm Arwen not all that long ago will be the worst affected areas this time and although there are no red warnings this time, we (along with parts of eastern Scotland) will already be under an amber warning for that.

Given that it is the Danish Met Service which has named this one, it is likely to Denmark which gets the biggest direct impacts from that. Meanwhile, the next storm on our own list is Storm Corrie, but the wait for that one goes on. This to me, is why we should had a uniform storm naming systems which covers the whole of Europe, rather than this current rather fragmented system where different parts of Europe have their own naming systems for that.

Having said that, it might have been a different story if the biggest direct impacts of this storm had been in somewhere like the Netherlands rather than Denmark. The Netherlands are not all that far to the SW of Denmark and also forms part of our storm naming system along with the UK and the Irish Republic. Had this happened, it may well have been the Dutch who were naming this storm rather than Denmark which means that we might well have had Storm Corrie after all if this had happened.



The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
dagspot
28 January 2022 17:43:05
Whats this Storm Malik where did that come from?
Neilston 600ft ASL
Gavin D
28 January 2022 17:46:06

Wednesday 2 Feb - Friday 11 Feb


An unsettled start to this period as rain moves north-eastward, becoming increasingly widespread and heavy. Some wintery conditions could also develop around high ground in Scotland. Gale force winds in the far north and northeast start to ease, although temperatures continue to remain rather cold in this area. Elsewhere temperatures remain around average with a moderate to strong breeze. A north/south divide is expected to continue through the rest of the period with settled conditions and milder temperatures prevailing in the south, whilst unsettled and wetter conditions with strong winds are seen across northern regions. Some, mostly short-lived, spells of colder temperatures are likely in the north and northwest, where some wintery showers could develop.


Saturday 12 Feb - Saturday 26 Feb


The current north-south split to the weather is likely to continue from mid-February and through to the second half of the month. Northern areas, especially the northwest, are likely to see nearer average temperatures with more rain and strong winds interspersed with a few short-lived colder spells. Southern regions are likely to see warmer, drier and overall, more settled conditions.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/


 

idj20
28 January 2022 17:53:02

Originally Posted by: dagspot 

Whats this Storm Malik where did that come from?



Named by the Danish Met Office due to possible weather-related impacts to their country.


Folkestone Harbour. 
Gavin D
29 January 2022 12:22:16

US East Coast hunkers down as 'bombogenesis' snowstorm hits


 


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-60177979

doctormog
29 January 2022 12:24:51
Storm Corrie has also been named for Sunday’s system.
dagspot
29 January 2022 12:28:25

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Storm Corrie has also been named for Sunday’s system.


Well seeing they didn't go for Storm Carrie…  #BoJo


Neilston 600ft ASL
johncs2016
29 January 2022 12:31:30

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Storm Corrie has also been named for Sunday’s system.


I see that it was our own UK Met Office which has named this one.


They probably don't name as many storms on average as Met Eireann over in the Irish Republic but given how popular Coronation Street is here in the UK, it doesn't surprise me that the Met Office wanted were quick to name this one and get in there first this time.


 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Gavin D
30 January 2022 12:29:01

'Bomb cyclone' batters US East Coast with Nor'easter bringing mounds of snow and 'life-threatening' weather conditions


 


https://news.sky.com/story/bomb-cyclone-batters-us-east-coast-with-noreaster-bringing-mounds-of-snow-and-life-threatening-weather-conditions-12528604

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