BBC monthly outlook
Summary
Often unsettled, but rather mild
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Monday 11 February—Sunday 17 February
Calmer, drier and for some areas, cooler
We will see a change in the weather on Monday as a ridge of high pressure builds in the west. This will gradually move eastwards across the country during the week, so most places will become dry, settled and calm. However, Atlantic weather systems could clip the far north-west of the British Isles, so there will be the chance of spells of wet weather here. The ridge of high pressure will move towards Scandinavia and western Russia later in the week. As it does so, broadly easterly or south-easterly winds will develop across central and eastern parts of the UK. Whilst winds from this direction tend to be cool at this time of year, we do not see any indications of any extremely cold weather developing. Western areas of the country could even remain in south to southwesterly winds and would then remain relatively mild.
Monday 18 February—Sunday 24 February
A return to more changeable weather.
As we look beyond mid-month, we can expect to see another change in the pattern across Europe which will have an impact on the weather for the UK. High pressure will still be a feature, but it will tend to be across northern and northeastern parts of the continent. This will allow Atlantic weather systems to start to move into western Europe again, but they will tend to track a little to the southwest of the UK. However, this does still mean that after our a relatively dry and settled week of weather, it will become more unsettled again with showers and rain, and the chance of some spells of windy weather too. However, the risk of strong winds and heavy rain is relatively low. Temperatures are likely to be near normal for the time of year, perhaps a little bit above normal in some areas.
The main alternative to this scenario is that the ridge of high pressure expected to be over northern and northeastern Europe actually moves away from the UK. This would allow more of an Atlantic influence on our weather, so wetter and windier weather would be more likely. Temperatures would probably be near normal though.
Monday 25 February—Sunday 10 March
An unsettled end to winter and start to spring.
There are indications that the area of high pressure expected to be across northern and northeastern Europe will pull away during the last few days of February and start of March. This would allow Atlantic weather systems to move more freely across the UK, so unsettled weather looks to be fairly likely. We're used to unsettled weather at this time of year, and so it is should be no surprise that most areas would have rainfall near normal with winds also close to the seasonal average. This doesn't preclude the odd very wet and windy spell of weather but that would be the exception. Temperatures are likely to be near normal for the time of year, and there is no significant risk of widespread snow.
Meteorological winter ends on February 28th but anyone looking for cold weather to end the winter is likely to be disappointed. There is some uncertainty over the forecast, but the most likely alternative to our expected pattern is for it to be milder, wetter and windier with southwesterly winds dominating.
There is only a small chance (15%) of chilly easterly winds reaching the UK, and even then only certain parts of the country are likely to be affected, England and Wales having the greatest chance of this.
Next Update
Will we see an early burst of spring, or will it remain unsettled and wet as we head into March?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook