You are right if the report in the ST was correct. However, if you look at the skill level of the 10 day European it is way below that and so is the GEFS. Therefore the 46 day European must be significantly less accurate so how do they reach 70% confidence? One assumes they put a heavy weighting on the SSW and it is there that things may need further investigation IMO. 

Yes, that was the source.

The key point, especially given the lower skill levels to which you allude, is that the long range forecasts are probably more likely not to verify - if the figure is below 50%.  

If everyone viewed the forecasts against the backdrop that they're at best 50-50 predictions there might be less angst.

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You are right if the report in the ST was correct. However, if you look at the skill level of the 10 day European it is way below that and so is the GEFS. Therefore the 46 day European must be significantly less accurate so how do they reach 70% confidence? One assumes they put a heavy weighting on the SSW and it is there that things may need further investigation IMO. 

I find it odd that they'll put that much faith in a SSW knowing that all it does is increases our chances of cold, but 70% I highly doubt that.

I find it odd that they'll put that much faith in a SSW knowing that all it does is increases our chances of cold, but 70% I highly doubt that.

But, as Brian said, it was perhaps at best a weighting. There must have been other background signals as well because the forecasters are very aware that there are multiple factors that determine our weather patterns.

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But, as Brian said, it was perhaps at best a weighting. There must have been other background signals as well because the forecasters are very aware that there are multiple factors that determine our weather patterns.

We had a QBO descending into its westerly phase and a weakish Nino alongside unfavourable Atlantic SST’s. Add to that an MJO forecast which chopped and changed as much as the model output then I’m can’t see why ( other than what GLOSEA was showing ) they had such a high level of confidence going into this winter.

We had a QBO descending into its westerly phase and a weakish Nino alongside unfavourable Atlantic SST’s. Add to that an MJO forecast which chopped and changed as much as the model output then I’m can’t see why ( other than what GLOSEA was showing ) they had such a high level of confidence going into this winter.

bang on post 

and I see they are still peddling a watered down version of the same guff we have been listening to since December. 

With this past week seeing widespread snow, well below average temperatures and the coldest temperature for seven years they were nit that far off in spotting the cold at the end of January/early February. What we didn’t get was the much signposted easterly, although looking at the forecasts it seems like the signals are still there for one at some stage on the coming weeks.

They forecast what the empirical evidence shows, if anything it shows e limitation of the models and chaotic, unpredictable nature of our weather. I would love to see and am yet to see anyone do better.

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bang on post 

and I see they are still peddling a watered down version of the same guff we have been listening to since December. 

ah but the buff they are posting is what the models show! Not guff for made up purposes. They still can only write what they see, not matter how wrong it may eventually be. Very tricky thing when people take things as a definite rather than a possibility given 5bat we know it is not an exact science past one day😬

martin

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bang on post 

and I see they are still peddling a watered down version of the same guff we have been listening to since December. 

Sometimes I wonder why we bother explaining how the forecasts are produced.

Your choice of words is extraordinary.

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Sometimes I wonder why we bother explaining how the forecasts are produced.

Your choice of words is extraordinary.

Please elaborate?

the proof of the pudding is in the eating. This wintery outlook should have been dropped IMO at least a week before it has been. 

You think GLOSEA has been bang on the money? we all have an opinion- I think I’m quite justified in mine 🤗

With this past week seeing widespread snow, well below average temperatures and the coldest temperature for seven years they were nit that far off in spotting the cold at the end of January/early February. What we didn’t get was the much signposted easterly, although looking at the forecasts it seems like the signals are still there for one at some stage on the coming weeks.

They forecast what the empirical evidence shows, if anything it shows e limitation of the models and chaotic, unpredictable nature of our weather. I would love to see and am yet to see anyone do better.

Indeed, but  perhaps they need to look at how they present these. We’re still no nearer in predicting beyond seven days than we were some 30 years ago and beyond for these shores unfortunately.

 

Please elaborate?

the proof of the pudding is in the eating. This wintery outlook should have been dropped IMO at least a week before it has been. 

You think GLOSEA has been bang on the money? we all have an opinion- I think I’m quite justified in mine 🤗

I was talking about the fact that despite several people explaining the underlying processes, the issues and the limitations there's still a tendency for people to use emotive language and be unduly critical.

All you've done is reinforce my point.

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Yes, that was the source.

The key point, especially given the lower skill levels to which you allude, is that the long range forecasts are probably more likely not to verify - if the figure is below 50%.  

If everyone viewed the forecasts against the backdrop that they're at best 50-50 predictions there might be less angst.

If that’s the case, there seems very little point in LRFs!  Indeed, you could say they are worse than useless if they’re 50:50, as they are simply likely to give false confidence to people.

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I was talking about the fact that despite several people explaining the underlying processes, the issues and the limitations there's still a tendency for people to use emotive language and be unduly critical.

All you've done is reinforce my point.

all I’ve done is state an opinion which is backed by outcome, or as some might say fact. You still haven’t answered my question regards GLOSEA. 

As pointed out the other day I am a supporter of MetO, but that still doesn’t hide the fact that the long range has been poor. No pats on the back from me that is for sure and I won’t apologise for holding that view. 

Just going to leave Terry Scholey's February forecast here;

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

I think Terry's done well overall this Winter... If he's right there's more cold weather to come around and after mid-Feb.

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With this past week seeing widespread snow, well below average temperatures and the coldest temperature for seven years they were nit that far off in spotting the cold at the end of January/early February. What we didn’t get was the much signposted easterly, although looking at the forecasts it seems like the signals are still there for one at some stage on the coming weeks.

They forecast what the empirical evidence shows, if anything it shows e limitation of the models and chaotic, unpredictable nature of our weather. I would love to see and am yet to see anyone do better.

Great post, Michael.

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And it will be wrong David. This is just following the watered down Met Office forecast. All cold references will be dropped in the next update if the models are to be believed.

Well if you are so confident about that, then maybe you should be working for either MetO or Meteogroup, who are now the BBC's forecast provider. If you were, you would be better placed to comment on what forecast information they have at their disposal before you claim they are right or wrong before the event.

Perhaps you should take up a career as a fortune teller, given that you seem to be so confident about what happens in the future?

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Well if you are so confident about that, then maybe you should be working for either MetO or Meteogroup, who are now the BBC's forecast provider. If you were, you would be better placed to comment on what forecast information they have at their disposal before you claim they are right or wrong before the event.

Perhaps you should take up a career as a fortune teller, given that you seem to be so confident about what happens in the future?

Pretty confident David but will be happy to be wrong. 

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Into the following week (WC 11th)

Drier in the south
Wetter in the north
Staying mild

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/47105197

Late winter forecast from John Hammond

• Drier than normal


• Rather chilly


• Wettest in southwest

Full thought's for subscribers is here https://weathertrending.com/2019/02/02/late-winter-forecast-cold-weather-time/

Just going to leave Terry Scholey's February forecast here;

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

I think Terry's done well overall this Winter... If he's right there's more cold weather to come around and after mid-Feb.

Thanks Gav.

Terry’s the only one whose been anywhere near this winter ( he’s never far out in all time I’ve been reading them ) so kudos to him again.