Met office

UK Outlook for Monday 11 Feb 2019 to Wednesday 20 Feb 2019:

The new working week will start largely dry, bright and frosty with fairly settled conditions. However it will become more unsettled in the northwest early in the week, with strong winds and rain here at times. Any snow is likely to be confined to hills. Southern and eastern areas will have a good deal of dry and often bright weather although overnight fog may become increasingly likely. After a cold start most places should see temperatures around where we would expect for early February but with overnight frosts likely across central and southeastern areas. In these parts generally colder conditions may begin to develop again. Around the middle of the month, things become very uncertain. However there is an increasing chance of more unsettled conditions developing more widely again.

UK Outlook for Thursday 21 Feb 2019 to Thursday 7 Mar 2019:

It is too early to say for certain what will happen from mid February onwards, so it is best to keep up to date with the latest forecasts. What currently seems more likely is for drier, brighter and somewhat colder conditions to dominate, giving night frosts, more particularly across central and southeastern areas of the UK. However, the situation is finely balanced and spells of milder, more unsettled weather are still likely at times, especially in the northwest. There is a low likelihood of a spell of more widely cold conditions developing with snow in places, accompanied by easterly winds.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

I like how the Met Office are so cautious not to go for a sudden flip in their text forecast to a milder outlook and notice each and every time the updates get milder and less cold etc. Very sly!  Next update I expect that last sentence to be edited to something like 'milder spells more likely than cold easterly winds'. 

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Met office 10-day trend

Wind and rain
High pressure next week
Frosty nights

Days 7-10

Higher pressure
Sunny days - Sun gaining in strength so feeling a little warmer
Frosty nights
Small chance turning more widely colder if we pull in chilly air from the continent

 

Next week

Mainly dry in south
Some sunshine
Night frosts
Wet and windy at times in north

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/47152018

Met office

UK Outlook for Tuesday 12 Feb 2019 to Thursday 21 Feb 2019:

Through next week the unsettled weather looks to be mainly in the north and west, with southern and eastern areas seeing the best of the dry and bright weather. Northwestern areas should see temperatures around where we would expect for early February, although it may get quite cold in the south and east, with overnight frost and fog likely where the skies are clear at night. Towards the end of this forecast, it is too early to say for sure what will happen, but there is a good chance we will see some wet and windy spells at times. This could bring a risk of snow to eastern or southern areas if it gets cold enough.

UK Outlook for Friday 22 Feb 2019 to Friday 8 Mar 2019:

It is too early to say for certain what will happen from mid February onwards, so it is best to keep up to date with the latest forecasts. What currently seems more likely is for drier, brighter and somewhat colder conditions to dominate, giving night frosts, more particularly across central and southeastern areas of the UK. However, the situation is finely balanced and spells of milder, more unsettled weather are still likely at times, especially in the northwest. There is a low likelihood of a spell of more widely cold conditions developing with snow in places, accompanied by easterly winds.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

 

Monday 18 February—Sunday 3 March

Remaining mild, with an unsettled end to the month

As we look beyond mid-month, we can expect to see some major pattern changes; high pressure is likely to remain quite extensive across the UK to start with, allowing mild south or south-westerly airflows to move across the country, and keeping temperatures well above average. There will be a lot of dry and calm weather, however, as weather fronts are kept at bay in the Atlantic. There are then indications that the high-pressure area will begin to move to the north of the UK, opening the door to more frequent rain-bearing Atlantic fronts advancing towards western Britain. Scotland could end up becoming rather wet and windy for a few days, while a few weakening bands of rain could edge across the rest of the country. There is no risk of significant snow.

That's a rather brave call at this stage! No risk at all? Fits with my own gut feeling but I wouldn't put it with quite such certainty.

Also I'm struggling to see what they mean by the high pressure moving to the north of the country allowing mild Atlantic attacks into Scotland. If the HP moved to the east of the UK then yes.

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looks like a bit of an upgrade from the Met office .. if it is cold weather you are after and if you live in the south or east? Just feels a bit like Groundhog Day!

 

That's a rather brave call at this stage! No risk at all? Fits with my own gut feeling but I wouldn't put it with quite such certainty.

Also I'm struggling to see what they mean by the high pressure moving to the north of the country allowing mild Atlantic attacks into Scotland. If the HP moved to the east of the UK then yes.

It’s not brave, it’s to be blunt, stupid. 

In weather science there has to be a finite risk for any particular weather type (granted the chance of snow in June is very low, but finite). To say there is ‘no’ risk of significant snow in the UK, in February, following a major SSW, and MJO looking to switch into P8, is ludicrous.

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That's a rather brave call at this stage! No risk at all? Fits with my own gut feeling but I wouldn't put it with quite such certainty.

Also I'm struggling to see what they mean by the high pressure moving to the north of the country allowing mild Atlantic attacks into Scotland. If the HP moved to the east of the UK then yes.

Agreed, Rob.

In some ways, what they are saying doesn't make sense. They say they expect HP to move to the north of the UK. I would have thought that were that to happen, it would actually serve to increase the chance of an easterly airflow becoming established as oppoed to allowing the atlantic back in. If the HP were to move east or south-east, it would be a different matter.

Speaking generally, have the BBC monthly outlooks in general been any nearer the mark wrt what has happened this winter compared to those issued by the MetO. From what I recall, the BBC were less keen back in late November and early December on a significant cold spell before the end of 2018, which IIRC the MetO were talking about for a time.

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That's a rather brave call at this stage! No risk at all? Fits with my own gut feeling but I wouldn't put it with quite such certainty.

Also I'm struggling to see what they mean by the high pressure moving to the north of the country allowing mild Atlantic attacks into Scotland. If the HP moved to the east of the UK then yes.

Rob -= remember this from the BBC a few days before that update for same dates:

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Monday 18 February—Sunday 3 March

Chance of colder weather setting in

It is likely that the final third of February will see a cold spell developing across the UK. This is most likely to be due to a 'blocked' pattern across northern Europe, this preventing our usual mild flow in from the Atlantic, with an increased chance of easterly or north-easterly winds developing. All areas of the country look colder than normal, and many areas will be drier and less windy than normal. There will be an enhanced risk of snow to lower levels and overnight frosts.

There is some uncertainty over the duration and magnitude of this cold spell, and it seems likely that it will be a relatively short spell of cold weather, with things perhaps returning to nearer normal for the start of March.

Whilst a spell of cold weather is the most likely story, there is an alternative scenario which suggests that we could see the Atlantic maintaining some influence on the weather. This would mean that it wouldn't be as widely cold - temperatures would be nearer normal - and there would be a reduced risk of snow. However, it would probably still be cooler than average for the time of year.

Next Update

We should be able to offer a little more detail regarding the intensity and duration of the cold spell expected later this month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Met office

UK Outlook for Tuesday 12 Feb 2019 to Thursday 21 Feb 2019:

Through next week the unsettled weather looks to be mainly in the north and west, with southern and eastern areas seeing the best of the dry and bright weather. Northwestern areas should see temperatures around where we would expect for early February, although it may get quite cold in the south and east, with overnight frost and fog likely where the skies are clear at night. Towards the end of this forecast, it is too early to say for sure what will happen, but there is a good chance we will see some wet and windy spells at times. This could bring a risk of snow to eastern or southern areas if it gets cold enough.

UK Outlook for Friday 22 Feb 2019 to Friday 8 Mar 2019:

It is too early to say for certain what will happen from mid February onwards, so it is best to keep up to date with the latest forecasts. What currently seems more likely is for drier, brighter and somewhat colder conditions to dominate, giving night frosts, more particularly across central and southeastern areas of the UK. However, the situation is finely balanced and spells of milder, more unsettled weather are still likely at times, especially in the northwest. There is a low likelihood of a spell of more widely cold conditions developing with snow in places, accompanied by easterly winds.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

For the metoffice this just reads so unprofessional, I thought for a moment I was reading something written by an amateur... like something i'd expect read on a forum like this.

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Drier spell


• Some springlike sunshine


• Cold easterlies for a time

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/02/08/john-hammond-month-ahead-time-look-east/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

BBC London weather for next week, despite the high pressure, advised temperatures trending quite a bit downwards with the current mild conditions being replaced by colder weather, especially at night.

Next week

Mainly dry in south
Some sunshine
Night frosts
Wet and windy at times in north

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/47171849

Met office

UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Feb 2019 to Friday 22 Feb 2019:

By Wednesday there are signals for predominantly settled weather to be in place across the UK, particularly across the southeast. Some rain and stronger winds are likely in the north and west; temperatures here may be above average or mild for the time of year. Overnight frost and fog is likely during this settled spell, particularly in the south and east where it is likely to be colder than average; with a possibility of snow showers from the east. This theme may last into the following week. There is low confidence in timings for a change to more unsettled conditions across the UK, but by the end of the week a transition to more mobile weather patterns is likely, however there is little confidence on the timing of this transition.

UK Outlook for Saturday 23 Feb 2019 to Saturday 9 Mar 2019:

Confidence in the detail and timing of any weather patterns is low by the start of the extended outlook. Current projections favour a colder and more blocked regime to return into early March, with an increased risk of cold weather and potential for snow. Temporary milder, windier spells are also likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

‘Current projections favour a colder blocked outcome’
Another change of emphasis from UKM and I wasn’t expecting it it has to be said.

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I think that second half of the long-ranger is the shortest I've ever seen. Clearly they don't have a Scooby.

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Next week

Mainly dry in south
Some sunshine
Night frosts
Wet and windy at times in north

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/47180154

I think that second half of the long-ranger is the shortest I've ever seen. Clearly they don't have a Scooby.

Do you think the opening words might offer a clue?

"Confidence in the detail and timing of any weather patterns is low..."

 

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often unsettled, but rather mild

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Monday 11 February—Sunday 17 February

Calmer, drier and for some areas, cooler

We will see a change in the weather on Monday as a ridge of high pressure builds in the west. This will gradually move eastwards across the country during the week, so most places will become dry, settled and calm. However, Atlantic weather systems could clip the far north-west of the British Isles, so there will be the chance of spells of wet weather here. The ridge of high pressure will move towards Scandinavia and western Russia later in the week. As it does so, broadly easterly or south-easterly winds will develop across central and eastern parts of the UK. Whilst winds from this direction tend to be cool at this time of year, we do not see any indications of any extremely cold weather developing. Western areas of the country could even remain in south to southwesterly winds and would then remain relatively mild.

Monday 18 February—Sunday 24 February

A return to more changeable weather.

As we look beyond mid-month, we can expect to see another change in the pattern across Europe which will have an impact on the weather for the UK. High pressure will still be a feature, but it will tend to be across northern and northeastern parts of the continent. This will allow Atlantic weather systems to start to move into western Europe again, but they will tend to track a little to the southwest of the UK. However, this does still mean that after our a relatively dry and settled week of weather, it will become more unsettled again with showers and rain, and the chance of some spells of windy weather too. However, the risk of strong winds and heavy rain is relatively low. Temperatures are likely to be near normal for the time of year, perhaps a little bit above normal in some areas.

The main alternative to this scenario is that the ridge of high pressure expected to be over northern and northeastern Europe actually moves away from the UK. This would allow more of an Atlantic influence on our weather, so wetter and windier weather would be more likely. Temperatures would probably be near normal though.

Monday 25 February—Sunday 10 March

An unsettled end to winter and start to spring.

There are indications that the area of high pressure expected to be across northern and northeastern Europe will pull away during the last few days of February and start of March. This would allow Atlantic weather systems to move more freely across the UK, so unsettled weather looks to be fairly likely. We're used to unsettled weather at this time of year, and so it is should be no surprise that most areas would have rainfall near normal with winds also close to the seasonal average. This doesn't preclude the odd very wet and windy spell of weather but that would be the exception. Temperatures are likely to be near normal for the time of year, and there is no significant risk of widespread snow.

Meteorological winter ends on February 28th but anyone looking for cold weather to end the winter is likely to be disappointed. There is some uncertainty over the forecast, but the most likely alternative to our expected pattern is for it to be milder, wetter and windier with southwesterly winds dominating.

There is only a small chance (15%) of chilly easterly winds reaching the UK, and even then only certain parts of the country are likely to be affected, England and Wales having the greatest chance of this.

Next Update

Will we see an early burst of spring, or will it remain unsettled and wet as we head into March?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

The BBC have rarely bought into the cold outlook this winter and have been one step ahead of the Met Office in their monthlies for that reason.

 

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