Brian Gaze
27 January 2019 08:28:41

In the short term the forecasts will be on the day to day risk of snow. In the longer term it's all eyes on whether the milder signal some of the raw output is picked up by the agencies. 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Gooner
27 January 2019 08:53:47

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Remaining cold throughout, with hard overnight frosts. There is relatively high uncertainty for the period, however some significant snow is possible Tuesday into Wednesday, and perhaps again late Thursday.

For MBY


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Gavin D
27 January 2019 09:29:34
To answer the question from tallyho_83 in the locked thread the BBC forecaster was Alina Jenkins
Whiteout
27 January 2019 10:02:28

Warnings out 


Home/Work - Dartmoor

220m/725 ft asl

35 mins walk to 500m/1640 ft asl

 

nsrobins
27 January 2019 10:13:24

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 

Warnings out 

Which pretty much agree with my forecast issued earlier. At this stage I am not expecting any snow for coastal and low lying areas of Dorset and Hampshire from this particular system. Parameters are simply the wrong side of marginal for down here.

Anywhere above say Salisbury/Winchester/Andover may well fair better.


Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Gavin D
27 January 2019 10:58:23

Weatheronline's latest monthly forecast

Valid from 01/02 to 28/02 2019

Issued: Saturday 26th January 2019
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling

Chilly overall, mixed with risk of rain, sleet and snow, milder later

Chilly conditions are expected to prevail for most of February. There is a risk of rain, sleet and snow with low pressure being close to the south. Conditions may become milder later in the month as low pressure retreats to the west and the flow becomes more southerly.

*1/2/19 - 7/2/19*

Chilly start to month. Risk of rain, sleet and snow. Windy at times. Coolest in east.

*8/2/19 - 14/2/19*

Higher pressure builds to the east. Flow becomes more easterly. Colder, frosty north. Risk sleet & snow in south.

*15/2/19 - 21/2/19*

Low over southern UK. High to north. Staying chilly to cold. Risk of rain, sleet and snow. Highest snow risk north.

*22/2/19 - 28/2/19*

Perhaps milder as low pressure retreats west. Drier in the east. Wet to the west.

 

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/month-ahead.htm

tallyho_83
27 January 2019 11:06:58

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

To answer the question from tallyho_83 in the locked thread the BBC forecaster was Alina Jenkins

 

Thanks ! haha" her hand gestures:

BBC forecast now has this low a little further north for Tuesday and shows quite a large part of England and Wales getting either a lot of rain or a lot of snow or a sleety mixture of all as it moves across the country and she did go on to say that this low keeps toing and froing!'  


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com



jhall
27 January 2019 11:35:36

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

 

 

Thanks ! haha" her hand gestures:

BBC forecast now has this low a little further north for Tuesday and shows quite a large part of England and Wales getting either a lot of rain or a lot of snow or a sleety mixture of all as it moves across the country and she did go on to say that this low keeps toing and froing!'  

The Met Office now have a weather warning out for this, covering much of SE England, East Anglia and the East Midlands.


Cranleigh, Surrey
Jim-55
27 January 2019 11:46:26

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 

Warnings out 

My patch has just scraped into the warning area, fingers crossed.


Previously JimC. joined back then in 2009. Frome, N/E Somerset, 125mtrs asl.
Gavin D
27 January 2019 12:23:55
Met office

UK Outlook for Friday 1 Feb 2019 to Sunday 10 Feb 2019:

February will begin cold with rain, sleet and snow likely across northern parts, easing and edging slowly southwards. This will be followed by brighter but showery weather through the weekend, with snow showers in places. Thereafter, it will stay unsettled with further spells of rain, sleet and snow, interspersed by brighter and showery interludes. Snow is possible across most parts of the country at times, with the potential for some occasionally disruptive snow, although there is uncertainty in any detail. Winds will be strong with coastal gales, maintaining a significant wind chill and it is likely that there will be widespread frost and the risk of ice. Towards the end of this period there is a low chance that the winds will turn east or northeasterly bringing even colder weather.

UK Outlook for Monday 11 Feb 2019 to Monday 25 Feb 2019:

Cold or very cold conditions are likely to dominate the weather throughout this period, with a greater than average chance of easterly or northeasterly winds dominating. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow, as well as widespread and occasionally severe frosts, although the exact details remain very uncertain. In this setup, the driest and brightest weather is likely in the north and northwest. Despite the prevalence of cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible, most likely in the south, but this poses the risk of significant snow should very cold conditions become established.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Solar Cycles
27 January 2019 12:28:32
Looks at model output scratches head and gives out a big sigh.
Ally Pally Snowman
27 January 2019 12:40:54

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Met office

UK Outlook for Friday 1 Feb 2019 to Sunday 10 Feb 2019:

February will begin cold with rain, sleet and snow likely across northern parts, easing and edging slowly southwards. This will be followed by brighter but showery weather through the weekend, with snow showers in places. Thereafter, it will stay unsettled with further spells of rain, sleet and snow, interspersed by brighter and showery interludes. Snow is possible across most parts of the country at times, with the potential for some occasionally disruptive snow, although there is uncertainty in any detail. Winds will be strong with coastal gales, maintaining a significant wind chill and it is likely that there will be widespread frost and the risk of ice. Towards the end of this period there is a low chance that the winds will turn east or northeasterly bringing even colder weather.

UK Outlook for Monday 11 Feb 2019 to Monday 25 Feb 2019:

Cold or very cold conditions are likely to dominate the weather throughout this period, with a greater than average chance of easterly or northeasterly winds dominating. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow, as well as widespread and occasionally severe frosts, although the exact details remain very uncertain. In this setup, the driest and brightest weather is likely in the north and northwest. Despite the prevalence of cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible, most likely in the south, but this poses the risk of significant snow should very cold conditions become established.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

Meto still All In on the cold.

 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
tallyho_83
27 January 2019 12:48:36

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Met office

UK Outlook for Friday 1 Feb 2019 to Sunday 10 Feb 2019:

February will begin cold with rain, sleet and snow likely across northern parts, easing and edging slowly southwards. This will be followed by brighter but showery weather through the weekend, with snow showers in places. Thereafter, it will stay unsettled with further spells of rain, sleet and snow, interspersed by brighter and showery interludes. Snow is possible across most parts of the country at times, with the potential for some occasionally disruptive snow, although there is uncertainty in any detail. Winds will be strong with coastal gales, maintaining a significant wind chill and it is likely that there will be widespread frost and the risk of ice. Towards the end of this period there is a low chance that the winds will turn east or northeasterly bringing even colder weather.

UK Outlook for Monday 11 Feb 2019 to Monday 25 Feb 2019:

Cold or very cold conditions are likely to dominate the weather throughout this period, with a greater than average chance of easterly or northeasterly winds dominating. 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

See so this is the issue I have with the Met Office because the 2nd part 15 to 30 day updated text goes on to say that cold or very cold is likely to dominate? etc and to use the term likely it's as if they are more confident than in the first period because the first period they say there is uncertainty and a low chance that the winds will turn east or north easterly - and this would mean winds turn easterly or north easterly by 7th 8/9/ or 10th Feb? (towards the end!)

See what I mean? It's such a confusing and conflicting picture and this is the MET OFFICE and they should be more reliable than any models we have seen that keep flip flopping each run, although now they are trending milder on the whole as seen by latest 06z ensembles.


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com



Ally Pally Snowman
27 January 2019 12:48:42

This place should be buzzing because that really is extraordinarily cold and snowy outlook. But the model output is looking much more average after this week. Very odd.

 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
tallyho_83
27 January 2019 12:49:41

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

Meto still All In on the cold.

 

That means the 12z run will go milder along with the ensembles then!  - seeing as the shorter range models like GFS hasn't been in line with the Met Office updates throughout this winter thus far.


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com



doctormog
27 January 2019 12:51:08

If you say the models “flip flop” from each run what would you recommend professionals do? Try to work out a trend “smoothing out” the changes and looking at the consensus over a period time if there’s is one or switch back and forth each day to reflect model uncertainty? Damned if you do and ridiculed if you do not.


Brian Gaze
27 January 2019 12:53:49

Met Office forecast is what some people here would refer to as an "upgrade". Ultra winter but will it finally arrive? 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

nsrobins
27 January 2019 13:00:50

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

If you say the models “flip flop” from each run what would you recommend professionals do? Try to work out a trend “smoothing out” the changes and looking at the consensus over a period time if there’s is one or switch back and forth each day to reflect model uncertainty? Damned if you do and ridiculed if you do not.

As you know I’m a big advocate of the UKM but I too am puzzled. What I expect given current output and the past four weeks of routine delays in the script is much more uncertainty. They really do believe in a much colder pattern being more likely than any other type. Of course we’ll know for sure by the end of Feb! 😎


Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Gooner
27 January 2019 13:05:11

Its a great read and keeps us Coldies clinging on BUT even I find it odd@ Brian , give them a bell and ask what they are seeing 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



doctormog
27 January 2019 13:05:27

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

 

As you know I’m a big advocate of the UKM but I too am puzzled. What I expect given current output and the past four weeks of routine delays in the script is much more uncertainty. They really do believe in a much colder pattern being more likely than any other type. Of course we’ll know for sure by the end of Feb! 😎

I wonder if the longer term section (16-30 days) has not really been updated, barring minor tweaks and will get a update in the next day or two to increase the uncertainty. The 6-15 day sections seems fair enough based on a meta analysis of the current and recent model output.

As you say though the only thing for certain is that we will know in 5 weeks!


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