If you say the models “flip flop” from each run what would you recommend professionals do? Try to work out a trend “smoothing out” the changes and looking at the consensus over a period time if there’s is one or switch back and forth each day to reflect model uncertainty? Damned if you do and ridiculed if you do not.

Met Office forecast is what some people here would refer to as an "upgrade". Ultra winter but will it finally arrive? 

As you know I’m a big advocate of the UKM but I too am puzzled. What I expect given current output and the past four weeks of routine delays in the script is much more uncertainty. They really do believe in a much colder pattern being more likely than any other type. Of course we’ll know for sure by the end of Feb! 😎

Its a great read and keeps us Coldies clinging on BUT even I find it odd@ Brian , give them a bell and ask what they are seeing 

I wonder if the longer term section (16-30 days) has not really been updated, barring minor tweaks and will get a update in the next day or two to increase the uncertainty. The 6-15 day sections seems fair enough based on a meta analysis of the current and recent model output.

As you say though the only thing for certain is that we will know in 5 weeks!

What are your thoughts on the Met Office outlooks that keep going for cold or very cold?

 I should start paying them actually. Jan CET is 1.4C over and it's been nondescript and boring for most of the time. Despite that I'm approx 150,000 users up on Jan 2018.  

We have to remember the Met are one of the most consulted weather organisations in the world and have access to all manner of data, they are clearly seeing something ………..…...we cant 

As I have said I’m not sure if the 16-30 day outlook will change but the 6-15 day outlook seems reasonable including the low probability of easterly/northeasterlies (i.e. a higher probability there will not be E/NElies).

One thing I do know is that they have more information and experience than I do.

Yes they must be seeing something we are not in the models for them to continue to suggest cold or very cold weather more likely with a chance of easterly or north easterly winds - or maybe they are still assuming there will be a tropospheric response to the SSW and a blocking feature over Iceland and Greenland when in fact there is so far has been no HLB /northern blocking at all at least well into the first week of Feb and maybe the Met Office are still waiting for this to happen and are really confident that it shall happen. It's all so confusing indeed. If we do fail to get a block in Feb then this would be one major fail of not only the longer range models, but the Met Office as well as the failure in the SSW which not only reversed the zonal winds and spit the PV but failed to deliver anything cold and wintry. 

Meanwhile we have some heavy wet snow to look forward to on Tuesday afternoon and evening into Tuesday night if things turn out right.