Just watching the week to ten day forecast by Gav P.
Looks like both EC and CFSv2 has flipped to more milder and dry instead of colder and blocked!!



Also pause the video at 18:45 and anyone notice something in that CFSv2 chart? - Even the CFS is yawning and getting bored and tired of this winter now! ha! Anyone spot the face?

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Met office

UK Outlook for Friday 15 Feb 2019 to Sunday 24 Feb 2019:

A band of rain is expected to move slowly eastwards across the west of the UK during Friday and Saturday, weakening as it does so. Otherwise, the weekend will be mainly fine and settled, with sunny spells, once any early morning low cloud and fog clears. It will be mild by day, but nights will be chilly with a risk of frost in the south. Little overall change is expected through the start of the following week, although temperatures will return to normal, notably across the south and east. Thereafter there is increasing uncertainty, although there is likely that some wet and windy weather will arrive from the west, whilst high pressure to the northeast continues to give many parts dry weather, perhaps with some snow, mainly on hills.

UK Outlook for Monday 25 Feb 2019 to Monday 11 Mar 2019:

Confidence is rather low during this period. We are likely to see occasional spells of wind and rain arriving from the Atlantic to affect the British Isles, although high pressure is also likely to be sat to our north or northeast and this should help to give plenty of settled weather too. The wet and windy conditions may arrive following a spell of drier and colder weather which may give some snowfall, most likely over high ground, but with the potential for some snow to affect low levels too. Temperatures are set to be around normal overall, but with some short term variations which bring a chance of much colder and milder spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

I was just reading February's forecast by the weather online:

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/month-ahead.htm

Also their seasonal outlook made me chuckle!

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/seasonal-outlook.htm

I was just reading Terry Scholey's forecast for Feb - he goes for colder weather mid month? hmm!? I really disagree and I have no meteorological degree or background in meteorology but I am keen to know where he get's this idea from based on all the models? - that being said they have all been performing very poorly this winter! 

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https://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

"Towards mid-month a quieter interval should see it turning colder more generally, with more widespread frosts and some patchy freezing fog. A very cold spell is then possible with bitter winds until towards the final week when a major change should see Atlantic systems 'attacking' from the South West. This could bring a disruptive snowfall, before much milder air probably pushes up from the South bringing a thaw, although Its northward extent is uncertain at present."

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I think this was written & published last week so good luck to him and I hope he can prove the longer and short to medium range models wrong as they have been so rubbish lately, as i just mentioned!

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Note that the word used in “possible”. That clearly shows it is only a risk and not necessarily a likely scenario.

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Las Vegas has seen its first snow since December 2015

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/photos-snow-makes-a-rare-appearance-in-las-vegas/70007399 

Met office

UK Outlook for Saturday 16 Feb 2019 to Monday 25 Feb 2019:

The weekend is likely to be changeable and rather cloudy, with outbreaks of rain making slow progress across the UK. The rain heaviest over the hills in the west, but generally light in the east. For many it will be mild, but feeling rather cold at times in the northwest where it will be windy with a risk of gales. Early next week likely to remain similar, with further bands of rain slowly and erratically moving eastwards. Temperatures will be generally around or just above normal, but northwestern areas turning colder at times. Thereafter uncertainty increases, although the most likely scenario is that some wet and windy weather will arrive from the west, although there is a chance of some colder weather, with perhaps with some snow, mainly on hills.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 26 Feb 2019 to Tuesday 12 Mar 2019:

Confidence is very low during this period, with no strong signals for either very unsettled weather or prolonged blocking and cold. We are likely to see occasional spells of wind and rain arriving from the Atlantic to affect the British Isles, although high pressure is also likely to be sat to our north or northeast and should help to give some temporary settled spells of weather too. The wet and windy conditions may arrive following a spell of drier and colder weather which may give some snowfall, most likely over high ground, but with the potential for some snow to affect low levels too. Temperatures are set to be around normal overall, but with some short term variations which bring a chance of much colder and milder spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

I was in Las Vegas in Feb/March 2014 and it was +28 to +30c.

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Week ahead

High pressure
Feeling milder
Mainly dry
Often breezy

Into next week

A little cooler
More unsettled

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/47206036

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Saturday 16 Feb 2019 to Monday 25 Feb 2019:

The weekend is likely to be changeable and rather cloudy, with outbreaks of rain making slow progress across the UK. The rain heaviest over the hills in the west, but generally light in the east. For many it will be mild, but feeling rather cold at times in the northwest where it will be windy with a risk of gales. Early next week likely to remain similar, with further bands of rain slowly moving eastwards. Temperatures will be generally around or just above normal, but northwestern areas turning colder at times. Thereafter, uncertainty increases. The most likely scenario is that some wet and windy weather will arrive from the west, although there is a small chance of a spell of colder weather, with perhaps with some snow, mainly on hills.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 26 Feb 2019 to Tuesday 12 Mar 2019:

Confidence is very low during this period, with no strong signals for either very unsettled weather or prolonged blocking and cold. We are likely to see occasional spells of wind and rain arriving from the Atlantic to affect the British Isles, although higher than normal pressure to the north may occasionally build southwards allowing temporary settled spells to develop. The wet and windy conditions may arrive following a prior spell of drier and colder weather to give some snowfall, most likely over high ground, but with the potential for some snow to affect low levels too. Temperatures are likely to be around normal overall, but with some short term variations which bring a chance of much colder and milder spells.

Updated: 00:22 on Tue 12 Feb 2019 GMT

 

Old news that was posted yesterday afternoon

Met office

UK Outlook for Sunday 17 Feb 2019 to Tuesday 26 Feb 2019:

Sunday will be mostly cloudy and dry for England and Wales, whilst western Scotland and Northern Ireland will see outbreaks of rain, which may spread to most places during Monday. It will be breezy for many, away from the south and southeast where lighter winds will lead to some fog patches. Through next week, this pattern is likely to remain similar with outbreaks of rain, pushing into the west and northwest. Eastern and southeastern areas will often be drier, but some rain is still possible here at times. Winds will be strongest towards the northwest and for most it will be mild, although occasionally colder conditions may filter across northern parts. There is a small chance it may turn drier more widely across England and Wales later.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 27 Feb 2019 to Wednesday 13 Mar 2019:

Confidence is low during this period, but to begin with we are likely to see Atlantic weather fronts affecting the northwest, with these perhaps making more progress across the country. This will occasionally bring rain more widely, however with higher pressure remaining close to the east of the UK we may see a continuation of drier than average conditions, especially in the south and east. As we go through March, more of a southeasterly wind may develop, which could bring colder air from the continent across the UK. As frontal systems then come against this, there is the potential for some snow. Overall, temperatures are likely to be near or slightly above average, but with the continued chance of some colder spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Winter goes out on a whimper......... Not that it roared at any point.😂😂

Into next week

Cooler start
Rain in the north & west
Becoming drier & milder
Increasing sunshine

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/47218063

Worth a read but i really doubt it!

However the fact we are expecting high temperatures of +14c or even 15c for a time and in February does make me think that it's too good to be true really and for a winter month that colder weather will come sooner or later!?

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-forecast-snow-deep-13986831 

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often mild and settled days

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Wednesday 13 February—Sunday 17 February

Mostly mild and dry. Some rain in the northwest.

The rest of this week will be often dry and mild for many but north-western parts of the UK will stay breezier with some rain at times. On Wednesday, much of England and Wales will be dry with bright or sunny spells. Scotland and Northern Ireland will be cloudier at times and breezy with spots of rain in places. It will be quite mild for much of the UK with highs of typically 9 to 13 Celsius.

Through Thursday and Friday, large parts of the UK will be dry and settled with some periods of sunshine. South to south-westerly winds will bring mild conditions with highs mostly in the range of 10 to 14 Celsius. A few sheltered spots are likely to reach 15 Celsius, perhaps with north-east Wales experiencing the highest temperatures. However, later on Friday, rain may reach northwest Scotland along with Northern Ireland.

This weekend the mild theme continues. However, western and north-western areas of the UK are likely to become cloudier with patchy rain as fronts edge closer from the Atlantic. The east and south-east of England should remain dry and settled throughout.

Monday 18 February—Sunday 24 February

Damp and breezy initially, then drier and settled

The first few days of next week are likely to become a little less mild with westerly winds freshening for a time and patchy rain spreading eastwards. Rain is most likely in the west and north but some should get through to eastern and southern areas for a time as well. For the second half of next week, it is expected to become calmer and drier as high pressure moves nearer again. There should be some fine and mild days but one or two chilly nights can be expected as well with a touch of night frost in places.

The main uncertainty is over the extent of any rain in the first half of the week - there is a slight chance that high pressure persists, keeping conditions dry and settled throughout.

Monday 25 February—Sunday 10 March

Dry and settled at first, then wetter later.

Indications are that the remainder of February will see a continuation of often dry and settled conditions, thanks to a nearby area of high pressure. There should be some fairly mild days but the nights could be chilly at times with patchy night frosts. No significant cold weather appears likely. However, there are chances that high pressure moves further north than we expect, which could draw in somewhat chillier winds from the east or south-east. In this scenario, temperatures would likely stay nearer to normal for the time of year.

Into early March, high pressure could become replaced by low pressure areas, bringing an increase in rainfall and wind. Wetter and breezier conditions appear to be most likely to develop in the north and west. Central and eastern areas of England could stay relatively dry and calm. It is expected to stay rather mild with a lack of any significant or prolonged cold weather.

Next Update

We will take another look at early March to see if our relatively calm and mild weather is likely to break-down for a time then.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Met office

UK Outlook for Monday 18 Feb 2019 to Wednesday 27 Feb 2019:

Outbreaks of rain should clear to the east on Monday, with brighter weather following. Some showers are likely and these could be heavy, especially in the north. Thereafter there is lower confidence but it is most likely that a spell of more settled weather will arrive from Tuesday and should last for much of next week. Western and northwestern parts are likely to be cloudier with some rain and stronger winds. Daytime temperatures will be around normal, mild for some, but some overnight fog and rural frost is likely. The rest of the month looks likely to bring some further unsettled spells in the far west, with some rain perhaps pushing further eastwards across the UK. Temperatures should remain around or a touch above average for February.

UK Outlook for Thursday 28 Feb 2019 to Thursday 14 Mar 2019:

Confidence is low during this period, but to begin with we are likely to see Atlantic weather fronts affecting the west and northwest, with these perhaps making some progress across the country. These will occasionally bring rain to some places, however with higher pressure remaining close to the east of the UK we are more liltle to see a continuation of drier than average conditions, especially in the south and east. As we go through March, more of a southeasterly wind may develop, which could bring colder air from the continent across the UK. As frontal systems then come against this, there is a small risk for some snow. Overall, temperatures are likely to be near or slightly above average, but with the continued chance of some colder spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Now near or a little above average right out to mid-March. Worst performance by the Met Office I can remember, far worse than the "barbecue summer" as that was a one-off forecast at the start of the season, not a daily updated forecast of an easterly blast that never came.

Yes in the end I did well for snow this winter, amazingly, but it wasn't down to any particularly cold feed, just a lucky low pressure.

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Actually I think the depth of the mildness this week has been underestimated too. 

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Yes at least we all saw snow - or at least most of us! 

But still a very disappointing winter really, esp the fact the SSW and split PV never delivered HLB and of course the fact that both longer and shorter range models have been very poor! 

 

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Met Office 10 day trend forecast by Alex Deakin:

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