You are right if the report in the ST was correct. However, if you look at the skill level of the 10 day European it is way below that and so is the GEFS. Therefore the 46 day European must be significantly less accurate so how do they reach 70% confidence? One assumes they put a heavy weighting on the SSW and it is there that things may need further investigation IMO. 

Good point, but that depends on the definition of skill. The EC46 does have directional skill (warm/cold, high/low pressure) for up to ~3 weeks in winter. I am talking weekly averages over NW Europe. If you examine daily skill using RMSE for a specific location, then of course the model has no skill beyond ~day 7.

Then there is also conditional skill, where the skill horizon is extended even further in certain situations (e.g. strong MJOs).

Met office

UK Outlook for Friday 8 Feb 2019 to Sunday 17 Feb 2019:

It will remain unsettled at the end of next week. A more organised band of cloud and rain will move east during Friday. Meanwhile, Saturday sees rain clear to a mix of sunshine and showers with the most frequent showers likely in the north and west. Some of the showers will likely turn wintry over higher ground here too. The unsettled theme looks set to continue through Sunday and into the following week, with further Atlantic frontal systems bringing spells of wet and windy weather, with perhaps some hill snow in the north. However, there will be some quieter, colder interludes, with perhaps some wintry showers. Temperatures are likely to be near normal, but will fluctuate day-to-day, perhaps milder overall.

UK Outlook for Monday 18 Feb 2019 to Monday 4 Mar 2019:

Very low confidence emerges through the rest of February as to whether a more blocked pattern redevelops or we maintain more of an Atlantic influence, with a more widely unsettled theme continuing through second half of the month. At this stage, it looks as though Atlantic low pressure systems will track further to the south, with high pressure situated to the north. This set up would bring slightly wetter conditions across the south of the UK, with some strong winds at times. Meanwhile, drier than average conditions are likely in the north, although with some coastal showers possible. There is the possibility that frontal systems may bring wintry hazards, particularly if a more east or northeasterly flow develops. Temperatures overall around the average. Low likelihood of widely cold conditions developing.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

So they’ve finally thrown in the towel.

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So they’ve finally thrown in the towel.

cue a decent cold spell, second half😉

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Week ahead

Turning milder
Spells of rain
Windy at times

Into the following week

Drier in the south
Wetter in the north
Fairly mild

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/47110967

So they’ve finally thrown in the towel.

This all panned out EXACTLY as I thought it would. A slow steady watering down then dropped completely. No shock here.

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Met office

UK Outlook for Saturday 9 Feb 2019 to Monday 18 Feb 2019:

Sunshine and showers will affect most areas through the weekend. Showers will be heaviest and most frequent through Saturday, easing through Sunday. It will be windy with a risk of coastal gales, with temperatures around average. The new working week will start largely dry before wind and rain spreads across northern and western areas later on Monday and through Tuesday. Areas further south and east should remain drier and brighter. Any snow is likely to be confined to higher ground in the north, with near normal temperatures for most. There is increasing uncertainty thereafter however it is likely to remain similar. Cloud and rain will spread eastwards across the UK, but this will be interspersed with drier and brighter spells. Overall temperatures will remain close to average.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 19 Feb 2019 to Tuesday 5 Mar 2019:

Very low confidence emerges through the rest of February as to whether a more blocked pattern redevelops or whether we maintain more of an Atlantic influence with a more widely unsettled theme. What currently seems most likely is that there will be rain at times, particularly in the north and west where snow is possible over high ground, and a greater chance of drier, brighter and more settled spells across the south and east. There remains a low likelihood of colder conditions with east or south-easterly winds developing and an increased risk of snow. Temperatures overall are likely to be around average, possibly mild in the northwest at times, but there remains a low likelihood of widely cold conditions developing.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

End of the week

Wet and windy
Risk of gales

Next week

High pressure
Colder nights
Mainly dry

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/47125112

Just going to leave Terry Scholey's February forecast here;

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

I think Terry's done well overall this Winter... If he's right there's more cold weather to come around and after mid-Feb.

Is Terry's January forecast still online somewhere, or only his whole winter one as on that link?

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Met office

UK Outlook for Sunday 10 Feb 2019 to Tuesday 19 Feb 2019:

Sunshine and blustery showers are likely through Sunday. However there is a chance of more persistent rain moving across central and southern areas. The new working week will start largely dry, bright and frosty before becoming more unsettled with strong winds and rain at times, particularly across northern and western areas. Further south and east it should remain drier and brighter. Any snow is likely to be confined to hills in the north, with most places seeing temperatures around where we would expect for early February. Around the middle of the month, things become very uncertain. However there is an increasing chance of it becoming somewhat more settled with drier and perhaps colder conditions developing. The greatest chance of unsettled milder conditions persisting is across the northwest.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 20 Feb 2019 to Wednesday 6 Mar 2019:

It is too early to say for certain what will happen from mid February onwards, so it is best to keep up to date with the latest forecasts. What currently seems more likely is for drier, brighter and somewhat colder conditions to dominate, giving night frosts, more particularly across central and southeastern areas of the UK. However, the situation is finely balanced and spells of milder, more unsettled weather are still likely at times. There is a low likelihood of a spell of more widely cold conditions developing with snow in places, accompanied by easterly winds.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Here's the EC 30 day month ahead forecast for the UK and Europe; https://www.gavsweathervids.com/ec-30-day-month-ahead-forecasts.php …

 

Is Terry's January forecast still online somewhere, or only his whole winter one as on that link?

If you go to that link on Gavin P.'s website, you will see that a number of Terry Scholey's forecasts are shown in descending order with the latest one at the top. This means that the January forecast should still be there, somewhere below that.

 

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Really now for Feb?

Just funny how the first week or two shows milder weather with low pressure system after another!!

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If you go to that link on Gavin P.'s website, you will see that a number of Terry Scholey's forecasts are shown in descending order with the latest one at the top. This means that the January forecast should still be there, somewhere below that.

 

I only see the Feb one and then below that is the whole winter forecast.

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Staying unsettled and cold at times

Monday 18 February—Sunday 3 March

Chance of colder weather setting in

It is likely that the final third of February will see a cold spell developing across the UK. This is most likely to be due to a 'blocked' pattern across northern Europe, this preventing our usual mild flow in from the Atlantic, with an increased chance of easterly or north-easterly winds developing. All areas of the country look colder than normal, and many areas will be drier and less windy than normal. There will be an enhanced risk of snow to lower levels and overnight frosts.

There is some uncertainty over the duration and magnitude of this cold spell, and it seems likely that it will be a relatively short spell of cold weather, with things perhaps returning to nearer normal for the start of March.

Whilst a spell of cold weather is the most likely story, there is an alternative scenario which suggests that we could see the Atlantic maintaining some influence on the weather. This would mean that it wouldn't be as widely cold - temperatures would be nearer normal - and there would be a reduced risk of snow. However, it would probably still be cooler than average for the time of year.

Next Update

We should be able to offer a little more detail regarding the intensity and duration of the cold spell expected later this month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

Let's hope so! Model charts can't get worse if you want cold and snow.

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Late winter forecast from John Hammond

• Drier than normal


• Rather chilly


• Wettest in southwest

Full thought's for subscribers is here https://weathertrending.com/2019/02/02/late-winter-forecast-cold-weather-time/

 

I read his forecast and it's a really brave call from JH.

Plus with many models building HP from the south I am keen to know why he anticipates that the SW will be wetter and NW drier?! Esp looking at latest models - which show the exact opposite. Will see I guess. Time will tell. 

 

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Next week

Mainly dry in south
Some sunshine
Night frosts
Wet & windy at times in north

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/47139018

RIP winter 2018/19

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often unsettled, but rather mild

_________________________________________

Wednesday 6 February—Sunday 10 February

Remaining mild but unsettled

The remainder of this week will continue the mild and unsettled theme which ended last week's cold weather. Most areas will see temperatures near or slightly above average on Wednesday, with the driest, brightest weather across central and eastern portions of the country. An active front is likely to bring more widespread and perhaps heavy rain into southeastern Britain later in the day and overnight. Heavy showers in the north-west will give way to more general rain across western Britain and Northern Ireland later in the night. Thursday will be rather breezy and a little chillier, with bright or sunny spells and occasional showers moving across western and central Britain. Some of these will be heavy and thundery in north-west Scotland, perhaps bringing small hail.

Overnight, it will become mild and increasingly windy, as a warm front brings outbreaks of rain across much of the country from the south-west. Friday will continue to be mild but windy with rather persistent rain in the west, as a deep area of low pressure moves close to Ireland. There is a risk of gales or severe gales developing in southern and western Britain during the evening and overnight. By Saturday, it will remain very blustery with broken cloud for most areas, and a few showers moving into the west, but winds will tend to ease through the day. Scotland could see more general rain, however. Sunday will become a little cooler for all, with wintry showers edging into Scotland from the north, and a risk of some heavy and persistent rain perhaps affecting southern Britain.

Monday 11 February—Sunday 17 February

Wet and windy in the north.Calmer in the south

Next week will start off with a ridge of high pressure located across the UK, meaning there should be a lot of dry, fine and settled weather around. Winds will be generally light, although there is a risk of some wintry showers edging into eastern Britain from the North Sea. There is a risk of a frost for most as skies clear on Monday night, although this looks like being the last widespread frost for a while, as there will be a quick return to mild but often wet and windy conditions from the Atlantic through the rest of the week. Despite this transition to more unsettled conditions, high pressure is expected to build across France and the near Continent through the week, and will occasionally ridge north towards the UK.

Therefore, much of England and Wales can expect to see drier, calmer days interspersed with occasional patchy rain and breezier weather edging in from the west. Northern Britain is more likely to see some windy and perhaps very wet days, with persistent rain moving in from the west at times, although the wettest weather will always be more likely across Scotland. It will be rather mild for all areas, with temperatures remaining a couple of degrees above average thanks to winds predominantly from the west or south-west.

Monday 18 February—Sunday 3 March

Remaining mild, with an unsettled end to the month

As we look beyond mid-month, we can expect to see some major pattern changes; high pressure is likely to remain quite extensive across the UK to start with, allowing mild south or south-westerly airflows to move across the country, and keeping temperatures well above average. There will be a lot of dry and calm weather, however, as weather fronts are kept at bay in the Atlantic. There are then indications that the high-pressure area will begin to move to the north of the UK, opening the door to more frequent rain-bearing Atlantic fronts advancing towards western Britain. Scotland could end up becoming rather wet and windy for a few days, while a few weakening bands of rain could edge across the rest of the country. There is no risk of significant snow.

The outlook for the end of February and into the start of Meteorological Spring has changed, with a mild end to the month now anticipated. Computer models have trended towards a much less cold and 'blocked' weather pattern by this stage, with a reduced probability of widespread high pressure, and a significantly lower risk of snow. However, it is looking to be rather unsettled, with low pressure areas from the Atlantic often moving across the UK from the west. Although these will bring rather mild westerly or south-westerly airflows, they may affect southern and western Britain than northern areas more often. Therefore, some very wet and rather windy weather is expected across most of England and Wales, while temperatures will be nearer to normal in the north, with a small risk of snow at times.

Next Update

We will see if March has any colder weather to offer, or whether we could see an early start to spring.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Met office

UK Outlook for Monday 11 Feb 2019 to Wednesday 20 Feb 2019:

The new working week will start largely dry, bright and frosty with fairly settled conditions. However it will become more unsettled in the northwest early in the week, with strong winds and rain here at times. Any snow is likely to be confined to hills. Southern and eastern areas will have a good deal of dry and often bright weather although overnight fog may become increasingly likely. After a cold start most places should see temperatures around where we would expect for early February but with overnight frosts likely across central and southeastern areas. In these parts generally colder conditions may begin to develop again. Around the middle of the month, things become very uncertain. However there is an increasing chance of more unsettled conditions developing more widely again.

UK Outlook for Thursday 21 Feb 2019 to Thursday 7 Mar 2019:

It is too early to say for certain what will happen from mid February onwards, so it is best to keep up to date with the latest forecasts. What currently seems more likely is for drier, brighter and somewhat colder conditions to dominate, giving night frosts, more particularly across central and southeastern areas of the UK. However, the situation is finely balanced and spells of milder, more unsettled weather are still likely at times, especially in the northwest. There is a low likelihood of a spell of more widely cold conditions developing with snow in places, accompanied by easterly winds.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

RIP winter 2018/19

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often unsettled, but rather mild

_________________________________________

Wednesday 6 February—Sunday 10 February

Remaining mild but unsettled

The remainder of this week will continue the mild and unsettled theme which ended last week's cold weather. Most areas will see temperatures near or slightly above average on Wednesday, with the driest, brightest weather across central and eastern portions of the country. An active front is likely to bring more widespread and perhaps heavy rain into southeastern Britain later in the day and overnight. Heavy showers in the north-west will give way to more general rain across western Britain and Northern Ireland later in the night. Thursday will be rather breezy and a little chillier, with bright or sunny spells and occasional showers moving across western and central Britain. Some of these will be heavy and thundery in north-west Scotland, perhaps bringing small hail.

Overnight, it will become mild and increasingly windy, as a warm front brings outbreaks of rain across much of the country from the south-west. Friday will continue to be mild but windy with rather persistent rain in the west, as a deep area of low pressure moves close to Ireland. There is a risk of gales or severe gales developing in southern and western Britain during the evening and overnight. By Saturday, it will remain very blustery with broken cloud for most areas, and a few showers moving into the west, but winds will tend to ease through the day. Scotland could see more general rain, however. Sunday will become a little cooler for all, with wintry showers edging into Scotland from the north, and a risk of some heavy and persistent rain perhaps affecting southern Britain.

Monday 11 February—Sunday 17 February

Wet and windy in the north.Calmer in the south

Next week will start off with a ridge of high pressure located across the UK, meaning there should be a lot of dry, fine and settled weather around. Winds will be generally light, although there is a risk of some wintry showers edging into eastern Britain from the North Sea. There is a risk of a frost for most as skies clear on Monday night, although this looks like being the last widespread frost for a while, as there will be a quick return to mild but often wet and windy conditions from the Atlantic through the rest of the week. Despite this transition to more unsettled conditions, high pressure is expected to build across France and the near Continent through the week, and will occasionally ridge north towards the UK.

Therefore, much of England and Wales can expect to see drier, calmer days interspersed with occasional patchy rain and breezier weather edging in from the west. Northern Britain is more likely to see some windy and perhaps very wet days, with persistent rain moving in from the west at times, although the wettest weather will always be more likely across Scotland. It will be rather mild for all areas, with temperatures remaining a couple of degrees above average thanks to winds predominantly from the west or south-west.

Monday 18 February—Sunday 3 March

Remaining mild, with an unsettled end to the month

As we look beyond mid-month, we can expect to see some major pattern changes; high pressure is likely to remain quite extensive across the UK to start with, allowing mild south or south-westerly airflows to move across the country, and keeping temperatures well above average. There will be a lot of dry and calm weather, however, as weather fronts are kept at bay in the Atlantic. There are then indications that the high-pressure area will begin to move to the north of the UK, opening the door to more frequent rain-bearing Atlantic fronts advancing towards western Britain. Scotland could end up becoming rather wet and windy for a few days, while a few weakening bands of rain could edge across the rest of the country. There is no risk of significant snow.

The outlook for the end of February and into the start of Meteorological Spring has changed, with a mild end to the month now anticipated. Computer models have trended towards a much less cold and 'blocked' weather pattern by this stage, with a reduced probability of widespread high pressure, and a significantly lower risk of snow. However, it is looking to be rather unsettled, with low pressure areas from the Atlantic often moving across the UK from the west. Although these will bring rather mild westerly or south-westerly airflows, they may affect southern and western Britain than northern areas more often. Therefore, some very wet and rather windy weather is expected across most of England and Wales, while temperatures will be nearer to normal in the north, with a small risk of snow at times.

Next Update

We will see if March has any colder weather to offer, or whether we could see an early start to spring.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

And ONLY A DAY or so I was reading:

Monday 18 February—Sunday 3 March

Chance of colder weather setting in

It is likely that the final third of February will see a cold spell developing across the UK. This is most likely to be due to a 'blocked' pattern across northern Europe, this preventing our usual mild flow in from the Atlantic, with an increased chance of easterly or north-easterly winds developing. All areas of the country look colder than normal, and many areas will be drier and less windy than normal. There will be an enhanced risk of snow to lower levels and overnight frosts.

There is some uncertainty over the duration and magnitude of this cold spell, and it seems likely that it will be a relatively short spell of cold weather, with things perhaps returning to nearer normal for the start of March.

Whilst a spell of cold weather is the most likely story, there is an alternative scenario which suggests that we could see the Atlantic maintaining some influence on the weather. This would mean that it wouldn't be as widely cold - temperatures would be nearer normal - and there would be a reduced risk of snow. However, it would probably still be cooler than average for the time of year.

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