Yes the dilution of the UKM LRF continues and is several days late IMHO.
Can we really get the three winter months CET above average in a winter that, according to several agencies and seasonal models, would contain below average CETs?
I believe we can!

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Have to laugh at "however it is too early to say for sure" considering they have been saying it for about seven weeks now!

 

yes I laughed out loud when I read that. I think most people could have lived with the detritus this winter has offered if it wasn’t for the continued MetO Jam tomorrow comments. Without bashing the Met too much (I do believe they do a good job) they perhaps ran a little too long with this when it was readily apparent to many people that what they were pedalling was complete bull 

Have to laugh at "however it is too early to say for sure" considering they have been saying it for about seven weeks now!

The Met Office said the same of January - from Mid Month and that easterly failed - we all know that! I am not taking any notice of that colder than average weather from mid month etc - They did the same for December if I remember too and they were proved wrong. Met Office has been fine short term but long term it's been rubbish! ALl longer range models are still going for HLB basically but we are just not seeing this appear in the shorter range models.

Update from gavsweathervids: -yet again JMA Friday - it shows blocking and if anything it will strengthen toward end of Feb. 

https://youtu.be/NNTwoCRNCJY

 

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Yes the dilution of the UKM LRF continues and is several days late IMHO.
Can we really get the three winter months CET above average in a winter that, according to several agencies and seasonal models, would contain below average CETs?
I believe we can!

As i predicted a few days back when the caveats to a "cold or very cold" February is looking increasingly likely, I said that the backtrack would be slow and steady rather than just change in one fell swoop. That has proven to be pretty much spot on. I fully expect the chances of a cold "end" to February to go the same way. Their long ranger really had been ridiculous this winter, constantly pushing it back week after week and now finally the penny has dropped that it ain't going to happen. It's frankly embarrassing when we amateurs were scratching our heads looking at it every day and wondering what they were seeing. The answer is nothing. Perhaps they were looking at one of Brian's upside down charts??? 

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Some of the ens runs aren't looking mild, they're looking toasty. It will be interesting to see whether the Met long ranger starts to flag up the possibility of it becoming very mild.

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As i predicted a few days back when the caveats to a "cold or very cold" February is looking increasingly likely, I said that the backtrack would be slow and steady rather than just change in one fell swoop. That has proven to be pretty much spot on. I fully expect the chances of a cold "end" to February to go the same way. Their long ranger really had been ridiculous this winter, constantly pushing it back week after week and now finally the penny has dropped that it ain't going to happen. It's frankly embarrassing when we amateurs were scratching our heads looking at it every day and wondering what they were seeing. The answer is nothing. Perhaps they were looking at one of Brian's upside down charts??? 

True but they did give us one thing to hold on to...hope!! When that bubble finally burst the pill did become very bitter to swallow.

 

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the end of feb last year 28th we had a good dollop of snow IMBY ... might be worth reading terry scholeys month ahead forecast

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

Next week

Less cold
Windy at times
Spells of rain
Hill snow in north

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/47098346

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Staying unsettled and cold at times

Saturday 2 February—Sunday 10 February

Becoming a little milder but staying unsettled

The current cold spell will continue this weekend. Saturday will be a chilly day and although many parts of the country will see some winter sunshine, there will be a few wintry showers too. The showers will be mainly in the north and east, although western Wales and South West England could see the odd shower too. Saturday night will be largely dry with long clear periods, so it will become cold with a widespread frost expected.

Sunday will start dry, clear and cold, but a front will move eastwards across the country during the day. This will bring outbreaks of rain to many areas, and perhaps some sleet or snow. Snow is most likely on high ground in the north of the country, chiefly over Scotland and northern England but cannot be completely ruled out in other areas.

The weather will remain changeable next week as weather systems move in from the Atlantic. These systems will bring showers and more widespread rain to many areas of the country, although there will be some drier and calmer spells of weather too. The start of next week is likely to be chilly but temperatures should pick up to around normal for the time of year, perhaps locally a little above normal. This means that snow is more likely to be confined to high ground in the north of the country. We could still have some chilly nights, although not as cold as we've seen in the last seven days.

Monday 11 February—Sunday 17 February

Becoming a little less mild

In our last update, we mentioned that there was a chance of some colder weather arriving around the middle of February. The reason for this was because we expected high pressure currently over the east and north-east of Europe to start to extend westwards towards the UK, with cooler easterly winds potentially reaching our shores. Whilst this scenario still looks possible, it now seems more likely a little later in the month, with high pressure and cold air slower to spread westwards.

However, we do think that after a relatively mild spell, it will become a little cooler towards the middle of the month. This is mainly due to an expected reduction in the broadly westerly winds coming in from the Atlantic. In this case, it would also become drier. It should be stressed that there is quite a lot of uncertainty for this period of the February, as there is low confidence in the timing of the transition from unsettled westerlies to more of a blocked, settled pattern. We could potentially see low pressure systems continuing to push in from the west, with the weather remaining unsettled, wet and windy but mild. There is only a small risk of anything substantially colder at this stage.

Monday 18 February—Sunday 3 March

Chance of colder weather setting in

It is likely that the final third of February will see a cold spell developing across the UK. This is most likely to be due to a 'blocked' pattern across northern Europe, this preventing our usual mild flow in from the Atlantic, with an increased chance of easterly or north-easterly winds developing. All areas of the country look colder than normal, and many areas will be drier and less windy than normal. There will be an enhanced risk of snow to lower levels and overnight frosts.

There is some uncertainty over the duration and magnitude of this cold spell, and it seems likely that it will be a relatively short spell of cold weather, with things perhaps returning to nearer normal for the start of March.

Whilst a spell of cold weather is the most likely story, there is an alternative scenario which suggests that we could see the Atlantic maintaining some influence on the weather. This would mean that it wouldn't be as widely cold - temperatures would be nearer normal - and there would be a reduced risk of snow. However, it would probably still be cooler than average for the time of year.

Next Update

We should be able to offer a little more detail regarding the intensity and duration of the cold spell expected later this month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Staying unsettled and cold at times

Saturday 2 February—Sunday 10 February

Becoming a little milder but staying unsettled

The current cold spell will continue this weekend. Saturday will be a chilly day and although many parts of the country will see some winter sunshine, there will be a few wintry showers too. The showers will be mainly in the north and east, although western Wales and South West England could see the odd shower too. Saturday night will be largely dry with long clear periods, so it will become cold with a widespread frost expected.

Sunday will start dry, clear and cold, but a front will move eastwards across the country during the day. This will bring outbreaks of rain to many areas, and perhaps some sleet or snow. Snow is most likely on high ground in the north of the country, chiefly over Scotland and northern England but cannot be completely ruled out in other areas.

The weather will remain changeable next week as weather systems move in from the Atlantic. These systems will bring showers and more widespread rain to many areas of the country, although there will be some drier and calmer spells of weather too. The start of next week is likely to be chilly but temperatures should pick up to around normal for the time of year, perhaps locally a little above normal. This means that snow is more likely to be confined to high ground in the north of the country. We could still have some chilly nights, although not as cold as we've seen in the last seven days.

Monday 11 February—Sunday 17 February

Becoming a little less mild

In our last update, we mentioned that there was a chance of some colder weather arriving around the middle of February. The reason for this was because we expected high pressure currently over the east and north-east of Europe to start to extend westwards towards the UK, with cooler easterly winds potentially reaching our shores. Whilst this scenario still looks possible, it now seems more likely a little later in the month, with high pressure and cold air slower to spread westwards.

However, we do think that after a relatively mild spell, it will become a little cooler towards the middle of the month. This is mainly due to an expected reduction in the broadly westerly winds coming in from the Atlantic. In this case, it would also become drier. It should be stressed that there is quite a lot of uncertainty for this period of the February, as there is low confidence in the timing of the transition from unsettled westerlies to more of a blocked, settled pattern. We could potentially see low pressure systems continuing to push in from the west, with the weather remaining unsettled, wet and windy but mild. There is only a small risk of anything substantially colder at this stage.

Monday 18 February—Sunday 3 March

Chance of colder weather setting in

It is likely that the final third of February will see a cold spell developing across the UK. This is most likely to be due to a 'blocked' pattern across northern Europe, this preventing our usual mild flow in from the Atlantic, with an increased chance of easterly or north-easterly winds developing. All areas of the country look colder than normal, and many areas will be drier and less windy than normal. There will be an enhanced risk of snow to lower levels and overnight frosts.

There is some uncertainty over the duration and magnitude of this cold spell, and it seems likely that it will be a relatively short spell of cold weather, with things perhaps returning to nearer normal for the start of March.

Whilst a spell of cold weather is the most likely story, there is an alternative scenario which suggests that we could see the Atlantic maintaining some influence on the weather. This would mean that it wouldn't be as widely cold - temperatures would be nearer normal - and there would be a reduced risk of snow. However, it would probably still be cooler than average for the time of year.

Next Update

We should be able to offer a little more detail regarding the intensity and duration of the cold spell expected later this month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Hmmm, interesting, and definitely somewhat at odds with the thoughts of quite a lot of people on the model thread this morning.

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It’s the same story that’s been churned out for the last eight weeks. Of course those of us who’ve been around for years know that whatever the signals and computers say the weather will do what the hell it likes 😎

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It’s the same story that’s been churned out for the last eight weeks. Of course those of us who’ve been around for years know that whatever the signals and computers say the weather will do what the hell it likes 😎

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It’s the same story that’s been churned out for the last eight weeks. Of course those of us who’ve been around for years know that whatever the signals and computers say the weather will do what the hell it likes 😎

One thing of note is how little we should place our faith in these background signals, it’s quite evident this winter how we simply don’t understand them fully and/or misread them. Of course that doesn’t equate to throwing in the towel but rather accepting our limitations in forecasting beyond seven days.

 

Hmmm, interesting, and definitely somewhat at odds with the thoughts of quite a lot of people on the model thread this morning.

And it will be wrong David. This is just following the watered down Met Office forecast. All cold references will be dropped in the next update if the models are to be believed.

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The difficulty is that the job they have is to report what the models are showing and to not make this up. They look at the models and tell us what they are showing, so when it changes they change the forecast - simple really. I don’t know how we can criticise for this, frustrating I know, but it is what it is.
Martin

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Met office

UK Outlook for Thursday 7 Feb 2019 to Saturday 16 Feb 2019:

It will remain unsettled at the end of next week, with a mixture of sunshine and showers affecting many areas, especially on Thursday. The showers will be heaviest and most frequent in the north and west, where possibly wintry on hills. Driest conditions likely to persist in the southeast. A more organised band of cloud and rain may affect western and southwestern parts, with coastal gales, before moving east during Friday. The unsettled theme looks set to continue into the weekend and into the following week, with further Atlantic frontal systems bringing spells of wet and windy weather, with perhaps some hill snow in the north. However, there will be some quieter, colder interludes. Temperatures are likely to be near normal, but with fluctuate day-to-day, perhaps milder overall.

UK Outlook for Sunday 17 Feb 2019 to Sunday 3 Mar 2019:

The most likely scenario is for the weather to get colder again from mid to late February, however confidence is low. The most common weather in this period is likely to be cold days with occasional wintry showers, and frosty nights. However, some rain and unsettled weather remain a possibility, especially in the northwest. There will also be milder spells though, most likely in the south. Towards late February a longer cold spell looks possible, perhaps due to winds from the east, however it is too early to say for sure, and there is also a chance that milder and wetter weather will arrive from the Atlantic.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

The difficulty is that the job they have is to report what the models are showing and to not make this up. They look at the models and tell us what they are showing, so when it changes they change the forecast - simple really. I don’t know how we can criticise for this, frustrating I know, but it is what it is.
Martin

I think it would be helpful if they were clearer about now confident they are when making forecasts... For instance, when they forecasted cold/very cold weather in February, were they 60/70/80/90% confident...  That would temper expectations I think. For instance, 70% confidence would imply nearly a 1 in 3 chance of it not coming off - anyone who still remained unduly confident clearly would be very foolish.

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The difficulty is that the job they have is to report what the models are showing and to not make this up. They look at the models and tell us what they are showing, so when it changes they change the forecast - simple really. I don’t know how we can criticise for this, frustrating I know, but it is what it is.
Martin

It seems they get criticised in here when the models looking out 10-14 days don't reflect their forecasts that run beyond that period and then get criticised some more when they do change the forecast.

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I think it would be helpful if they were clearer about now confident they are when making forecasts... For instance, when they forecasted cold/very cold weather in February, were they 60/70/80/90% confident...  That would temper expectations I think. For instance, 70% confidence would imply nearly a 1 in 3 chance of it not coming off - anyone who still remained unduly confident clearly would be very foolish.

As I recall the figure they gave to the government was 70% confident of very cold weather. That does mean virtually a one in three chance of it not happening.

At what point do you regard something as 'very likely' (and then get disappointed when if it doesn't happen)?  I would have said towards 90% - and longer range forecasts don't ever come with that level of confidence, AFAIK.

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As I recall the figure they gave to the government was 70% confident of very cold weather. That does mean virtually a one in three chance of it not happening.

At what point do you regard something as 'very likely' (and then get disappointed when if it doesn't happen)?  I would have said towards 90% - and longer range forecasts don't ever come with that level of confidence, AFAIK.

You are right if the report in the ST was correct. However, if you look at the skill level of the 10 day European it is way below that and so is the GEFS. Therefore the 46 day European must be significantly less accurate so how do they reach 70% confidence? One assumes they put a heavy weighting on the SSW and it is there that things may need further investigation IMO. 

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