David M Porter
30 January 2019 23:38:07

What is interesting IMO is that the most recent montly outlook issued by the BBC is still going for cold from mid-February. I remember someone saying some weeks ago that of the updates issued by the two forecasters this winter, those written by the BBC/Meteogroup have been nearer the mark in terms of what has actually happened. The BBC, I seem to recall, were somewhat less keen back in late November/early December on early winter cold compared to what was said in the MetO outlooks at the time.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
tallyho_83
31 January 2019 02:43:17
Didn't know if I shared this but interesting esp his last sentence:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/47006603 

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Gavin D
31 January 2019 09:03:20

Prankster dupes BBC weather forecaster by sending in snow picture claiming his name is 'I C Rhodes'


A prankster duped a weather forecaster on the BBC by pretending his name was “I C Rhodes”. BBC Weather’s Simon King was talking to viewers about the UK’s frosty forecast on Tuesday in front of a background which showed a road blanketed in snow in Strathaven.


However, eagle-eyed viewers noticed the picture was sent in by a prankster called “I C Rhodes”. The windup was branded “genius” by some on social media, while another wrote: “A photo of a snowy road has been sent in by ‘I C Rhodes’. I think the BBC have been had here.”


http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/prankster-dupes-bbc-weather-forecaster-by-sending-in-snow-picture-claiming-his-name-is-i-c-rhodes/ar-BBSXE8v?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=ACERDHP17


Chelsea
31 January 2019 09:54:28
I can see some backtracking going on. Simon King at 730ish said disruptive snow later today to include London and the south East. At 930ish he is now saying not certain how much snow greater London will get. By the end of the day he may be saying get out your shorts as the temperatures will be at record levels 🙂
Notty
31 January 2019 10:31:48
Amber warning for heavy snow just issued 🙂
Notty
Pontypool, 132m asl
warrenb
31 January 2019 10:37:18
I think the two posts above now illustrate the issue of having a national weather service but the national TV service getting there data from elsewhere.
Gavin D
31 January 2019 11:48:52
Met office

UK Outlook for Tuesday 5 Feb 2019 to Thursday 14 Feb 2019:

Through the middle and end of next week it will be less cold than we have had recently, but still with frost and ice likely overnight. Weather fronts will bring bands of rain and hill snow from the north and west, which will tend to peter out as they reach southeastern parts of the UK. Between these spells of wet weather there will be drier and brighter periods. The wind will be brisk at times, with gales around exposed coasts and over higher ground. Towards the middle of February, it may become more settled with longer spells of drier weather. However, northwestern areas are still likely to see rain and probably hill snow at times. Temperatures will be around normal for the time of year, with some overnight frosts.

UK Outlook for Friday 15 Feb 2019 to Friday 1 Mar 2019:

Generally cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather through mid to late February, however confidence is low. The weather is likely to be a mixture of cold days with wintry showers, and more persistently wet days when Atlantic fronts bring rain and milder interludes across the UK. Towards late February there is the possibility of a colder spell brought to the UK by winds from the east, however it is too early to say for sure, and there is also a chance that milder wetter weather will continue to arrive from the Atlantic.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 
Rob K
31 January 2019 11:58:21
So the mention of turning colder at the end of the first period has now disappeared, and instead "temperatures will be around normal". The ferret has almost competed its reverse.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
backtobasics
31 January 2019 12:26:55

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

So the mention of turning colder at the end of the first period has now disappeared, and instead "temperatures will be around normal". The ferret has almost competed its reverse.


All of this of course has no influence on the weather we'll get for the remainder of the winter, I really don't take any notice of these 30 dayers. (he says typing on the thread discussing them)  


Last years late winter Easterlies were great, so good in fact id swap it this year for an early Spring 

Brian Gaze
31 January 2019 13:00:16

Another measured but very significant change in the Met long ranger today. No criticism intended because I try and call the good and bad! This winter still has 4 weeks to run but it's now possible Dec/Jan/Feb could all be above CET. From recollection I think most of the independent European agencies / forecasters also favoured an average to cold UK winter, so the Met weren't out on a limb by any means. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Solar Cycles
31 January 2019 13:02:38

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Another measured but very significant change in the Met long ranger today. No criticism intended because I try and call the good and bad! This winter still has 4 weeks to run but it's now possible Dec/Jan/Feb could all be above CET. From recollection I think most of the independent European agencies / forecasters were also favouring an average to cold UK winter, so the Met weren't out on a limb by any means. 


The writing was on the wall a week ago IMO. Lessons will no doubt be learnt and implemented into future modelling.

Brian Gaze
31 January 2019 13:09:51

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


The writing was on the wall a week ago IMO. Lessons will no doubt be learnt and implemented into future modelling.



Indeed. One thing I've noticed a lot in the last 12 months is the GEFS has often shown a pattern locking in for 16 days but then "bumps in the road" appear at short notice. It was the same last summer when bursts of warmth (mainly in the south during July and early August) bubbled up. I would put money on the ECM ensembles being very similar and that will be the main reason the Met have doggedly kept the cold outlook until now.  


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Rob K
31 January 2019 13:12:44

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Another measured but very significant change in the Met long ranger today. No criticism intended because I try and call the good and bad! This winter still has 4 weeks to run but it's now possible Dec/Jan/Feb could all be above CET. From recollection I think most of the independent European agencies / forecasters also favoured an average to cold UK winter, so the Met weren't out on a limb by any means. 



Not just possible but more likely than not, I would say. The first two weeks of Feb look nailed on to be above average, and I've certainly gone well above average with my Feb guess in the CET competition. The second half of the month could scupper that, but I have a feeling it won't.


 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Snow Hoper
31 January 2019 16:18:48

Some other events close by for some people over the weekend largely not getting much attention due to tonight's interest. Not seen much evidence of this but my local says....


 


Outlook for Saturday to Monday: Weather becoming less cold but markedly more uncertain. Sunshine and wintry showers Saturday. Sunday starting dry, but rain, sleet and snow possible later. Probably unsettled on Monday. Overnight frosts continuing. Updated: 12:32 on Thu 31 Jan 2019 GMT


 


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/forecast/u12cdh7vk#?date=2019-02-02


Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
Weathermac
31 January 2019 16:36:07

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


Not just possible but more likely than not, I would say. The first two weeks of Feb look nailed on to be above average, and I've certainly gone well above average with my Feb guess in the CET competition. The second half of the month could scupper that, but I have a feeling it won't.


 



Yes it looks like the Yanks have scuppered our chances of anything severely cold this winter now after the next 24 hours its looking average winter fare with temps average or maybe slightly above.


All very disappointing as it promised so much but has delivered pretty well nothing really in my area of the Midlands.

Gavin D
31 January 2019 21:51:22

Next week


Little less cold
Windy at times
Spells of rain
Hill snow in north


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/47081768

Crepuscular Ray
31 January 2019 22:25:02

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Next week


Little less cold
Windy at times
Spells of rain
Hill snow in north


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/47081768



Stav also had a Scandi High at the end and said cold air never too far away so stay tuned. Deeper shades of blue over central and eastern Europe were moving West.....hmmmm


Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
Gavin D
01 February 2019 12:42:27
Met office

UK Outlook for Wednesday 6 Feb 2019 to Friday 15 Feb 2019:

From the middle of next week, it will become less cold than recently, with night frost and ice risk retreating to the north. Weather fronts will bring bands of rain and strong winds to the west, which will tend to peter out as they reach some eastern parts. Any snow will be on Scottish mountains. The wind will be brisk at times, with gales around exposed coasts and over higher ground. Between these spells of wet weather there will be drier and brighter periods. Towards the middle of February, longer spells of drier weather become more likely. However, northwestern areas are still likely to see rain and perhaps hill snow at times. Temperatures will be around normal for the time of year, with some overnight frosts at times.

UK Outlook for Friday 15 Feb 2019 to Friday 1 Mar 2019:

Generally cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather through mid to late February, however confidence is low. The weather is likely to be a mixture of cold days with wintry showers, and more persistently wet days when Atlantic fronts bring rain and milder interludes across the UK. Towards late February there is the possibility of a colder spell brought to the UK by winds from the east, however it is too early to say for sure, and there is also a chance that milder wetter weather will continue to arrive from the Atlantic.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 
Arcus
01 February 2019 12:49:16

That outlook for the longer term wasn't updated, but it has been now:


Saturday 16 Feb - Saturday 2 Mar


The most likely scenario is for the weather to get colder again from mid to late February, however confidence is low. The most common weather in this period is likely to be cold days with occasional wintry showers, and frosty nights. However, some rain and unsettled weather remain a possibility, especially in the northwest. There will also be milder spells though, most likely in the south. Towards late February a longer cold spell looks possible, perhaps due to winds from the east, however it is too early to say for sure, and there is also a chance that milder and wetter weather will arrive from the Atlantic.



Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Rob K
01 February 2019 12:52:56
Have to laugh at "however it is too early to say for sure" considering they have been saying it for about seven weeks now!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
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