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Gavin D
02 February 2019 13:26:41
Met office

UK Outlook for Thursday 7 Feb 2019 to Saturday 16 Feb 2019:

It will remain unsettled at the end of next week, with a mixture of sunshine and showers affecting many areas, especially on Thursday. The showers will be heaviest and most frequent in the north and west, where possibly wintry on hills. Driest conditions likely to persist in the southeast. A more organised band of cloud and rain may affect western and southwestern parts, with coastal gales, before moving east during Friday. The unsettled theme looks set to continue into the weekend and into the following week, with further Atlantic frontal systems bringing spells of wet and windy weather, with perhaps some hill snow in the north. However, there will be some quieter, colder interludes. Temperatures are likely to be near normal, but with fluctuate day-to-day, perhaps milder overall.

UK Outlook for Sunday 17 Feb 2019 to Sunday 3 Mar 2019:

The most likely scenario is for the weather to get colder again from mid to late February, however confidence is low. The most common weather in this period is likely to be cold days with occasional wintry showers, and frosty nights. However, some rain and unsettled weather remain a possibility, especially in the northwest. There will also be milder spells though, most likely in the south. Towards late February a longer cold spell looks possible, perhaps due to winds from the east, however it is too early to say for sure, and there is also a chance that milder and wetter weather will arrive from the Atlantic.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 
Chiltern Blizzard
02 February 2019 13:34:31

The difficulty is that the job they have is to report what the models are showing and to not make this up. They look at the models and tell us what they are showing, so when it changes they change the forecast - simple really. I don’t know how we can criticise for this, frustrating I know, but it is what it is.
Martin

Originally Posted by: marting 


I think it would be helpful if they were clearer about now confident they are when making forecasts... For instance, when they forecasted cold/very cold weather in February, were they 60/70/80/90% confident...  That would temper expectations I think. For instance, 70% confidence would imply nearly a 1 in 3 chance of it not coming off - anyone who still remained unduly confident clearly would be very foolish.


Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Gandalf The White
02 February 2019 13:37:33

The difficulty is that the job they have is to report what the models are showing and to not make this up. They look at the models and tell us what they are showing, so when it changes they change the forecast - simple really. I don’t know how we can criticise for this, frustrating I know, but it is what it is.
Martin

Originally Posted by: marting 



It seems they get criticised in here when the models looking out 10-14 days don't reflect their forecasts that run beyond that period and then get criticised some more when they do change the forecast.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
02 February 2019 13:47:02


 


I think it would be helpful if they were clearer about now confident they are when making forecasts... For instance, when they forecasted cold/very cold weather in February, were they 60/70/80/90% confident...  That would temper expectations I think. For instance, 70% confidence would imply nearly a 1 in 3 chance of it not coming off - anyone who still remained unduly confident clearly would be very foolish.


Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 


As I recall the figure they gave to the government was 70% confident of very cold weather. That does mean virtually a one in three chance of it not happening.


At what point do you regard something as 'very likely' (and then get disappointed when if it doesn't happen)?  I would have said towards 90% - and longer range forecasts don't ever come with that level of confidence, AFAIK.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Brian Gaze
02 February 2019 13:53:59


 


As I recall the figure they gave to the government was 70% confident of very cold weather. That does mean virtually a one in three chance of it not happening.


At what point do you regard something as 'very likely' (and then get disappointed when if it doesn't happen)?  I would have said towards 90% - and longer range forecasts don't ever come with that level of confidence, AFAIK.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


You are right if the report in the ST was correct. However, if you look at the skill level of the 10 day European it is way below that and so is the GEFS. Therefore the 46 day European must be significantly less accurate so how do they reach 70% confidence? One assumes they put a heavy weighting on the SSW and it is there that things may need further investigation IMO. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Gandalf The White
02 February 2019 14:17:20


 


You are right if the report in the ST was correct. However, if you look at the skill level of the 10 day European it is way below that and so is the GEFS. Therefore the 46 day European must be significantly less accurate so how do they reach 70% confidence? One assumes they put a heavy weighting on the SSW and it is there that things may need further investigation IMO. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Yes, that was the source.


The key point, especially given the lower skill levels to which you allude, is that the long range forecasts are probably more likely not to verify - if the figure is below 50%.  


If everyone viewed the forecasts against the backdrop that they're at best 50-50 predictions there might be less angst.



Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Solar Cycles
02 February 2019 14:24:01


 


You are right if the report in the ST was correct. However, if you look at the skill level of the 10 day European it is way below that and so is the GEFS. Therefore the 46 day European must be significantly less accurate so how do they reach 70% confidence? One assumes they put a heavy weighting on the SSW and it is there that things may need further investigation IMO. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I find it odd that they'll put that much faith in a SSW knowing that all it does is increases our chances of cold, but 70% I highly doubt that.

Gandalf The White
02 February 2019 14:26:13


I find it odd that they'll put that much faith in a SSW knowing that all it does is increases our chances of cold, but 70% I highly doubt that.


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


But, as Brian said, it was perhaps at best a weighting. There must have been other background signals as well because the forecasters are very aware that there are multiple factors that determine our weather patterns.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Solar Cycles
02 February 2019 14:35:54


 


But, as Brian said, it was perhaps at best a weighting. There must have been other background signals as well because the forecasters are very aware that there are multiple factors that determine our weather patterns.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

We had a QBO descending into its westerly phase and a weakish Nino alongside unfavourable Atlantic SST’s. Add to that an MJO forecast which chopped and changed as much as the model output then I’m can’t see why ( other than what GLOSEA was showing ) they had such a high level of confidence going into this winter.

JACKO4EVER
02 February 2019 14:42:57


We had a QBO descending into its westerly phase and a weakish Nino alongside unfavourable Atlantic SST’s. Add to that an MJO forecast which chopped and changed as much as the model output then I’m can’t see why ( other than what GLOSEA was showing ) they had such a high level of confidence going into this winter.


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


bang on post 


and I see they are still peddling a watered down version of the same guff we have been listening to since December. 

doctormog
02 February 2019 14:47:09
With this past week seeing widespread snow, well below average temperatures and the coldest temperature for seven years they were nit that far off in spotting the cold at the end of January/early February. What we didn’t get was the much signposted easterly, although looking at the forecasts it seems like the signals are still there for one at some stage on the coming weeks.

They forecast what the empirical evidence shows, if anything it shows e limitation of the models and chaotic, unpredictable nature of our weather. I would love to see and am yet to see anyone do better.
marting
02 February 2019 14:48:14


 


bang on post 


and I see they are still peddling a watered down version of the same guff we have been listening to since December. 


Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


ah but the buff they are posting is what the models show! Not guff for made up purposes. They still can only write what they see, not matter how wrong it may eventually be. Very tricky thing when people take things as a definite rather than a possibility given 5bat we know it is not an exact science past one day😬


martin


Martin
Greasby, Wirral.
Gandalf The White
02 February 2019 15:48:17


 


bang on post 


and I see they are still peddling a watered down version of the same guff we have been listening to since December. 


Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


Sometimes I wonder why we bother explaining how the forecasts are produced.



Your choice of words is extraordinary.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


JACKO4EVER
02 February 2019 16:04:52


 


Sometimes I wonder why we bother explaining how the forecasts are produced.



Your choice of words is extraordinary.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Please elaborate?


the proof of the pudding is in the eating. This wintery outlook should have been dropped IMO at least a week before it has been. 


You think GLOSEA has been bang on the money? we all have an opinion- I think I’m quite justified in mine 🤗

Solar Cycles
02 February 2019 16:09:39

With this past week seeing widespread snow, well below average temperatures and the coldest temperature for seven years they were nit that far off in spotting the cold at the end of January/early February. What we didn’t get was the much signposted easterly, although looking at the forecasts it seems like the signals are still there for one at some stage on the coming weeks.

They forecast what the empirical evidence shows, if anything it shows e limitation of the models and chaotic, unpredictable nature of our weather. I would love to see and am yet to see anyone do better.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Indeed, but  perhaps they need to look at how they present these. We’re still no nearer in predicting beyond seven days than we were some 30 years ago and beyond for these shores unfortunately.

Gandalf The White
02 February 2019 16:17:19


 


Please elaborate?


the proof of the pudding is in the eating. This wintery outlook should have been dropped IMO at least a week before it has been. 


You think GLOSEA has been bang on the money? we all have an opinion- I think I’m quite justified in mine 🤗


Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


I was talking about the fact that despite several people explaining the underlying processes, the issues and the limitations there's still a tendency for people to use emotive language and be unduly critical.


All you've done is reinforce my point.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Chiltern Blizzard
02 February 2019 16:19:50


 


Yes, that was the source.


The key point, especially given the lower skill levels to which you allude, is that the long range forecasts are probably more likely not to verify - if the figure is below 50%.  


If everyone viewed the forecasts against the backdrop that they're at best 50-50 predictions there might be less angst.



Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


If that’s the case, there seems very little point in LRFs!  Indeed, you could say they are worse than useless if they’re 50:50, as they are simply likely to give false confidence to people.


Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
JACKO4EVER
02 February 2019 16:24:55


 


I was talking about the fact that despite several people explaining the underlying processes, the issues and the limitations there's still a tendency for people to use emotive language and be unduly critical.


All you've done is reinforce my point.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


all I’ve done is state an opinion which is backed by outcome, or as some might say fact. You still haven’t answered my question regards GLOSEA. 


As pointed out the other day I am a supporter of MetO, but that still doesn’t hide the fact that the long range has been poor. No pats on the back from me that is for sure and I won’t apologise for holding that view. 

Gavin P
02 February 2019 16:42:47

Just going to leave Terry Scholey's February forecast here;


https://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html


I think Terry's done well overall this Winter... If he's right there's more cold weather to come around and after mid-Feb.


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
David M Porter
02 February 2019 17:06:21

With this past week seeing widespread snow, well below average temperatures and the coldest temperature for seven years they were nit that far off in spotting the cold at the end of January/early February. What we didn’t get was the much signposted easterly, although looking at the forecasts it seems like the signals are still there for one at some stage on the coming weeks.

They forecast what the empirical evidence shows, if anything it shows e limitation of the models and chaotic, unpredictable nature of our weather. I would love to see and am yet to see anyone do better.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Great post, Michael.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
David M Porter
02 February 2019 17:09:47


And it will be wrong David. This is just following the watered down Met Office forecast. All cold references will be dropped in the next update if the models are to be believed.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Well if you are so confident about that, then maybe you should be working for either MetO or Meteogroup, who are now the BBC's forecast provider. If you were, you would be better placed to comment on what forecast information they have at their disposal before you claim they are right or wrong before the event.


Perhaps you should take up a career as a fortune teller, given that you seem to be so confident about what happens in the future?


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
moomin75
02 February 2019 18:52:53


 


Well if you are so confident about that, then maybe you should be working for either MetO or Meteogroup, who are now the BBC's forecast provider. If you were, you would be better placed to comment on what forecast information they have at their disposal before you claim they are right or wrong before the event.


Perhaps you should take up a career as a fortune teller, given that you seem to be so confident about what happens in the future?


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Pretty confident David but will be happy to be wrong. 


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Gavin D
02 February 2019 19:20:07

Into the following week (WC 11th)


Drier in the south
Wetter in the north
Staying mild


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/47105197

Gavin D
02 February 2019 19:37:02

Late winter forecast from John Hammond



  • Drier than normal

  • Rather chilly

  • Wettest in southwest


Full thought's for subscribers is here https://weathertrending.com/2019/02/02/late-winter-forecast-cold-weather-time/

Solar Cycles
02 February 2019 20:11:24


Just going to leave Terry Scholey's February forecast here;


https://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html


I think Terry's done well overall this Winter... If he's right there's more cold weather to come around and after mid-Feb.


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Thanks Gav.


Terry’s the only one whose been anywhere near this winter ( he’s never far out in all time I’ve been reading them ) so kudos to him again.

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