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Solar Cycles
31 January 2019 13:02:38


Another measured but very significant change in the Met long ranger today. No criticism intended because I try and call the good and bad! This winter still has 4 weeks to run but it's now possible Dec/Jan/Feb could all be above CET. From recollection I think most of the independent European agencies / forecasters were also favouring an average to cold UK winter, so the Met weren't out on a limb by any means. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

The writing was on the wall a week ago IMO. Lessons will no doubt be learnt and implemented into future modelling.

Brian Gaze
31 January 2019 13:09:51


The writing was on the wall a week ago IMO. Lessons will no doubt be learnt and implemented into future modelling.


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


Indeed. One thing I've noticed a lot in the last 12 months is the GEFS has often shown a pattern locking in for 16 days but then "bumps in the road" appear at short notice. It was the same last summer when bursts of warmth (mainly in the south during July and early August) bubbled up. I would put money on the ECM ensembles being very similar and that will be the main reason the Met have doggedly kept the cold outlook until now.  


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Rob K
31 January 2019 13:12:44


Another measured but very significant change in the Met long ranger today. No criticism intended because I try and call the good and bad! This winter still has 4 weeks to run but it's now possible Dec/Jan/Feb could all be above CET. From recollection I think most of the independent European agencies / forecasters also favoured an average to cold UK winter, so the Met weren't out on a limb by any means. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Not just possible but more likely than not, I would say. The first two weeks of Feb look nailed on to be above average, and I've certainly gone well above average with my Feb guess in the CET competition. The second half of the month could scupper that, but I have a feeling it won't.


 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Snow Hoper
31 January 2019 16:18:48

Some other events close by for some people over the weekend largely not getting much attention due to tonight's interest. Not seen much evidence of this but my local says....


 


Outlook for Saturday to Monday: Weather becoming less cold but markedly more uncertain. Sunshine and wintry showers Saturday. Sunday starting dry, but rain, sleet and snow possible later. Probably unsettled on Monday. Overnight frosts continuing. Updated: 12:32 on Thu 31 Jan 2019 GMT


 


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/forecast/u12cdh7vk#?date=2019-02-02


Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
Weathermac
31 January 2019 16:36:07


 


Not just possible but more likely than not, I would say. The first two weeks of Feb look nailed on to be above average, and I've certainly gone well above average with my Feb guess in the CET competition. The second half of the month could scupper that, but I have a feeling it won't.


 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Yes it looks like the Yanks have scuppered our chances of anything severely cold this winter now after the next 24 hours its looking average winter fare with temps average or maybe slightly above.


All very disappointing as it promised so much but has delivered pretty well nothing really in my area of the Midlands.

Gavin D
31 January 2019 21:51:22

Next week


Little less cold
Windy at times
Spells of rain
Hill snow in north


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/47081768

Crepuscular Ray
31 January 2019 22:25:02


Next week


Little less cold
Windy at times
Spells of rain
Hill snow in north


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/47081768


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Stav also had a Scandi High at the end and said cold air never too far away so stay tuned. Deeper shades of blue over central and eastern Europe were moving West.....hmmmm


Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
Gavin D
01 February 2019 12:42:27
Met office

UK Outlook for Wednesday 6 Feb 2019 to Friday 15 Feb 2019:

From the middle of next week, it will become less cold than recently, with night frost and ice risk retreating to the north. Weather fronts will bring bands of rain and strong winds to the west, which will tend to peter out as they reach some eastern parts. Any snow will be on Scottish mountains. The wind will be brisk at times, with gales around exposed coasts and over higher ground. Between these spells of wet weather there will be drier and brighter periods. Towards the middle of February, longer spells of drier weather become more likely. However, northwestern areas are still likely to see rain and perhaps hill snow at times. Temperatures will be around normal for the time of year, with some overnight frosts at times.

UK Outlook for Friday 15 Feb 2019 to Friday 1 Mar 2019:

Generally cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather through mid to late February, however confidence is low. The weather is likely to be a mixture of cold days with wintry showers, and more persistently wet days when Atlantic fronts bring rain and milder interludes across the UK. Towards late February there is the possibility of a colder spell brought to the UK by winds from the east, however it is too early to say for sure, and there is also a chance that milder wetter weather will continue to arrive from the Atlantic.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 
Arcus
01 February 2019 12:49:16

That outlook for the longer term wasn't updated, but it has been now:


Saturday 16 Feb - Saturday 2 Mar

The most likely scenario is for the weather to get colder again from mid to late February, however confidence is low. The most common weather in this period is likely to be cold days with occasional wintry showers, and frosty nights. However, some rain and unsettled weather remain a possibility, especially in the northwest. There will also be milder spells though, most likely in the south. Towards late February a longer cold spell looks possible, perhaps due to winds from the east, however it is too early to say for sure, and there is also a chance that milder and wetter weather will arrive from the Atlantic.



Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Rob K
01 February 2019 12:52:56
Have to laugh at "however it is too early to say for sure" considering they have been saying it for about seven weeks now!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
nsrobins
01 February 2019 12:54:19
Yes the dilution of the UKM LRF continues and is several days late IMHO.
Can we really get the three winter months CET above average in a winter that, according to several agencies and seasonal models, would contain below average CETs?
I believe we can!

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
JACKO4EVER
01 February 2019 13:10:57

Have to laugh at "however it is too early to say for sure" considering they have been saying it for about seven weeks now!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


yes I laughed out loud when I read that. I think most people could have lived with the detritus this winter has offered if it wasn’t for the continued MetO Jam tomorrow comments. Without bashing the Met too much (I do believe they do a good job) they perhaps ran a little too long with this when it was readily apparent to many people that what they were pedalling was complete bull 

tallyho_83
01 February 2019 14:20:51

Have to laugh at "however it is too early to say for sure" considering they have been saying it for about seven weeks now!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


The Met Office said the same of January - from Mid Month and that easterly failed - we all know that! I am not taking any notice of that colder than average weather from mid month etc - They did the same for December if I remember too and they were proved wrong. Met Office has been fine short term but long term it's been rubbish! ALl longer range models are still going for HLB basically but we are just not seeing this appear in the shorter range models.


Update from gavsweathervids: -yet again JMA Friday - it shows blocking and if anything it will strengthen toward end of Feb. 


https://youtu.be/NNTwoCRNCJY


 


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


moomin75
02 February 2019 08:31:12

Yes the dilution of the UKM LRF continues and is several days late IMHO.
Can we really get the three winter months CET above average in a winter that, according to several agencies and seasonal models, would contain below average CETs?
I believe we can!

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

As i predicted a few days back when the caveats to a "cold or very cold" February is looking increasingly likely, I said that the backtrack would be slow and steady rather than just change in one fell swoop. That has proven to be pretty much spot on. I fully expect the chances of a cold "end" to February to go the same way. Their long ranger really had been ridiculous this winter, constantly pushing it back week after week and now finally the penny has dropped that it ain't going to happen. It's frankly embarrassing when we amateurs were scratching our heads looking at it every day and wondering what they were seeing. The answer is nothing. Perhaps they were looking at one of Brian's upside down charts??? 


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Brian Gaze
02 February 2019 08:34:17

Some of the ens runs aren't looking mild, they're looking toasty. It will be interesting to see whether the Met long ranger starts to flag up the possibility of it becoming very mild.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
roadrunnerajn
02 February 2019 08:37:25


As i predicted a few days back when the caveats to a "cold or very cold" February is looking increasingly likely, I said that the backtrack would be slow and steady rather than just change in one fell swoop. That has proven to be pretty much spot on. I fully expect the chances of a cold "end" to February to go the same way. Their long ranger really had been ridiculous this winter, constantly pushing it back week after week and now finally the penny has dropped that it ain't going to happen. It's frankly embarrassing when we amateurs were scratching our heads looking at it every day and wondering what they were seeing. The answer is nothing. Perhaps they were looking at one of Brian's upside down charts??? 


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


True but they did give us one thing to hold on to...hope!! When that bubble finally burst the pill did become very bitter to swallow.


 


Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
sizzle
02 February 2019 08:41:44

the end of feb last year 28th we had a good dollop of snow IMBY ... might be worth reading terry scholeys month ahead forecast


https://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

Gavin D
02 February 2019 09:47:31

Next week


Less cold
Windy at times
Spells of rain
Hill snow in north


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/47098346

Gavin D
02 February 2019 10:04:41

BBC monthly outlook


Summary


Staying unsettled and cold at times


Saturday 2 February—Sunday 10 February


Becoming a little milder but staying unsettled


The current cold spell will continue this weekend. Saturday will be a chilly day and although many parts of the country will see some winter sunshine, there will be a few wintry showers too. The showers will be mainly in the north and east, although western Wales and South West England could see the odd shower too. Saturday night will be largely dry with long clear periods, so it will become cold with a widespread frost expected.


Sunday will start dry, clear and cold, but a front will move eastwards across the country during the day. This will bring outbreaks of rain to many areas, and perhaps some sleet or snow. Snow is most likely on high ground in the north of the country, chiefly over Scotland and northern England but cannot be completely ruled out in other areas.


The weather will remain changeable next week as weather systems move in from the Atlantic. These systems will bring showers and more widespread rain to many areas of the country, although there will be some drier and calmer spells of weather too. The start of next week is likely to be chilly but temperatures should pick up to around normal for the time of year, perhaps locally a little above normal. This means that snow is more likely to be confined to high ground in the north of the country. We could still have some chilly nights, although not as cold as we've seen in the last seven days.


Monday 11 February—Sunday 17 February


Becoming a little less mild


In our last update, we mentioned that there was a chance of some colder weather arriving around the middle of February. The reason for this was because we expected high pressure currently over the east and north-east of Europe to start to extend westwards towards the UK, with cooler easterly winds potentially reaching our shores. Whilst this scenario still looks possible, it now seems more likely a little later in the month, with high pressure and cold air slower to spread westwards.


However, we do think that after a relatively mild spell, it will become a little cooler towards the middle of the month. This is mainly due to an expected reduction in the broadly westerly winds coming in from the Atlantic. In this case, it would also become drier. It should be stressed that there is quite a lot of uncertainty for this period of the February, as there is low confidence in the timing of the transition from unsettled westerlies to more of a blocked, settled pattern. We could potentially see low pressure systems continuing to push in from the west, with the weather remaining unsettled, wet and windy but mild. There is only a small risk of anything substantially colder at this stage.


Monday 18 February—Sunday 3 March


Chance of colder weather setting in


It is likely that the final third of February will see a cold spell developing across the UK. This is most likely to be due to a 'blocked' pattern across northern Europe, this preventing our usual mild flow in from the Atlantic, with an increased chance of easterly or north-easterly winds developing. All areas of the country look colder than normal, and many areas will be drier and less windy than normal. There will be an enhanced risk of snow to lower levels and overnight frosts.


There is some uncertainty over the duration and magnitude of this cold spell, and it seems likely that it will be a relatively short spell of cold weather, with things perhaps returning to nearer normal for the start of March.


Whilst a spell of cold weather is the most likely story, there is an alternative scenario which suggests that we could see the Atlantic maintaining some influence on the weather. This would mean that it wouldn't be as widely cold - temperatures would be nearer normal - and there would be a reduced risk of snow. However, it would probably still be cooler than average for the time of year.


Next Update


We should be able to offer a little more detail regarding the intensity and duration of the cold spell expected later this month.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

David M Porter
02 February 2019 10:09:08


BBC monthly outlook


Summary


Staying unsettled and cold at times


Saturday 2 February—Sunday 10 February


Becoming a little milder but staying unsettled


The current cold spell will continue this weekend. Saturday will be a chilly day and although many parts of the country will see some winter sunshine, there will be a few wintry showers too. The showers will be mainly in the north and east, although western Wales and South West England could see the odd shower too. Saturday night will be largely dry with long clear periods, so it will become cold with a widespread frost expected.


Sunday will start dry, clear and cold, but a front will move eastwards across the country during the day. This will bring outbreaks of rain to many areas, and perhaps some sleet or snow. Snow is most likely on high ground in the north of the country, chiefly over Scotland and northern England but cannot be completely ruled out in other areas.


The weather will remain changeable next week as weather systems move in from the Atlantic. These systems will bring showers and more widespread rain to many areas of the country, although there will be some drier and calmer spells of weather too. The start of next week is likely to be chilly but temperatures should pick up to around normal for the time of year, perhaps locally a little above normal. This means that snow is more likely to be confined to high ground in the north of the country. We could still have some chilly nights, although not as cold as we've seen in the last seven days.


Monday 11 February—Sunday 17 February


Becoming a little less mild


In our last update, we mentioned that there was a chance of some colder weather arriving around the middle of February. The reason for this was because we expected high pressure currently over the east and north-east of Europe to start to extend westwards towards the UK, with cooler easterly winds potentially reaching our shores. Whilst this scenario still looks possible, it now seems more likely a little later in the month, with high pressure and cold air slower to spread westwards.


However, we do think that after a relatively mild spell, it will become a little cooler towards the middle of the month. This is mainly due to an expected reduction in the broadly westerly winds coming in from the Atlantic. In this case, it would also become drier. It should be stressed that there is quite a lot of uncertainty for this period of the February, as there is low confidence in the timing of the transition from unsettled westerlies to more of a blocked, settled pattern. We could potentially see low pressure systems continuing to push in from the west, with the weather remaining unsettled, wet and windy but mild. There is only a small risk of anything substantially colder at this stage.


Monday 18 February—Sunday 3 March


Chance of colder weather setting in


It is likely that the final third of February will see a cold spell developing across the UK. This is most likely to be due to a 'blocked' pattern across northern Europe, this preventing our usual mild flow in from the Atlantic, with an increased chance of easterly or north-easterly winds developing. All areas of the country look colder than normal, and many areas will be drier and less windy than normal. There will be an enhanced risk of snow to lower levels and overnight frosts.


There is some uncertainty over the duration and magnitude of this cold spell, and it seems likely that it will be a relatively short spell of cold weather, with things perhaps returning to nearer normal for the start of March.


Whilst a spell of cold weather is the most likely story, there is an alternative scenario which suggests that we could see the Atlantic maintaining some influence on the weather. This would mean that it wouldn't be as widely cold - temperatures would be nearer normal - and there would be a reduced risk of snow. However, it would probably still be cooler than average for the time of year.


Next Update


We should be able to offer a little more detail regarding the intensity and duration of the cold spell expected later this month.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Hmmm, interesting, and definitely somewhat at odds with the thoughts of quite a lot of people on the model thread this morning.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
nsrobins
02 February 2019 10:13:44
It’s the same story that’s been churned out for the last eight weeks. Of course those of us who’ve been around for years know that whatever the signals and computers say the weather will do what the hell it likes 😎
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
doctormog
02 February 2019 10:23:40

It’s the same story that’s been churned out for the last eight weeks. Of course those of us who’ve been around for years know that whatever the signals and computers say the weather will do what the hell it likes 😎

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Solar Cycles
02 February 2019 10:25:45

It’s the same story that’s been churned out for the last eight weeks. Of course those of us who’ve been around for years know that whatever the signals and computers say the weather will do what the hell it likes 😎

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

One thing of note is how little we should place our faith in these background signals, it’s quite evident this winter how we simply don’t understand them fully and/or misread them. Of course that doesn’t equate to throwing in the towel but rather accepting our limitations in forecasting beyond seven days.

moomin75
02 February 2019 11:38:24


 


Hmmm, interesting, and definitely somewhat at odds with the thoughts of quite a lot of people on the model thread this morning.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

And it will be wrong David. This is just following the watered down Met Office forecast. All cold references will be dropped in the next update if the models are to be believed.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
marting
02 February 2019 13:17:38
The difficulty is that the job they have is to report what the models are showing and to not make this up. They look at the models and tell us what they are showing, so when it changes they change the forecast - simple really. I don’t know how we can criticise for this, frustrating I know, but it is what it is.
Martin
Martin
Greasby, Wirral.

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