The Weather Outlook

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Matty H
14 June 2026 08:45:01

I think I wrote that about this weekend which AIFS was the best model imo. But far from perfect. 

As for the up coming spell. AIFS is being pretty consistent, for the SE heat builds this week peaking on Friday with 30c ish . Then HP takes over and heat builds again peaking day 12 ish with mid 30s possible. 

We'll see if it's accurate again , other models are similar so hopefully it will be.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

GFS and ECM were painting a pattern of pretty much what we’ve got. AIFS was having none of it. That’s what I was quoting

The overall theme for later next week is for temps to rise. How high remains to be seen

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

The Beast from the East
14 June 2026 08:55:03
longer range ECM only gives a glancing blow from the Euro heat dome, but the orientation of the block will keep changing with every run

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Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

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The Beast from the East
14 June 2026 08:56:54
Brexit day 10 year anniversary 23rd June looking like a day to look out for,  potential for 40c in the south

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

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Ally Pally Snowman
14 June 2026 08:58:59

GFS and ECM were painting a pattern of pretty much what we’ve got. AIFS was having none of it. That’s what I was quoting

The overall theme for later next week is for temps to rise. How high remains to be seen

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Tbf I think this week ECM in particular has handled it better than AIFS. AIFS was more unsettled but the LP is near our NW so it was close.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
14 June 2026 10:21:23
Looks like a lucky dip from next weekend onwards. That said, the whiskers are representing the 25th and 75th percentiles, and most runs are going cooler.

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Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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+1
Ally Pally Snowman
14 June 2026 20:11:54
ECM 12z turn to casually break the June record.

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=ecm&var=17&run=12&time=198&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
doctormog
14 June 2026 20:14:54
The 24°C temperature gradient would be quite notable too.
Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

+1
Ally Pally Snowman
14 June 2026 20:21:37
Brian Gaze
14 June 2026 20:53:59
More signs tonight that ECM is starting to dial up the heat. It's too early to be confident, but the chance that we're heading for yet another one of the all time classic heatwaves must be starting to rise.

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Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Brian Gaze
14 June 2026 20:56:38

GEM 12z also breaks it on the 21st and 22nd

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gem&var=5&run=12&time=198&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

It's 38C on ours. Possibly a 39C tucked away in the grid.

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Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Jiries
14 June 2026 21:51:59

GEM 12z also breaks it on the 21st and 22nd

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gem&var=5&run=12&time=198&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Good timing on the longest day too.  No rain this coming week should help to dry out properly to allow high temps.  I am off work too so good timing as well.  GFS ensemble had been showing hot outliers for days for that date lines seem to come off. 

Rob K
14 June 2026 22:00:14
We seem to be in a summer version of the winter model chases where a freeze is always 10 days out. Will this one actually enter the realms of reality?
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

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Devonian
14 June 2026 22:10:03

We seem to be in a summer version of the winter model chases where a freeze is always 10 days out. Will this one actually enter the realms of reality?

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I bl**dy well hope not. There is nothing good about 35C plus in June 2026 because July 2026 could easily be worse. Nothing.

Devonian
14 June 2026 22:13:25

More signs tonight that ECM is starting to dial up the heat. It's too early to be confident, but the chance that we're heading for yet another one of the all time classic heatwaves must be starting to rise.

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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

With it only being June that is a grim outlook - worse for France and Spain.

But one, perhaps, needs to be in ones 50/60s to know what we've lost and thus how fast the changes are. The future? No one will be delighting in 40C+ in the future and it's time we all grew up and got that and what it means we need to do.

+1

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