21st marked the first heatwave last year, incidentally.

It certainly does look massively cooler than they were talking about. 22-23C looks about the tops this weekend. The MO extended outlook still mentions the possibility of hot conditions later on though. I am still pretty confident we will see 30C this month.

It may be gone by the time you wake up, but my iPhone app for my location has 35C a week on Sunday. Never seen that sort of temperature being shown at such a lead time.

There was a 32C for me first thing this morning (I was up at 3.30am, dad taxi service) 

Now moderated to 28C.  GFS manages four days of 30C+, two and two with a cooler interlude in between.  The AIGFS is much less warm, and the ECM AIFS is  also not convinced, with 21C next Sunday, generally low 20s with the odd day reaching the mid 20s.

GFS Op 0z - agrees with FAX and  by Thu 18th goes on to show the LP responsible for the troughs taking up residence off NW Scotland with HP intensifying over Germany bringing up increasingly warm air from the south. BY Monday 22nd, with HP 1025mb established over Britain, conditions look hot for England but cooler in the far north. Thu 25th shows the HP further north, with warmth spreading to Scotland but LP from Spain trying to cross the Channel into England. On Sun 28th the HP withdraws to the Atlantic and any hot spell breaks down as winds switch to the NW.

ECM - similar to GFS though perhaps less hot as the feed of warmth is more from the SW rather than directly from the south. EDIT after 0900 download. However, on Thu 25th ECM differs from GFS by moving the HP cell to the N Sea and bringing heat from the Continent for all through to Sat 27th with LP, not HP, in the Atlantic.

AIFS - London, temps mostly 20-21C but 25C Fri/Sat 19th/20th and again Wed/Thu 24th/25th. A little rain next week from time to time, more definitely Fri 26th. Edinburgh, maxima 15-17C to Sun 21st then rising to 23C Wed 24th before dropping back. Some rain in the coming week esp Fri 19th then dry until more on Fri 26th

GEFS - Mean temp dropping back to norm after a warm weekend to come, then rising to 7 or 8C above norm in S England falling away to 2 or 3C above norm in Scotland, lasting to Mon 22nd with quite good ens agreement. The mean then drops back to norm along with most ens members but a significant number in the S including the op run continue hot. Chances of rain from Fri 19th in S England, again with a progression northwards to a higher chance and starting  Wed 17th in Scotland.

A week of hotter weather for S England, but only a week, and not really getting as far north as Scotland. However, it looks very hot over the Continent, and it wouldn't take much to much to shift that northwards to satisfy the heat hounds. EDIT (after ECM 0900 download) and indeed ECM does just that

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=16&model=gfs&var=17&run=6&time=228&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

It shows just how close we were to another extreme heatwave.  I wouldn't want to be in Central, Western or Southern France over the next few weeks!

Indeed, I think France is guaranteed to have a significant maybe historic heatwave but much more uncertainty for us. AIFS once again fairly underwhelming. 

Hopefully we will be lucky and the extreme heat stays in France.Nobody in their right mind looks forward to temps of 40c.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/t24393-Breakout-thread/page12 

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=17&run=6&time=273&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

FAX - current HP forming ridge to Greenland but being dismantled by LP 994mb off W Scotland Wed 17th with fronts and troughs, though the far south may just escape these.

GFS O p 12z - runs that LP further north, through the Faeroes, so more of Britain in the Euro heat area to Tue 23rd. HP then strengthens to the west with very warm E-lies for England, and by Sun 28th these easterlies are mixing heat from C Europe with cool from Scandinavia over England (looks unstable to me)

ECM - the fine weather is less assured in the coming week as the LP to the north has more influence. But by Fri 19th Lp to the west again brings up warmth from the south

AIFS - London, maxima 20C this week with a little rain, warmer Thu & Fri, from Mon 22nd a steady climb to 33C Sat 27th before a sudden drop. Edinburgh, similar pattern but 15C and 25C respectively, and distinctly more rain in the coming week.

GEFS - Warm or very warm in the south Wed 17th - 24th, little ens agreement by the end of this period with the op run holding out for hot against the majority view of norm. Dry at first, chances of rain around 24th but, unusually, more persistent in east. In the north, only marginally above norm except for a day or two around 23rd. Rain on many days

GEM 12z also very hot day 7 to 10

Those date lines 20-22 June kept showing members going high 15-20C range, I see 2 go for 20C for Nuneaton.  London quite a lot at the 20C line and one go for 21-22c and other one 23C on 27th June.  What need now no more unwanted rain and get them dry out properly.  

Surely the extreame heat in France cannot stay put so have go somewhere, so that go north.  

Eyebrow raising 12s tonight 

The chances of an extreme heatwave have certainly risen this evening. 

GFS Op 0z - for the rest of the coming week Britain lies between LP to the northwest and HP to the SE, a southwesterly flow of air which looks warm in the S but cooler in the N. For the w/b Sun 21st pressure rises generally, and the HP cell wanders around, either over Scotland or the N Sea, bringing generally warm air from the E or SE, even hot for the w/e by Sat 27th. The sequence finishes Tue 30th with LP moving up from France into the SW.

ECM - charts available to T+240 - generally agrees with GFS but with a higher chance of a hot S-ly flow as early as Tue 23rd.

AIFS - London, maxima rising to 29C by Fri 19th, dropping back then rising again to a peak of 32C Fri 26th. Traces of rain in the first week, then dry. Edinburgh, same pattern of maxima but only to 19C and 26C respectively. Moderate rain persistent in the coming week, then dry

GEFS - In the S, mean temp rising to 8C above norm Fri 19th (less marked in SW), slowly falling back to norm at end of run Tue 30th - not second peak of heat, indeed op and control both below norm in the last few days (but a very wide spread of ens members after 19th). Small chances of a little rain from 19th onwards, mostly in E.  In N England and Scotland, mean only a little above norm (say 2C, even less in NW)  and basically flatlining. Significant amounts of rain for w/b Wed 17th esp in NW, and significant chances remain after that though better chance of dry weather (Rain forecast does not agree with op run in week 2)

Good example of AIFS failure again

Summer? Yes please. Scorched and burnt? No thanks.

I think I wrote that about this weekend which AIFS was the best model imo. But far from perfect. 

As for the up coming spell. AIFS is being pretty consistent, for the SE heat builds this week peaking on Friday with 30c ish . Then HP takes over and heat builds again peaking day 12 ish with mid 30s possible. 

We'll see if it's accurate again , other models are similar so hopefully it will be.