Sadly the GFS Op output recently can best be described as schizophrenic.  AIFS not as good this morning annoyingly but even AIFS has struggled with this pattern change after the unsettled spell.

GEM and ECM both look good this morning aswell.  

But the envelope of scenarios is still anything from record breaking heat to meh .

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=aifs&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Ugh, frankly, but as we know the Euro monsoon usually only lasts 10 days to a fortnight and it looks like no exception this time.

Looking at the jet it remains far south of normal over the Atlantic and some models - like the ECM and MOGREPS - show a "heat pump" like kink as we get to the 10 day mark, which is where that pluminess comes from. Needless to say I'm hoping it's wrong but sod's law says it'll be spot on and we'll be in for another very uncomfortable spell.

GFS Op 0z - the above is followed by a rapid rebound with pressure rising to 1030mb Wales Sat13th (the BBC TV forecast has full sunshine and 24C then).  The HP cell weaken and moves eastwards but by Thu 18th has brought in persistent warmth from the south while LP stays in the Atlantic. From Sun21st HP is the dominant feature for Britain but small areas of (?thundery) LP move up from France.

ECM - Agrees with GFS to 18th but then the HP moves southwards to lie across N France with westerlies returning for the following weekend, The Atlantic LP then asserts itself and w/b Mon 22nd is 990mb off NW Scotland, unsettled for the NW, fine in the SE.

AIFS - London, maxima 16C with occasional rain to Fri 12th, then drier and warmer reaching 24C by Tue 16th; then back to 20C and mostly dry. Edinburgh, maxima around 15C (cooler Wed 10th, warrmer Mon 15th). Some rain this week, mostly dry next week, heavy burst on Sat 20th.

GEFS - Cool at first (mean & ens 5C below norm Wed 10th) then from Sat 13th to Tue 23rd mean is 3 or 4 C above norm but in the middle of a wide spread of ens members, op up to 10C above this and control consistently 5C below (the spread is more limited in Scotland). Rain this week, not much in the S after Fri 12th, but more persistent in N although in small amounts

GFS op run is a midsummer special!

my app for Friday and Saturday shows 22/ 24 mox. With the jet stream so far south I still have my doubts if there will be any improvement in the short to medium term...

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/t24393-Breakout-thread 

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=aifs&var=2&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=1 

It’s one model. Same rule applies as any other. There’s no “guru” model. They all have their day. AIFS is not different 

I always enjoy reading DEW’s daily summaries on here and when he is quoting that model’s output for London and Edinburgh, I always pay attention to what that is saying for here in Edinburgh in particular.

From those observations, I’ve noticed that the AIFS tends to underestimate our temperatures quite often and because of that, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s now showing a more unsettled outlook than what we actually end up with.

GFS Op - that pressure rise continues and covers Britain 1025mb Sat 13th. The HP centre drifts NE-wards, declining, and then re-invents itself 1025mb Thu 18th west of Ireland, with warmer weather and a hint of troughs moving up from the south in between. This second HP drifts around but by Tue 23rd has moved north to Iceland with an Atlantic trough moving into S England.

ECM - similar to GFS but with a day or two of distinct westerlies Tue 16th before the return of HP from the west on the 18th.

AIFS - London, rain and maxima 15C-ish to Fri 12th, then dry and temp rising in stages to 28C Mon 22nd (but a little rain Wed 17th). Edinburgh, maxima 15C lasting to Fri 19th (a little  below Wed 10th, a little above around Mon 15th) with small amounts of rain on most days, followed a steep rise of maximum to 24C Mon 22nd and dry.

GEFS - in the south, cool (4 C below norm) and rain to Fri 12th, then a rapid rise to 6C above norm Sun 14th. Good ens agreement to this point, dropping back to 2 or 3C above norm through to Wed 24th but a wide spread of ens members developing, and a little rain in some runs from Wed 17th esp in west. In the north, similar pattern but maxima only getting to 3 C above norm, and rain very likely from 17th, heavy in the NW.

The wet spell continues then perhaps

I just hope it's something like the GFS 12z solution, which brings/ridges the HLB far enough south to influence much of the UK. A couple hundred miles further south would be even nicer but, as it is, the GFS has a solution that position the Jet right through the middle of the UK, spinning a succession of fronts through the country.

GFS Op 0z - after a break on Wed 17th while LP 995mb brushes NW Scotland, HP resumes near SE England  with warm southerlies (perhaps fresher and breezier in the NW) until Wed 24th when a small temporary disturbance 1000mb moves SE-wards from the Hebrides.  Jet stream intermittently  streaky and most prominent on the two Wednesdays mentioned.

ECM - somewhat like GFS & FAX but slower to develop: the HP on Sat 13th is still approaching from the west with cooler NW-lies; then the break on Wed 17th is a day later and persists until Fri 19th. EDIT added 0905 - but then follows that up with a large area of high pressure  covering Britain (no interruption from the NW as in GFS) through to Tue 23rd with increasingly warm SE-lies.

AIFS - London, maxima 15C and showery to Fri 12th then warmer and dry to 24C Tue 16th, followed by a re-set, 17C and rain to Fri 19th after which dry and progressively warmer to 21C Tue 23rd. Edinburgh, 14C and wet to Fri 12th, dry and slightly warmer (17C) to Tue 16th, then rain and back to 14C much as for London, but then staying cooler with only an occasional warm day.

GEFS - In the S, mean temp cool (4C below norm)l and rainy to Fri 12th, then warming to 4 or 5C above norm Tue 16th, slowly declining to norm by Thu 25th and dry, some chance of rain at the end of this period esp away from S Coast - but quite a wide spread of ens members from 16th onwards. In the N, similar temp pattern though not so marked, high chance of rain from Fri 19th onward and never really dry in the NW anyway.

This weekend and the start of next week fine and (esp for the SE) warm, and the same for next weekend but unsettled at other times.

ECM 0z not a million miles away from that, but has the earlier low further north.

All round 'yuck'

Maybe it's easier to see the glass half full rather than half empty if you live in the south - but I see GFS promising a decent weekend for all, a breakdown midweek (tough especially on the Scots I'm afraid) and then back to fine weather for the following weekend.

I think that’s accurate. Looks alright for here

anyone else having issues with WX Charts on mobile? This forum seems to be a mare at times too for quite some while. Having to refresh and refresh as it says offline. Also seems to like to verify you’re a person and not a bot every ten mins