Yep, and where the Summe weather is concerned I’m unashamedly and unapologetically selfish. The rest of you can have your boring cold and snow in winter as much as you want 

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=17&run=0&time=255&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=aifs&var=2&run=0&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

I think we can discount the GFS record breaker already. 

You're blowing hot and cold just like the pattern-matching models! FWIW average 850s in mid-June range from 2 or 3 in northern Scotland to 6 or 7 in the south of England, so the "bitter northerly" you show varies from a couple of degrees below average in the north to average in the SE - not bitter at all, of course! I get that you're disappointed though as you're a heat fan.

Meanwhile closer to the here and now there will be a marked change in feel as a warm front crosses most of the UK tomorrow - dewpoints will go from mid single figures today, which feels pleasantly fresh, to mid teens tomorrow. It might not be hot and sunny, but it'll feel positively tropical. We're then back to the warm and dry weather for several days down here at least... time to get some ice-cream in, I think!

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&time=96&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

GFS Op 0z - that HP soon weakens and by Wed 17th the westerlies are back with large area of LP Orkney 995mb. HP revives from the south 1020mb Holland by Sat 20th but again doesn't last, with westerlies from LP 1000mb St Kilda by Wed 24th.Pressure remains quite high near the south, so settled there, unsettled in the far north.

ECM - similar to GFS though pressure remains fairly high in the far S even while LPs are passing/over Scotland.

Summary - LP - HP -  LP - HP - mixed,  with the HP at weekends.

AIFS - London, cool  (15C) with some rain to Fri 12th, then near 20C to Wed 24th (slightly warmer this weekend, slightly cooler Wed 17th), rain at intervals (Tue 16th, Sat 20th, Wed 24th). Edinburgh, around 15C throughout (a warm day or two near Tue 23rd), rain Thu 11th, Tue 16th (heavy), Wed 24th.

GEFS - In the S, after cool with rain for the next two days, mean temp rises to 3 or 4C above norm for ten days (to Mon 22nd) before dropping back to norm Fri 26th. Small chance of rain later on but otherwise mainly dry. A lot of ens variation from Sat 19th with several hot outliers. In the N, the mean temp is only just above norm for the period to Mon 22nd, hot outliers less in evidence and rain from Sat 19th fairly certain, heavy in W.

Even on the GEFS chart you can see there is a lot of uncertainty on the level of warmth over this weekend. Spread starts at 48 hours and is impacted by the positioning of the high.  My weather app has temperature forecasts nudging down steadily for the weekend. 

AIFS is not bad either. Although looks like the high scoots off towards Scandinavia before it can draw up any proper warmth.

GFS Op 0z - agrees with FAX in prolonging the life of the ridge but on Sat 20th the Atlantic LP, which has been been ringing up warmth from the south. moves in across Scotland 995mb. Then the next LP tracks across N England 1005mb Mon 20th, all with a mild/warm SW-ly feed. By Sat 27th HP re-asserts itself from the SW.

ECM - unlike the above, does not continue with ridge of HP and by Wed17th LP 995mb is off W Scotland with SW-lies for all (could be quite warm in the SE). This is followed by a slow rise of pressure from the west to 1025mb Scotland Sun 21st with a feed of hot-looking continental air for England

AIFS - London, a rise of maxima from 20C tomorrow to 25C Mon 22nd before falling back to high teens. Rain frequent , the only dry slot is this weekend. Edinburgh, maxima mostly around 15C but warmer to 17C on some days w/b Tue 16th; not as much rain as London but equally persistent, again the only dry slot is (later) this weekend.

GEFS - In the S, after today (rain and cool) there are ten days to Mon 22nd with mean temp  3 or 4 C above norm before falling back. Quite good ens support but one or two crazy outliers at the end (control 13C above norm from Mon 22nd onwards). Dry after today but chances gradually pick up again from Fri 19th. In the N, mean temp never far from norm, above and below by turns, and hot outliers less in evidence. The only convincingly dry spell is around this Sun, 14th, otherwise rain always appears in a number of runs, though not all.

Any heatwave looks as if it would be confined to the south, and even there, no consistent signal for anything dramatic.

Long term the GEFS have mostly trended cooler for the end of the month, although the control and especially P5 are fun!

38c, yes please.

With that in mind, I would imagine that whoever came up with the idea of creating a separate thread for that is probably now feeling a bit silly for having actually done so.🤣️😂️

Bit Scillydave in fact. 😀

I did think it was a bit early but tbf the models have had a mare.

And sure enough GFS pulls a toasty rabbit out of the hat with a full week of 80F+ weather (27C, a decent benchmark for "heat") in the south, peaking at 32C.

We badly need those temps and to make June hotter than May last month and end the outdated hottest record in June, it overdue with the global warming it highly expecting to happen.  Sadly horrible nasty AIFS will take this away from us for sure as they did took away this coming warm spell.  Can't wait to see much welcome drier weather from the 6z ensembles and go back to average to above.  

I find this view on Meteociel a good one for showing at a glance the chances of warmth: https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=6&ext=1&mode=7&sort=1 

I'll give it a couple of days John but yes I may well be left a bit red in the face just without the heat to cause it! 🤣

Of interest that the 6z ENS mean 850 is above 10°C for London from 17th to 23rd, peaking around 13°C on 21st and not just because of extreme outliers like P2. I remember a stretch up in the graph sometime in May, when GEM (which somehow no longer seems to appear on my main model menu) was accused of going loopy, then 35 did happen in May. Then, increasing members of GFS ENS clustered well above the black line.