GFS has been so bad to be almost completely useless.  

ECM also v poor. It has loads of HLB this morning which is v unlikely, an issue its had for years.

GFS Op 0z -Improving slowly from later in the week. The LP above gets slowly pushed aside as pressure rises from the SW, 1030mb SW Ireland Sun 14th. This hovers west of Ireland for the following week with light northerlies for Britain, looking cool but dry.

ECM - like GFS but keeps LP over Shetland a day or two longer before a more rapid rise in pressure; by Sun 14th matching GFS again.

AIFS -  not loading from Wetterzentrale for this week - London, rain still there early Sat 13th then dry; maxima 20C to Thu 18th with a warmer day Sun 14th before a general rise after Thu 18th to 27C. Edinburgh, similar pattern but maxima closer to 15C and not so much of a rise at the end.

GEFS - from norm now, mean temp drops to about 5C below norm Tue 9th, then a steady rise to 3 or 4 C above norm by Sun 21st with quite good ens support. Definite rain at intervals to Sat 13th, mostly but not entirely dry after that in the S but in the north returning around Tue 19th and sometimes heavy there.

I wont be missed if they are all scrapped, they are all useless, rubbish and far worse than before, i used to view charts in the 00's but no more now, i just see the ensembles but also going down the drain as i see now lot of green lines scribbing all over it.  I just rely from the  window as I used to do in the 1980's and 90's every day to see how it goes outside, the apps also are useless too showing full on overcast skies, rain and such cold tempetatures when in reality was decent sunny spells, drier and average temperatures.  I still expecting to see settled weather very soon next week as orginally predicted before.

Something more settled seems to be way off right now or stuck in fi.

Still, going abroad soon, so I shall feel some heat and no doubt some storms too, hopefully.😎🌩️

Looking at the AIFS ensembles looks like a 60/40 chance in favour of some heat returning in about a weeks time. For the southern third of the UK at least.  

What a terrible Epsom Derby Day! 

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=aifs&var=2&run=6&time=204&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

Climatologically the current unsettled stuff is fairly normal for early June and given recent years and the depressingly turbo charged warming trend, I'd be surprised if we don't see at least a few couple of bursts of +30c heat before month end. 

Genuinely don't bother with GFS anymore.  So poor.

Much prefer the GFS, which is much more superb... 19C here at 168, a northerly breeze, full sunshine and a 6C dewpoint. That would feel very pleasant, I would assert, and even heat lovers would enjoy the warmth of the sun out of the wind! 😁

Well luckily for me the GFS Op is about as useful as a chocolate teapot. 

AIFS 12z also great for summer fans settling things down as early as 120h for the South. Hot by next weekend. 

One of the GFS runs from yesterday (18z I think) had a lovely high to the north of Scotland, bringing in warm, blue sky conditions coupled with low dew points. Something that you would reasonable expect at this time of year. Hopefully, it picked up on something stirring in the atmosphere. 

The problem with GFS is that it's so poor atm, the chances of it picking up something before other models is virtually zero.

Much prefer a high to our north (with easterly flow) than to our south 

8 days of > 30C as well. 

Sadly the GFS Op output recently can best be described as schizophrenic.  AIFS not as good this morning annoyingly but even AIFS has struggled with this pattern change after the unsettled spell.

GEM and ECM both look good this morning aswell.  

But the envelope of scenarios is still anything from record breaking heat to meh .

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=aifs&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Ugh, frankly, but as we know the Euro monsoon usually only lasts 10 days to a fortnight and it looks like no exception this time.

Looking at the jet it remains far south of normal over the Atlantic and some models - like the ECM and MOGREPS - show a "heat pump" like kink as we get to the 10 day mark, which is where that pluminess comes from. Needless to say I'm hoping it's wrong but sod's law says it'll be spot on and we'll be in for another very uncomfortable spell.