Although with thundery showers around🌩️

Better to work shift pattern so you get more days off during the week to catch those hot spells easier.  I seen the ensembles and there some few support with the main op up to 22c here.  It been a trend to show high temps for a while and not in FI.

BBC Weather here has basically unbroken sun from July 3rd to 12th, with highs between 26 and 32 and lows of 13 to 18. Sounds wonderful. Wish I had invested in solar panels though, I have really been missing out these last couple of years!

Why are you going to China? 

For a bit of travelling and something different.

Edit: actually on the third 39C day it looks like there is a 40C isotherm. Oh well... :)

So just the one 40C+ day, six 35C+ and twelve 30C+ days on that run.

In 2022 the GFS ensembles had something like a 50% chance of 41C being achieved 1-2 days before the actual event, in the end we were about a degree lower than that; some of the more extreme forecasts went far above 42C with the most extreme one showing 46C. 

We currently have forecasts showing 40C again, thankfully I think unless we get a big majority of ensembles showing this at short range its probably quite unlikely. 

The recording network is so sparse now that I'm actually surprised how close the recorded max often is to the modelled max. The small areas of extremes are often over the top, as you say. (although I am pretty sure there were some reliable 38s across Norfolk on Friday, looking at the private stations on WOW).

Oddly poetic, Q. 

I notice one day in about a week's time, a mid 30s temperature with a 6C dewpoint. Keep hydrated then it might be possible to cool off.

One thing we won’t go into this next heatwave is damp ground as well. In effect we are back in Heatwave territory from Friday on this run alone, meaning in reality the ‘cool down’ was only for 4 days 

It’s an awful forecast for France, in the hot sense of the word. We’ll be at our Burgundy house from later in the month but relatives will be there next week, and it looks thoroughly unpleasant for them. 38+ most days, a few 40s. That’s just not holiday weather.

And 17 on the 12Z. P25 and P2 the furnace specials with six days 36C+ in a row (including two 40s on P25).

And sure enough the 18Z GFS throws out a much cooler run! It’s all relative though and would still be a great summer run in most years…

Edit: and still gets to 38C eventually. As I said it’s all relative 🙂

GFS Op 0z - picks up the HP from Fax and keeps it near SW England ca 1025mb to Thu 8th with Atlantic air in its circulation for Britain (looks fine and warm but not dramatically hot). From then to Mon 13th Britain lies in a region of slack pressure, LP in France nibbling at the S Coast (on the fringe of continental heat) while the north of Scotland has fresh westerlies from LP near Iceland. From Mon 13th the LP transfers to Scandinavia and a northerly drift brings cooler weather for all, though the Azores High continues to lurk to the SW.

ECM to T+240 - agrees with GFS

AIFS - London, steady rise in maxima from 23C now to 32C Thu 9th before dropping back to 25C, dry to Tue 14th. Edinburgh, maxima in upper teens for the next fortnight, a short burst of warmth (21C) Wed 8th, trending cooler towards the end. Appreciable rain in the coming two days, small amounts of 'nuisance' rain after that.

GEFS - mean temp quite well supported by ens members showing a rather warm spell (6C above norm in the south, 4C above in north) Thu 8th - Sun 12th, but close to norm either side of this. Dry in the south, grading to light rain from time to time in the north. 

Having said that, P14 is one for the scrapbook! 

Rob take a look at P14 Saturday 11th around Norfolk!

Yes I was just editing my post with that one. Five consecutive 40C days from the 7th... 40, 40, 42, 44, 44.