It’s an awful forecast for France, in the hot sense of the word. We’ll be at our Burgundy house from later in the month but relatives will be there next week, and it looks thoroughly unpleasant for them. 38+ most days, a few 40s. That’s just not holiday weather.

And 17 on the 12Z. P25 and P2 the furnace specials with six days 36C+ in a row (including two 40s on P25).

And sure enough the 18Z GFS throws out a much cooler run! It’s all relative though and would still be a great summer run in most years…

Edit: and still gets to 38C eventually. As I said it’s all relative 🙂

GFS Op 0z - picks up the HP from Fax and keeps it near SW England ca 1025mb to Thu 8th with Atlantic air in its circulation for Britain (looks fine and warm but not dramatically hot). From then to Mon 13th Britain lies in a region of slack pressure, LP in France nibbling at the S Coast (on the fringe of continental heat) while the north of Scotland has fresh westerlies from LP near Iceland. From Mon 13th the LP transfers to Scandinavia and a northerly drift brings cooler weather for all, though the Azores High continues to lurk to the SW.

ECM to T+240 - agrees with GFS

AIFS - London, steady rise in maxima from 23C now to 32C Thu 9th before dropping back to 25C, dry to Tue 14th. Edinburgh, maxima in upper teens for the next fortnight, a short burst of warmth (21C) Wed 8th, trending cooler towards the end. Appreciable rain in the coming two days, small amounts of 'nuisance' rain after that.

GEFS - mean temp quite well supported by ens members showing a rather warm spell (6C above norm in the south, 4C above in north) Thu 8th - Sun 12th, but close to norm either side of this. Dry in the south, grading to light rain from time to time in the north. 

Having said that, P14 is one for the scrapbook! 

Rob take a look at P14 Saturday 11th around Norfolk!

Yes I was just editing my post with that one. Five consecutive 40C days from the 7th... 40, 40, 42, 44, 44.

How is it expected to affect us?

The growing consensus of heatwave 3 seems to be a standard affair with the block never establishing itself over europe and retreating west to allow a northerly flow later.  

Since the models had been showing often those low 40's becoming more frequent showing it likely sooner than later to happen at some point so not to ignore.  Very dry run on the ensembles and with uppers going to 15C as more members clustering together plus with very dry ground might get to low 30's here.  Last rain that give a dusting dampness last week Monday storm that missed here.

I've posted a static chart and animation of it here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/signal#rep609 

One testament to how hot it is is that in that ensemble we are actually seeing some diurnal variation in the T850s, with it dropping by 5C at night compared to the day. When the airmass temperature becomes extreme you start to get mixing and this dirunal variation starts to appear; its not usually seen in the UK (other than sometimes in Spring when you get a very cold airmass).

Its also why despite global warming causing ever more extreme temps in higher latitude the all time global temp record is probably not going to fall anytime soon. When you get much above 50C the heat spreads out to an increasingly deep column of air and stops further surface heating. 

Another reason is that the global all-time max temperature record is almost certainly an incorrect reading. But I digress...

 Yes I agree, it should be removed in favour of the 2013 death valley record of 54.0C, similar temperatures were also recorded in Kuwait which is also a realistic place for them to happen. The Lut desert in Iran doesn't have any weather stations but holds the record for the highest surface temperature, so this is also a possible candidate if we can get stations there. 

The other small point is that these are 'non heat burst' related records. Heat bursts can cause temperatures to easily exceed 60C in the most extreme examples. Its only a matter of time before a heatburst happens in the locality of a station and then we will have to work out what to do.