The Weather Outlook

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Brian Gaze
30 June 2026 07:39:21
I wonder whether we'll start to see the developing El Niño shuffling the pack a little from now on.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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The Beast from the East
30 June 2026 08:37:11

I wonder whether we'll start to see the developing El Niño shuffling the pack a little from now on.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

How is it expected to affect us?

The growing consensus of heatwave 3 seems to be a standard affair with the block never establishing itself over europe and retreating west to allow a northerly flow later.  


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

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Heavy Weather 2013
30 June 2026 08:41:38
Brian, apparently one ensemble member from the GFS run has 44C. Has anyone found it, would be good to get a GIF of that as it has a run of FOUR +40C days.
Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Jiries
30 June 2026 08:41:44

0Z update: 13 runs plus the op hitting 20C at 850mb. Looks to me as though there is a slight wobble away from a serious heatwave this morning - still very warm but the northward extent of the heat is getting cut off.

Having said that, P14 is one for the scrapbook! 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Since the models had been showing often those low 40's becoming more frequent showing it likely sooner than later to happen at some point so not to ignore.  Very dry run on the ensembles and with uppers going to 15C as more members clustering together plus with very dry ground might get to low 30's here.  Last rain that give a dusting dampness last week Monday storm that missed here.

Rob K
30 June 2026 08:42:39
AIFS op run this morning ends the warmth fairly rapidly, around the 11th - but it's one of the cooler members later on. The control run keeps it hot for about 10 days. Overall picture looks very warm and dry for the south.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Brian Gaze
30 June 2026 08:51:30

Brian, apparently one ensemble member from the GFS run has 44C. Has anyone found it, would be good to get a GIF of that as it has a run of FOUR +40C days.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

I've posted a static chart and animation of it here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/signal#rep609 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Rob K
30 June 2026 10:58:31
GFS 6Z also pushing the heat away fairly rapidly but still manages 6 30C days with a couple of 39s in the mix.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Quantum
30 June 2026 11:07:09
That P14 seems to have a T850 of around 27C which is the sort of thing we would need to get those surface temps.

One testament to how hot it is is that in that ensemble we are actually seeing some diurnal variation in the T850s, with it dropping by 5C at night compared to the day. When the airmass temperature becomes extreme you start to get mixing and this dirunal variation starts to appear; its not usually seen in the UK (other than sometimes in Spring when you get a very cold airmass).

Its also why despite global warming causing ever more extreme temps in higher latitude the all time global temp record is probably not going to fall anytime soon. When you get much above 50C the heat spreads out to an increasingly deep column of air and stops further surface heating. 


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Rob K
30 June 2026 11:18:55

Its also why despite global warming causing ever more extreme temps in higher latitude the all time global temp record is probably not going to fall anytime soon. When you get much above 50C the heat spreads out to an increasingly deep column of air and stops further surface heating. 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Another reason is that the global all-time max temperature record is almost certainly an incorrect reading. But I digress...


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Quantum
30 June 2026 11:34:37

Another reason is that the global all-time max temperature record is almost certainly an incorrect reading. But I digress...

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

 Yes I agree, it should be removed in favour of the 2013 death valley record of 54.0C, similar temperatures were also recorded in Kuwait which is also a realistic place for them to happen. The Lut desert in Iran doesn't have any weather stations but holds the record for the highest surface temperature, so this is also a possible candidate if we can get stations there. 

The other small point is that these are 'non heat burst' related records. Heat bursts can cause temperatures to easily exceed 60C in the most extreme examples. Its only a matter of time before a heatburst happens in the locality of a station and then we will have to work out what to do. 


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Brian Gaze
30 June 2026 11:48:35
I'll start a new thread in a minute.
Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

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