FAX - HP ridging to Greenland at first, rather weak with (showery?) troughs in the NE and later in the S, before LP moves closer from the Atlantic 993mb S of Iceland Wed 17th, with attendant fronts crossing Scotland, Wales and N England while S England just about holds on to High pressure.
GFS Op 0z - for the rest of the coming week Britain lies between LP to the northwest and HP to the SE, a southwesterly flow of air which looks warm in the S but cooler in the N. For the w/b Sun 21st pressure rises generally, and the HP cell wanders around, either over Scotland or the N Sea, bringing generally warm air from the E or SE, even hot for the w/e by Sat 27th. The sequence finishes Tue 30th with LP moving up from France into the SW.
ECM - charts available to T+240 - generally agrees with GFS but with a higher chance of a hot S-ly flow as early as Tue 23rd.
AIFS - London, maxima rising to 29C by Fri 19th, dropping back then rising again to a peak of 32C Fri 26th. Traces of rain in the first week, then dry. Edinburgh, same pattern of maxima but only to 19C and 26C respectively. Moderate rain persistent in the coming week, then dry
GEFS - In the S, mean temp rising to 8C above norm Fri 19th (less marked in SW), slowly falling back to norm at end of run Tue 30th - not second peak of heat, indeed op and control both below norm in the last few days (but a very wide spread of ens members after 19th). Small chances of a little rain from 19th onwards, mostly in E. In N England and Scotland, mean only a little above norm (say 2C, even less in NW) and basically flatlining. Significant amounts of rain for w/b Wed 17th esp in NW, and significant chances remain after that though better chance of dry weather (Rain forecast does not agree with op run in week 2)
It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard
Chichester 12m asl