The Weather Outlook

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Darren S
28 January 2019 13:24:45

 

 

Indeed. Not sure if you've seen, but the snow row league and historic graphs are now here:

 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/snowrow.aspx?location=Brighton#Brighton

 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Are the figures for Reading definitely correct? It's currently got a score even lower than Brighton, and way lower than London.

Darren

Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)

South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:

2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm

nsrobins
28 January 2019 13:28:20
I’m a little more enthusiastic about bringing the UKM outlook home into Feb after a couple of GEFS runs showing a mean cooling trend in the suite after a shift milder over the weekend.

More hints today of a Scandy bias but it’s still only 25% as of the 06Z run.

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Quantum
28 January 2019 13:50:17

Do people think its worth opening another thread to focus on the PL? Not sure there is enough interest for it, but if there is it would free up the other threads to talk more about the snow situation.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Iceman
28 January 2019 13:59:27

Do people think its worth opening another thread to focus on the PL? Not sure there is enough interest for it, but if there is it would free up the other threads to talk more about the snow situation.

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

yes, I would be interested 

East Kilbride 480 ft
Saint Snow
28 January 2019 14:03:49

Do people think its worth opening another thread to focus on the PL? Not sure there is enough interest for it, but if there is it would free up the other threads to talk more about the snow situation.

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

 

I'm waiting for one of your snow probability maps

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

polarwind
28 January 2019 14:18:28

Do people think its worth opening another thread to focus on the PL? Not sure there is enough interest for it, but if there is it would free up the other threads to talk more about the snow situation.

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Yes, I would be interested too!

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)

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"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell

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Dave,Derby

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
28 January 2019 14:26:05

 

 

I'm waiting for one of your snow probability maps

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

 Me too!

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

Quantum
28 January 2019 14:33:25

 Me too!

Originally Posted by: Caz 

I'll do one of those tonight

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Windy Willow
28 January 2019 15:08:10

 

I'll do one of those tonight

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

When I saw corruption, I was forced to find truth on my own. I couldn't swallow the hypocrisy.

Barry White

It’s the end of the world as we know it (and I feel fine) - R.E.M.

Brian Gaze
28 January 2019 15:23:56

Thanks Brian - I was trying to find that page from the Charts page, but there doesn't appear to be a link. 

I don't suppose you store old ensemble plots by location do you?

Originally Posted by: kmoorman 

 

I'd generally advise using the new Inventory page to select models.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/model-inventory.aspx

The old chart viewer isn't being developed further although I may make minor changes to it. The problem is that as more and more data sets are added to the site it becomes increasingly complicated to have them all on a single page.

The old ensemble plots aren't saved but the snow row data is.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Brian Gaze
28 January 2019 15:25:41

 

Are the figures for Reading definitely correct? It's currently got a score even lower than Brighton, and way lower than London.

Originally Posted by: Darren S 

Just taken a look. It is correct in the sense that:

1) The GEFS data downloaded fully 
2) The grid point is set correctly for the Reading area
3) The daily snow row values are summed correctly

 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

idj20
28 January 2019 15:27:09

With a round or two of marginal slop over the new few days and then settling into what looks like a Bartlett high-type scenario thereafter, I've now thrown the towel in with regards to hoping for any sustained cold snowy spells for the rest of the winter.

Wintry weather in March or April is about as welcome as a fart in a lift, as that's when I start properly yearning for the first bit of actual spring-like warmth.

What saved this winter from being "memorably terrible" is how I did well in terms of cool sunny dry weather, such as today, and there has been little in the way of real storminess.

Home location: Folkestone Harbour.
Arcus
28 January 2019 15:30:02
ICON 12z's Having A Moment - a 920mb low in the Atlantic it looks like, hard to tell as all the text and isobars are merging as one.
Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

JACKO4EVER
28 January 2019 15:41:28

 

or C). No body knows for certain but a hefty moderation to the long term forecast is due soon.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

absolutely, something has to give soon, and with dare I say the odd Bartlet/ zonal scenario in the mix it’s definitely a crazy spread. 

Gandalf The White
28 January 2019 15:50:51

ICON 12z's Having A Moment - a 920mb low in the Atlantic it looks like, hard to tell as all the text and isobars are merging as one.

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

Not to mention a 1,060mb high pressure over northern Russia....

The LP isn't going anywhere - certainly not coming east

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



ballamar
28 January 2019 15:59:11

absolutely, something has to give soon, and with dare I say the odd Bartlet/ zonal scenario in the mix it’s definitely a crazy spread. 

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 

 

how on earth can you see a Bartlett high - charts don’t go far enough to confirm something which can only really be confirmed after a period of time!!

Gandalf The White
28 January 2019 16:08:25

 

 

how on earth can you see a Bartlett high - charts don’t go far enough to confirm something which can only really be confirmed after a period of time!!

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

Not to mention that a Bartlett high doesn't describe a high pressure cell; it describes a synoptic pattern where high pressure cells move east across the Atlantic into mainland Europe with the jetstream running west-east around the latitude of Iceland.

I've not seen that modelled in any of the output this entire winter.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



moomin75
28 January 2019 16:58:50

 

 

You're doing what I use to do and take one run of one model as Gospel!

Mind you the GFS 0p run is very bullish about it turning milder!! But doesn't mean it will definitely verify? Only a day or so ago it was pulling in a ranging easterly - you may remember my posts previously and the models at FI kept flip flopping. I was actually watching Gav's weather videos and he actually said having a warm southerly or HP to the south could be a sign that things may turn colder a week after that - because sometimes the HP to our south will push northwards and before it does that it will drag up milder or warm air but the benefits of that is that we will eventually see the HLB over Greenland or Iceland - which is what we have all been waiting for ha!

But we really need to get on with this and soon because it's Feb in a few days time. I really don't want snow in March. 

Thank goodness for this potential snow on Tuesday evening for the south!!

 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Indeed because again the GFS 12z is looking like milder for early-mid February. It's not a case of me looking at one operational but trends. There is nothing in the models that suggests anything particularly Easterly or severe in February. Quite the opposite in fact. I am only commenting on the models as they are showing, I am absolutely NOT trying to wind anybody up. 

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Arbroath 1320
28 January 2019 16:58:59
Well there will be plenty of gnashing of teeth and WIO threads after the GFS 12z op no doubt.

It's only 1 run. Lets see where it sits in the GEFS first.

Kenmore, Highland Perthshire, GGTTH
moomin75
28 January 2019 17:03:12

Well there will be plenty of gnashing of teeth and WIO threads after the GFS 12z op no doubt.

It's only 1 run. Lets see where it sits in the GEFS first.

Originally Posted by: Arbroath 1320 

It's a trend that is growing as I said yesterday. I really don't want to annoy people but if I'm commenting on the models, the writing is on the wall ***IF*** these verify. But the trend is becoming clearer. I'm not saying it will happen, but it's not looking like the Met Office 15-30 dayer which is painting a very wintry February with a higher than average chance of East or Northeast winds. I just do not see what they are seeing.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

backtobasics
28 January 2019 17:08:12

 

It's a trend that is growing as I said yesterday. I really don't want to annoy people but if I'm commenting on the models, the writing is on the wall ***IF*** these verify. But the trend is becoming clearer. I'm not saying it will happen, but it's not looking like the Met Office 15-30 dayer which is painting a very wintry February with a higher than average chance of East or Northeast winds. I just do not see what they are seeing.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

You hit the nail on the head, none of us do because we don’t work for the met office and have access to all the data.

 

nsrobins
28 January 2019 17:09:54

Well there will be plenty of gnashing of teeth and WIO threads after the GFS 12z op no doubt.

It's only 1 run. Lets see where it sits in the GEFS first.

Originally Posted by: Arbroath 1320 

A shame as I thought we might be seeing signs of the height rises that the UKM forecast would need to our North for their persistent script to deliver. You are right though - the GEFS need to be out before ticking another round of output off the bucket list.

 

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

moomin75
28 January 2019 17:14:33

 

You hit the nail on the head, none of us do because we don’t work for the met office and have access to all the data.

 

Originally Posted by: backtobasics 

Well one way or another we are going to see a backtrack. Either fron the Met Office or from the models. I know which one I HOPE to see backtrack.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

doctormog
28 January 2019 17:17:01

Well I suppose somebody had to post the GEM tomorrow chart for day 10 

Not my cup of tea but I’m sure some might like it for the potential.

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

David M Porter
28 January 2019 17:19:54

 

It's a trend that is growing as I said yesterday. I really don't want to annoy people but if I'm commenting on the models, the writing is on the wall ***IF*** these verify. But the trend is becoming clearer. I'm not saying it will happen, but it's not looking like the Met Office 15-30 dayer which is painting a very wintry February with a higher than average chance of East or Northeast winds. I just do not see what they are seeing.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

AFAIK, no-one here works for the MetO and thus no-one here gets access to the full range of information that they have at their disposal.

Last February, there was a time when both the GFS & ECM op runs over a few days seemed to be somewhat at odds with the MetO's prediction of a major cold blast at the end of the month and we had some people here saying "Surely the MetO will have to change their forecast now", or words along those lines. We all know who was proved right in the end, which I why I for one think it would be wise to think the MetO will be wrong with their current thoughts no matter how poor GFS FI may look in some runs.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

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