Met becoming even more bullish with very cold weather more likely than not affecting the UK by mid month and continuing there after. Either that or they waste time tlking in their 16 to 30 dayer about the least likely scenario.
Of course the Met can be wrong ( their 16 to 15 dayers have been way off the mark so far this winter) but with back ground signals (SSW downwelling) more recent h500 model output things are beginning to change rapidly.
After the front and snow clears through on Wednesday I think it fairly safe to assume we will see further changes to the next incoming low albeit slightly weaker perhaps and more southerly tradjectory with it then undercutting. Siberian high and fridged cold moving west with heights building to our north and north east.The trend is our friend. If I was the one who had written the Mets 30 dayer I would be feeling very confident with regard to the outlook.
That has been the case up to a point. However, as Michael mentioned earlier in this thread and as I said in the media thread this afternoon, they weren't far, if at all, off the mark with their prediction from around Xmas/New Year of a change to generally colder conditions from mid-January onwards. Since mid-January in my location, the only days that I would defninitely describe as being mild here were Friday and Saturday just gone.
Had the MetO's forecast of colder weather taking hold in the middle of this month failed to materialise, I would be rather less confident in their forecast for February. I'm not saying that they will definitely be proved correct again here, but from looking at the model output at the moment I see no indication of a major pressure rise to our SE in the reliable/semi-reliable timeframe.
Lenzie, Glasgow
"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022