...there is still time for winter to jump out of the computer screens and bite! Will it happen? The model output is inconclusive still. Personally I doubt we'll see a repeat of last year's freeze but you never can say for sure. What's clear is this is shaping up to be the best virtual winter on record. In the same way that 1962/63 has attained mythical status in the real word, 2018/19 will do the same for the virtual one. 

What's a virtual winter? If it's a good one because the models make it good, then surely it has to be the nearly now to be nearly real? But T+ less-than-120 is almost never that good.

I sadly wonder if what you say isn't true when I look at the ECM:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ecm/240_mslp850.png?cb=699

Where, at the theoretically coldest time of the year, is the cold?

Many twists and turns though - Icon 18z operational has flipped to the GFS solution at 114 -120 hours.

Really not possible to make this stuff up - never known such model volatility at short range.

I went into the gym at 6pm and the atmosphere in here was euphoric with snow forecasts galore for next week.

After a workout, a swim, and a Tesco shop, it’s like a wake in here.

Let me guess - an operational run from a well known European model wasn’t very good?!? ;-) 

ECM Op goes pear shaped in the unreliable as per usual. On the plus side, 18z ICON has decided to stop making us miserable and has joined the GFS camp.

No consistency in any model.

The whole suite is worsening run by run with the op largely supported as a milder outcome.  Hope you had a nice sauna. 

ha! I did thank you. 

And thanks to Maunder too for his update. 

All eyes on the 18z GFS then, particularly the parallel.

Tuesday/Wednesday the days to watch next week for now. 

Here's the snow row league table.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/snowrow.aspx

I'll polish and integrate into the site in the next few days.

Thanks Brian - a nice addition 

Be easier to draw a vertical line south to north. 

Here's the snow row league table.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/snowrow.aspx

I'll polish and integrate into the site in the next few days.

 Good to see Inverness holding its own against some European heavyweights 

The snow eye candy of the GFS does not hold water - no pun intended, because the 850hpa is too high in our region for too long. But hey, it's a pretty picture for sure - 1979 like but less cold. Odd just how close this is to real time at 150hrs, with 144 being semi-reliable in normal conditions, but now T96 is not even a sure bet. These are strange times indeed. E.g ice in the high Arctic off Norway given 10 years max to disappear! Sad but a call to arms hopefully. I am cutting down on meat to once a week, small beer, but if everyone reduced meat it all helps. Saves money and belly fat too. Lol. 

.. yes and it’s a wintry one. 

A significant snow risk. 

Last time i remember seeing that was 2010. Not saying this is the same... just when stuck under a big trough. Micro features develop. Its where we saw areas get repeated 6" falls.

Interesting times.

Yes - back to models: agreed - 360 return to sustained cold. The longest ever roller coaster ride - this! 

Laughs out loud @ ROme (41'N) being more Snowy than Plymouth (50'N) !!

Except 2010 was much colder. The possibility of snow is there rather than a probability IMO. It is still generally cold though, with “messy” synoptics. 

And Sean climatically most places are snowier than Plymouth. 

Yes I agree with this.

Being stuck under a big slack low can lead to dry weather for some and very cold nights, but also the risk of snow coming at very short notice. Being up in Scotland in December 2009 was notable for this. 

Tuesday & Wednesday are looking interesting. Light winds, low pressure and cold 850’s. Hard to see exactly where at this stage has the highest snow risk. Irish Sea convection looks likely and the showers could be slow moving. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_120_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_144_1.png

Uppers about -7C, dewpoints comfortably below freezing. Not snow for all, but I’d cautiously suggest snow for most at this stage (rather than rain). 

The odd thing about the recent cold snap was that the convection clouds in the Irish Sea got right across, albeit with the aid of a trough, to Norfolk, with both a dusting Wednesday night and another this morning, both with proper fluffy snow flakes. Ok - nothing massive but some years I'd be mighty grateful for those two garage light events and morning dusting reveals, so if that's the Amuse Bouche, bring on the main course please. 

The key, as you say, was the disturbance that ran SE - and became a discrete low pressure system in the southern North Sea.  

Yes Gandalf, agreed. The track seems similar to the prognosis in the model outputs today (GFS and ICON), with slider lows tracking behind - like the parent following behind yesterday's child- running ahead...

I think you may be being too pessimistic... If you look at 850s from Dec 17 snow event (which i appreciate didn’t give anything to your area - it did here though not to the extent of some places in midlands and SE) they were a notably higher than what the 18z has as complex low pressure systems swirl around our vicinity for days in end in a week or so’s time.