They seem to count even a flake of sleet as full-on snow, so if there's 1mm of rain (with the odd flake of sleet) it'll appear as 1cm of accumulated snow.

IMBY, which is shown as having exclusively rain and sleet, has a cover of 2cm of snow as a result. It doesn't add up, but for areas where just snow is forecast it's still a relatively useful tool.

(You can see the precip type by changing to "significant weather" on the list of parameters on weather.us).

My view on the snow depth charts is they work much better in continental climates where parameters are less marginal. The GFS ones have been available for years, and when people have asked me I have told them to treat them with a huge dose of salt. The ECM ones could be marginally better, although it's like comparing Kettle Chips to Tyrells, largely down to personal taste. 

Taken as a whole, if the FI MO had verified this Winter we'd be looking at an exceptionally cold, snowy one. The actual verification stats for FI must be 0-10%, and as others have pointed out, the GFS model which goes out furthest has been extremely poor.

The volatility from the models is striking and it has to be something to do with the SSW event. Presently it is impossible to predict with any certainty what weather we are going to get 3 to 4 days out, let alone a week or so ahead. This volatility shows no sign of reducing.

Upto 144h there is definitely still interest its post 144 which has gone Pete Tong this morning 

Taken with the post above yours does that mean there is 90 to 100% chance of it being cold when the time the current FI timescale comes to reality?

I am confused how beyond day 6 is dismissed when cold is shown consistently, yet give one or two sets of runs showing milder conditions then it is a foregone conclusion. 

😂

The ‘runner’ low has just the right track and just the right side of marginal uppers to deliver snow to some areas in the south for a few hours Weds am. All gone from late Weds if the same model is correct.

The general feeling of frustration is warranted IMO for those of us looking for more than sleet above 200m. On three occasions in so many weeks promising signs that the touted HLB will develop have dissolved. Of course it works both ways and still six weeks of realistic potential. 

As most of the really cold winter weather this season has appeared in FI with very little ever verifying I think some people will see mild charts in FI as a certainty as that’s the usual fair in the UK. 

I don’t believe February will disappoint but that’s my own opinion .

Certain people believe if the models show a man of outcome then it is guaranteed, basing this on our temperate client. Usually right but when not they forget they said that and join in with cold chasing.

The Law of Sod. 

It's going to take a big flip now for the 144h to 240h period to go cold again. But still time, ironically the mighty ICON is Ok post 144h the best of a bad bunch . And the Para is still very good . Up to 144 as you say some snow chances for many. Im trying to be positive Doc thats the best I could do. 

Another positive post from me is that the ECM 192+ has been so poor this winter its become a joke.

ECMENS look pretty mediocre.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwfens.aspx?run=00&lg=850&lglocation=london

To be honest at this point it would be more of a disappointment if Feb continues in the “coldish category” rather than going straight to spring. What I really dread is the cold-but-not-properly-cold stuff dragging on to the end of March again.  Bring on spring!

The general rule of course is the operational runs need to be largely ignored after T+168. The ensembles should then be used instead for broad trends.

I forget that sometimes, I think you forget too, in fact I think we’re all guilty of this sometimes. 

We had a discussion a couple of weeks ago whether the NWP have improved at all in the past decade, given all the computing power and millions thrown at them - well clearly, when it comes to the UK and our winters, they have gone backwards instead of forwards.

Never believe computer models bearing winter gifts, since unless it is nailed on at t+72, it isn't going to happen. As Brian succinctly put it last night, this has been the best virtual winter ever, whilst for lowland Britain is has been as crappy as any (when it comes to lying snow and extended cold that is).

So another  January is about to bite the dust having delivered nothing of note outside of the usual favoured upland areas.

Good point but in past winters ECM could be relied upon to be much better in the 192h period than it has been this winter. 

ECM Means look poor as well post 144h. 

120h looks of interest though with the channel low showing up to some extent in the mean.

Given the massive let down so far, I would agree with you absolutely - early spring beats cold rain any time.

So far, this winter has been scuppered because the evil PV remnant took up residence in eastern Canada. What I would like to see meteorologists explain is why Canada is so favoured by the winter PV in preference to other locations. Even following a major SSW, that evil pustule gathered its forces together in absolutely the worst possible location for this side of the Pond. Why?

I would not disagree with any of that Neil. It certainly has been frustrating this season so far and I would not be surprised if that theme continues despite the potential in coming days.

The ECM profile of the Greenie high places it much further north than GFS and it's nowhere near as potent.

However, same old AH appears to be winning out.

Yesterday, I said at least mild westerlies were not on the table - I may need to eat my words!

Looking much better in the North.

Ultimately they are like water. They always find a way. 

Treating snow depths with salt is never productive. 

Yes, ECM mean is awful for coldies. Time to hang up the hats for another year chaps

Other people can throw in the towel if they want, but unless/until the MetO change their thoughts for February radically (which thus far they have not done despite a few predictions from someone here that they would do so) I will not be doing that.

There is so much volatility in the output at the moment than I think all solutions shown for more than 5-6 days ahead are suspect.

While ECM & UKMO at 144 are def poor for coldies, GFS 00z OP and para are good at 144 and remain good throughout the runs. Any of the Big 3 can be right in these clashes at 144 and we know we have had a SSW which favours the outcomes the GFS OP and Para favour.

Moreover, late winter is when easterlies are most favoured so it is daft to throw in the towel regarding easterlies on 25 Jan just because some of the models have flipped overnight.

00z ECM @ 240  - So much cringe!

What a joke!

This really is as bad as it can get if you want cold & snow.

LP after LP developing off eastern seaboard of N. America, LP over Iceland and Greenland! High pressure strengthening over the Azores... etc?

So much for the 'northern blocked' Feb the ECM were forecasting!

We really need to see this shift and soon otherwise we will be in Feb soon and would not have had any HLB that all seasonal models went for.

The good news is that when the 12z ECM comes out at least it won't be as bad as the 00z run! We have had some let downs before but this one tops it!

Absolutely, ridiculous to throw in the towel on 25 Jan and on the basis of a poor overnight suite. Prospects for next week look good. Met still confident long term as is John Hammond.