On face value it is a horror show for coldies in most of the UK this morning. However, the changes in the output aren't huge. The European sinkhole remains as does the lack of HLB and it is the latter which has scuppered things so far. In Dec the MetO were "confident" high pressure would move to Scandinavia in January but that simply hasn't happened. It's too early to call February and it could of course deliver a few surprises. However, nature seemingly has known what the machines haven't this year.  

Yes, pretty much summed by today really. One of the guys on the other side did an ECM ensemble watch for Jan 25 from Day 16 down to the big volte face last Friday, up until then members showed various degrees of cold for London from low single digits to ice days - none showed the actual plus 11C.

Yes a real horror show on the ECM. Wednesday is especially poor but it gets better after that (in FI?) for milder weather fans

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/snow-depth/20190130-0900z.html

(Apologies for posting actual model output )

 

Yes, pretty much summed by today really. One of the guys on the other side did an ECM ensemble watch for Jan 25 from Day 16 down to the big volte face last Friday, up until then members showed various degrees of cold for London from low single digits to ice days - none showed the actual plus 11C.

 

 I'm sure the GEFS would be similar. 

So what you’re saying is that the generally or currently more specifically the milder weather at that range should be discounted at that range and we should focus on the next five days or so?

For the record the GEFS had the milder weather for today/tomorrow clearly on the ensembles from Sunday, before then just hints.

Yes a real horror show on the ECM. Wednesday is especially poor but it gets better after that (in FI?) for milder weather fans

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/snow-depth/20190130-0900z.html

(Apologies for posting actual model output )

I think those snow depth charts have been widely discredited haven't they ? 

Yes a real horror show on the ECM. Wednesday is especially poor but it gets better after that (in FI?) for milder weather fans

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/snow-depth/20190130-0900z.html

(Apologies for posting actual model output )

 

Not much change although the GEFS have done another shift to less cold leaving the virtually decent synoptics where they’ve been for most of the winter - in virtual space. 

fair summary, the hunt continues 

The wintry theme continues this morning :-)

Mid next week continues to be worth a watch.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPARAEU00_108_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPARAEU00_147_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPARAEU00_147_2.png

Overnight Wednesday in particular with a feature crossing central parts within cold air. 

After 1st Feb there is more scatter - but still way too soon to conclude that it’s the shape of the pear. 

 

I think those snow depth charts have been widely discredited haven't they ? 

They are indicative of the synoptics and potential not the exact depths to be expected. The outlook is cold until the unreliable stage*.

*This unreliability/“FI” discussed by yourself and Brian above.

ECM is indeed more dissappointing as snow would be more likely to be confined to hills. I prefer the GFS solution. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_120_1.png

I think those snow depth charts have been widely discredited haven't they ? 

They seem to count even a flake of sleet as full-on snow, so if there's 1mm of rain (with the odd flake of sleet) it'll appear as 1cm of accumulated snow.

IMBY, which is shown as having exclusively rain and sleet, has a cover of 2cm of snow as a result. It doesn't add up, but for areas where just snow is forecast it's still a relatively useful tool.

(You can see the precip type by changing to "significant weather" on the list of parameters on weather.us).

My view on the snow depth charts is they work much better in continental climates where parameters are less marginal. The GFS ones have been available for years, and when people have asked me I have told them to treat them with a huge dose of salt. The ECM ones could be marginally better, although it's like comparing Kettle Chips to Tyrells, largely down to personal taste. 

Taken as a whole, if the FI MO had verified this Winter we'd be looking at an exceptionally cold, snowy one. The actual verification stats for FI must be 0-10%, and as others have pointed out, the GFS model which goes out furthest has been extremely poor.

The volatility from the models is striking and it has to be something to do with the SSW event. Presently it is impossible to predict with any certainty what weather we are going to get 3 to 4 days out, let alone a week or so ahead. This volatility shows no sign of reducing.

Yes a real horror show on the ECM. Wednesday is especially poor but it gets better after that (in FI?) for milder weather fans

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/snow-depth/20190130-0900z.html

(Apologies for posting actual model output )

Upto 144h there is definitely still interest its post 144 which has gone Pete Tong this morning 

 

 

Upto 144h there is definitely still interest its post 144 which has gone Pete Tong this morning 

Taken with the post above yours does that mean there is 90 to 100% chance of it being cold when the time the current FI timescale comes to reality?

I am confused how beyond day 6 is dismissed when cold is shown consistently, yet give one or two sets of runs showing milder conditions then it is a foregone conclusion. 

Yes a real horror show on the ECM. Wednesday is especially poor but it gets better after that (in FI?) for milder weather fans

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/snow-depth/20190130-0900z.html

(Apologies for posting actual model output )

😂

The ‘runner’ low has just the right track and just the right side of marginal uppers to deliver snow to some areas in the south for a few hours Weds am. All gone from late Weds if the same model is correct.

The general feeling of frustration is warranted IMO for those of us looking for more than sleet above 200m. On three occasions in so many weeks promising signs that the touted HLB will develop have dissolved. Of course it works both ways and still six weeks of realistic potential. 

 

Taken with the post above yours does that mean there is 90 to 100% chance of it being cold when the time the current FI timescale comes to reality?

I am confused how beyond day 6 is dismissed when cold is shown consistently, yet give one or two sets of runs showing milder conditions then it is a foregone conclusion. 

As most of the really cold winter weather this season has appeared in FI with very little ever verifying I think some people will see mild charts in FI as a certainty as that’s the usual fair in the UK. 

I don’t believe February will disappoint but that’s my own opinion .

 

Taken with the post above yours does that mean there is 90 to 100% chance of it being cold when the time the current FI timescale comes to reality?

I am confused how beyond day 6 is dismissed when cold is shown consistently, yet give one or two sets of runs showing milder conditions then it is a foregone conclusion. 

Certain people believe if the models show a man of outcome then it is guaranteed, basing this on our temperate client. Usually right but when not they forget they said that and join in with cold chasing.

 

Taken with the post above yours does that mean there is 90 to 100% chance of it being cold when the time the current FI timescale comes to reality?

I am confused how beyond day 6 is dismissed when cold is shown consistently, yet give one or two sets of runs showing milder conditions then it is a foregone conclusion. 

The Law of Sod. 

It's going to take a big flip now for the 144h to 240h period to go cold again. But still time, ironically the mighty ICON is Ok post 144h the best of a bad bunch . And the Para is still very good . Up to 144 as you say some snow chances for many. Im trying to be positive Doc thats the best I could do. 

Another positive post from me is that the ECM 192+ has been so poor this winter its become a joke.