ECMENS look pretty mediocre.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwfens.aspx?run=00&lg=850&lglocation=london

 

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As most of the really cold winter weather this season has appeared in FI with very little ever verifying I think some people will see mild charts in FI as a certainty as that’s the usual fair in the UK. 

I don’t believe February will disappoint but that’s my own opinion .

To be honest at this point it would be more of a disappointment if Feb continues in the “coldish category” rather than going straight to spring. What I really dread is the cold-but-not-properly-cold stuff dragging on to the end of March again.  Bring on spring!

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Another positive post from me is that the ECM 192+ has been so poor this winter its become a joke.

The general rule of course is the operational runs need to be largely ignored after T+168. The ensembles should then be used instead for broad trends.

I forget that sometimes, I think you forget too, in fact I think we’re all guilty of this sometimes. 

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Another positive post from me is that the ECM 192+ has been so poor this winter its become a joke.

We had a discussion a couple of weeks ago whether the NWP have improved at all in the past decade, given all the computing power and millions thrown at them - well clearly, when it comes to the UK and our winters, they have gone backwards instead of forwards.

Never believe computer models bearing winter gifts, since unless it is nailed on at t+72, it isn't going to happen. As Brian succinctly put it last night, this has been the best virtual winter ever, whilst for lowland Britain is has been as crappy as any (when it comes to lying snow and extended cold that is).

So another  January is about to bite the dust having delivered nothing of note outside of the usual favoured upland areas.

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The general rule of course is the operational runs need to be largely ignored after T+168. The ensembles should then be used instead for broad trends.

I forget that sometimes, I think you forget too, in fact I think we’re all guilty of this sometimes. 

 

Good point but in past winters ECM could be relied upon to be much better in the 192h period than it has been this winter. 

ECM Means look poor as well post 144h. 

120h looks of interest though with the channel low showing up to some extent in the mean.

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To be honest at this point it would be more of a disappointment if Feb continues in the “coldish category” rather than going straight to spring. What I really dread is the cold-but-not-properly-cold stuff dragging on to the end of March again.  Bring on spring!

Given the massive let down so far, I would agree with you absolutely - early spring beats cold rain any time.

So far, this winter has been scuppered because the evil PV remnant took up residence in eastern Canada. What I would like to see meteorologists explain is why Canada is so favoured by the winter PV in preference to other locations. Even following a major SSW, that evil pustule gathered its forces together in absolutely the worst possible location for this side of the Pond. Why?

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😂

The ‘runner’ low has just the right track and just the right side of marginal uppers to deliver snow to some areas in the south for a few hours Weds am. All gone from late Weds if the same model is correct.

The general feeling of frustration is warranted IMO for those of us looking for more than sleet above 200m. On three occasions in so many weeks promising signs that the touted HLB will develop have dissolved. Of course it works both ways and still six weeks of realistic potential. 

I would not disagree with any of that Neil. It certainly has been frustrating this season so far and I would not be surprised if that theme continues despite the potential in coming days.

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The ECM profile of the Greenie high places it much further north than GFS and it's nowhere near as potent.

However, same old AH appears to be winning out.

Yesterday, I said at least mild westerlies were not on the table - I may need to eat my words!

Looking much better in the North.

Yesterday, I said at least mild westerlies were not on the table - I may need to eat my words!

Ultimately they are like water. They always find a way. 

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My view on the snow depth charts is they work much better in continental climates where parameters are less marginal. The GFS ones have been available for years, and when people have asked me I have told them to treat them with a huge dose of salt. 

Treating snow depths with salt is never productive. 

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Ultimately they are like water. They always find a way. 

Yes, ECM mean is awful for coldies. Time to hang up the hats for another year chaps

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Other people can throw in the towel if they want, but unless/until the MetO change their thoughts for February radically (which thus far they have not done despite a few predictions from someone here that they would do so) I will not be doing that.

There is so much volatility in the output at the moment than I think all solutions shown for more than 5-6 days ahead are suspect.

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GEFS are rock solid cold to 31 Jan north and south and remain mostly cold til 7 Feb in the north but no clear signal cold or mild for London 1 to 7 Feb.

While ECM & UKMO at 144 are def poor for coldies, GFS 00z OP and para are good at 144 and remain good throughout the runs. Any of the Big 3 can be right in these clashes at 144 and we know we have had a SSW which favours the outcomes the GFS OP and Para favour.


Moreover, late winter is when easterlies are most favoured so it is daft to throw in the towel regarding easterlies on 25 Jan just because some of the models have flipped overnight.

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00z ECM @ 240  - So much cringe!

What a joke!

This really is as bad as it can get if you want cold & snow.

LP after LP developing off eastern seaboard of N. America, LP over Iceland and Greenland! High pressure strengthening over the Azores... etc?

So much for the 'northern blocked' Feb the ECM were forecasting!

We really need to see this shift and soon otherwise we will be in Feb soon and would not have had any HLB that all seasonal models went for.

The good news is that when the 12z ECM comes out at least it won't be as bad as the 00z run! We have had some let downs before but this one tops it!

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Other people can throw in the towel if they want, but unless/until the MetO change their thoughts for February radically (which thus far they have not done despite a few predictions from someone here that they would do so) I will not be doing that.

There is so much volatility in the output at the moment than I think all solutions shown for more than 5-6 days ahead are suspect.

Absolutely, ridiculous to throw in the towel on 25 Jan and on the basis of a poor overnight suite. Prospects for next week look good. Met still confident long term as is John Hammond.

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Given the massive let down so far, I would agree with you absolutely - early spring beats cold rain any time.

So far, this winter has been scuppered because the evil PV remnant took up residence in eastern Canada. What I would like to see meteorologists explain is why Canada is so favoured by the winter PV in preference to other locations. Even following a major SSW, that evil pustule gathered its forces together in absolutely the worst possible location for this side of the Pond. Why?

I would assume it is to do with the North Atlantic Drift which encourages the jet to head northwards as it crosses the Atlantic, which would tend to trap the displaced vortex over North America - if it is being forced southwards from the pole then it will presumably settle in a southward "valley" of the jet stream, which will tend to be over Canada, in between the northward loops over the Pacific and the Atlantic.

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Hoping the ICON 6z followed the 00z for these parts. Threw up a big snow event on the 0z for next Wednesday!

GFS has the low slightly further SE makes is colder, snowier better. 

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GEFS are rock solid cold to 31 Jan north and south and remain mostly cold til 7 Feb in the north but no clear signal cold or mild for London 1 to 7 Feb.

While ECM & UKMO at 144 are def poor for coldies, GFS 00z OP and para are good at 144 and remain good throughout the runs. Any of the Big 3 can be right in these clashes at 144 and we know we have had a SSW which favours the outcomes the GFS OP and Para favour.


Moreover, late winter is when easterlies are most favoured so it is daft to throw in the towel regarding easterlies on 25 Jan just because some of the models have flipped overnight.

 

In response to the highlighted but above.

For down here (and I know that very IMBY) it's less certain to be cold. Plenty of milder options in there.

In fact, just like last week, the closer we get to the period in question, the greater the scatter. 

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Some ridiculous comments today, given we are potentially looking at the snowiest week of winter coming up. Anyway some decent looking short term charts with Wednesday throwing up some interest of potential disruption. Mind you some will be too busy looking at 240hr charts to look outside the window!