You could easily be describing me, there!

well the first of the 12s the ICON is a kind of no man's land halfway house of a run neither good nor bad. 

UKMO has the channel runner at 96h Interesting!

A literal interpretation of the ICON would be an absolute snow fest for me.

Warm occlusions everywhere!

Seems a recent trend too, especially with the ECM, for operationals to be at the milder end of the ensembles post t144. GFS trending that way, too which seems to be skewing the mood.

UKMO 144h is a bit rubbish low blows out way west.

very disappointing 12s post 120h so far especially considering the Meto update.

60h to 120h looks to be the snow window down here for now.

Another poor set of runs so far with the cold lifted out before the system in from the Atlantic. The Ops are leading the way in the 6/7 day range whilst the METO continues with it's jam tomorrow outlooks.

Yes but interesting why the GFS op run shows maxes of +1 or 2c for Tuesday whilst the BBC and Met offices goes for highs of +8 or 9c for Tuesday so I wonder if the GFS are over doing this snow potential for Tues?

Plus very early stages but I am so surprise the models are still not in agreement with met Office and the met office are still so bullish about cold and easterly or north easterly winds!?

Mid afternoon maxes for Tuesday 

Even though it is Atlantic dominated, there is just no punch in the pattern at all.  Very abnormal, as it has been all season. 

Generally though the cold uppers may not be quite cold enough for any widespread low level snow and things are still finely balanced. Even by day 10 on this GFS op run the t850s are sub zero across the U.K. and it is cold, but again perhaps not “cold enough”.

It will be typically 3-5C warmer than that.

I think the only thing heading for Biscay will be the Azores High as we move further forward. 

We can only say that if they verify.

Something a bit more encouraging at 264:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_264_7.png

Indeed the Met seem to be refusing to bow to the inevitable - whether it is a desire not to lose face or what I don't know, but if I had to bet I would say it is now vanishingly unlikely there will be any "cold or very cold" spell in the remainder of this winter.

Still a lot of potential when the Jet heads to Spain for its holidays. For that reason, im taking the milder feel with a pinch of salt and will try and enjoy my Friday evening :)

Onto the next run.

Indeed, Steve.

Someone mentioned this morning that 3-4 days ahead seems to have been the limit of reliability for much of the time in recent days, although saying that, the current milder interlude was first picked up on last weekend IIRC.

Well we saw that game changer last Friday with the ICON and the ECM and indeed today has turned out milder than even those runs showed. But it took the METO until Sunday to do a volte face on the forecast.

Similarly one poor run for Thursday 31/1 onwards has become across the board now, so it's another let down and at the very least another shunt backwards for the 'easterliers/north easterlies'.

Quite a flip for many parts of the USA as well? Taste of spring even?

It was picked up on last Friday by the ECM/ICON and dismissed by a few on here