Yes, ECM mean is awful for coldies. Time to hang up the hats for another year chaps

Why is a meaningless ensemble mean chart showing a prediction for ten days ahead grounds for writing off the next six weeks?

If nothing else is apparent from the last 3-4 weeks of model output it is that even the broad pattern is as clear as mud in terms of the specifics for our little corner of the eastern Atlantic.  Focussing on the next five days we have a briefly milder interlude then cold again. Beyond that possibly another chunk of the polar vortex heading our way - with the exact timing and track I clear.

Some ridiculous comments today, given we are potentially looking at the snowiest week of winter coming up. Anyway some decent looking short term charts with Wednesday throwing up some interest of potential disruption. Mind you some will be too busy looking at 240hr charts to look outside the window!

To be fair "the snowiest week of the winter" given that many people haven't seen any snow, or at least nothing settling, since March last year, is not saying much!

So far, this winter has been scuppered because the evil PV remnant took up residence in eastern Canada. What I would like to see meteorologists explain is why Canada is so favoured by the winter PV in preference to other locations. Even following a major SSW, that evil pustule gathered its forces together in absolutely the worst possible location for this side of the Pond. Why?

I've heard it said  weak to weakly mod El Nino's tend to favour the current upper pattern over the N. American continent. 

My thoughts are now turning to Spring. Typically the most boring season of the year, but just watching the sun breaking through the dirty low clouds here at the moment, the brightness has a spring-like quality about it, with a spring-like temp to go with it, and it looks and feels good. 

This winter be damned. 

Agree some of the comments on here are toys out of the pram moments. The output for the past few days has been pretty consistent for <144. Beyond that and it turns people bipolar - happy one minute, sad the next.

Compare next week to the Azores HP dominated weather we saw Dec and early Jan and really - next week anyone could see a very heavy snow fall. Bags of potential. Infact - potentially some of the snowiest weather for some time, for some areas.

Lets realise the potential and stop dwelling on an occasional bad run for something that might or might not happen in 2 weeks.

The good news is that both the 6z GFS and ICON are better with less blowing up of the low at 120h . Hopefully this trend can continue into the 12s.

 

To be fair "the snowiest week of the winter" given that many people haven't seen any snow, or at least nothing settling, since March last year, is not saying much!

thats the point though spend time looking for something then miss it or moan it’s not enough!! Always looking for something better

You couldn't make it up could yiou!? What a messy looking 06z FI:

On 06z GFS you have an almighty big HP building off the eastern  seaboard of N.America. 

So this goes for the exact opposite for the 12z run? 

Not sure the Met will change their outlook on the back of one ECM run and gnashing of teeth in here...

I for one am keeping an open mind and will keep looking East at the High developing there.  This could be the source of the Easterly the MetO refer to.

Taken as a whole, if the FI MO had verified this Winter we'd be looking at an exceptionally cold, snowy one. The actual verification stats for FI must be 0-10%, and as others have pointed out, the GFS model which goes out furthest has been extremely poor.

The volatility from the models is striking and it has to be something to do with the SSW event. Presently it is impossible to predict with any certainty what weather we are going to get 3 to 4 days out, let alone a week or so ahead. This volatility shows no sign of reducing.

 

Except for this mild blip which of course they got spot on!

You couldn't make it up could yiou!? What a messy looking 06z FI:

So this goes for the exact opposite for the 12z run? 

 

That reminds me of I think early march 2006.  Western parts of britain got caught under a stalled front.  Brought about 5" snow to some

chart for reference:

 

Taken with the post above yours does that mean there is 90 to 100% chance of it being cold when the time the current FI timescale comes to reality?

I am confused how beyond day 6 is dismissed when cold is shown consistently, yet give one or two sets of runs showing milder conditions then it is a foregone conclusion. 

Whilst I agree to a point, and just a few runs ago the GFS mean was as bad as it is now and recovered, we know from past experience that the cold verifies less than the mild otherwise we would have had a lot more cold winters in the last ten years. Today and tomorrow are a case in point, been on the charts for a while now and this mild spell hasn't become a snowy one!

ECM ENS much warmer than of late now out into February. They'll probably flip back again in a day or two 

 

The general rule of course is the operational runs need to be largely ignored after T+168. The ensembles should then be used instead for broad trends.

I forget that sometimes, I think you forget too, in fact I think we’re all guilty of this sometimes. 

These days I just wait for the ensembles to come out. If there is a tight cluster around the mean including the op I then look at the operational chart to see what synoptics are responsible. Slightly less disappointments these days doing that.

 

Whilst I agree to a point, and just a few runs ago the GFS mean was as bad as it is now and recovered, we know from past experience that the cold verifies less than the mild otherwise we would have had a lot more cold winters in the last ten years. Today and tomorrow are a case in point, been on the charts for a while now and this mild spell hasn't become a snowy one!

Personally I would describe this as more of a mild "blip" than a mild spell, just as we would call a couple or so days of cold weather as a cold snap as opposed to a cold spell. It is true to say that this milder couple of days was spotted by the models several days ago, but it is also the case that they indicated this as being a brief interlude lasting no more than 24-48 hours at most rather than a sustained milder period as we had earlier in the winter.

As I said earlier, as long as the MetO are expecting the predominanly colder weather into February then I see no reason to think they are barking up the wrong tree, no matter what the operational runs may show into FI. Some of us here were starting to have doubts last February about the arrival of the Beast when it looked at one point as though the GFS and ECM op runs were backing away from it. That was also a time of much variance in the model output just like we are seeing presently.

 

That reminds me of I think early march 2006.  Western parts of britain got caught under a stalled front.  Brought about 5" snow to some

 

chart for reference:

Yea so different to 0z run of gfs which had a big deep low developing off the eastern seaboard of N.america . Compare that with the T 384 z 06z run ...it couldn't be more different with an almighty big HP building off the eastern seaboard of N.America to give the eastern coast of N. America milder weather and finally NOT blasting up the jet and allowing a Scandinavian high to build thus to give us an easterly we have long waited for but I guess this will all change again on the 12s.🙄

One thing to keep in mind when low pressure dominates.

The 850hpa level is usually at ~1500m, but if the SLP is 980mb then its going to be around ~1300m. So 'snow above 200m' becomes 'snow at sea level'.

Lovely stuff from the 6z Para complete snowfest 144 - 168h . Now come in 12s pull your finger out!

One thing to keep in mind when low pressure dominates.

The 850hpa level is usually at ~1500m, but if the SLP is 980mb then its going to be around ~1300m. So 'snow above 200m' becomes 'snow at sea level'.

 

^This with bells on.  Its not often we can discuss a LP driven snow event.  Most of the time its driven from wind direction and an incoming front. But snowfall (in  england and wales at least) from a LP centre is quite rare to these parts.  Infact I think my biggest ever witnesses snowfall back in i think 1996 Feb.  Came from a very similar event. We had about 6inches.

06 gfs bombards us with cool northwesterly borne systems, never really gets close to anything we can label cold.
What a disaster this winter has been.

Weve literally just had that setup and the south east quadrant did quite well out of it, infact better than  the north west.  

I cant understand the negativity after the surprise snowfalls earlier this week.  Wheres the optimism gone?