Loving this - What a messed up chart:

I believe ICON makes use of the IFS which is one of the reasons it is now one of the best models. I suspect it probably outguns the current version of the UM, although verification stats are hard to come by.

TBH, I would be a bit reticent about making criticisms about the MetO outlooks, with all due respect.

I think that what all of us here would do well to remember at all times is that the MetO have more information available to them which comes in addition to the model runs that we the public have access to. Some members were questioning their prediction of a major cold blast last February when it seemed for a time as though the model runs we have access to were backing away from the idea of the Beast arriving at the end of that month. Indeed, I seem to recall that there was a brief unsettled and milder spell about 10 or so days before the Beast arrived. That was, IIRC, the last instance of atlantic-driven weather affecting us before pressure rose strongly over Scandi which precipitated the arrival of the Beast.

Remember, the MetO said at New Year that it would turn colder generally in mid-January and even though we have not gone into a deep freeze, it has been generally somewhat colder in many areas over the past week or so compared to much of December and the first half of January.

That makes no sense - why would today's update be an upgrade , they have had plenty of opportunities to remove certain words , they don't post out of ego.  You say inevitable …………..please enlighten us .

Of course I take nothing as Gospel but let's just remind ourselves of what the 06z run of the GFS showed in FI:

A easterly setting up on this mornings 06z run).

The latest 12z run: - A westerly albeit a very slack one! It's like we are in NO MAN'S land with little blocking to our north:

All eyes are on the ECM 12z run - I don't think In my (5 - 10 years of winter model watching), that I have ever seen such flips from run to run! I mean major flips! We are all aware that Flip flops and downgrades or upgrades are expected but these are huge swings every 6 hours. I suppose the 18z run of the GFS will flip back to cold again? The Para has shown some consistency for cold - which ties in with the Met office forecast! 

Looks to far south but once again the Para the pick of the bunch by 144h. Come on Para this is your moment.

Actually by GFS briefly last Wednesday. I took a screen shot of it as it was being dismissed but my fears at the time were realised.

Bros are back. Have they brought the late 80s winters with them? 

Its turning into a bit of a farce.

Oh bejesus, I had my hair in a Bros stylee 

But that was in 1988/1989 and those winters were rubbish.

If Para comes about then nighttime lows of -10c or -13c in Scotland! Next Tuesday night into Wed and wed into Thurs and Thurs into Friday etc! - before that cold air moves southwards!

No, not much change to the variable output beyond day 4 or so, generally cold throughout with the chance of milder interludes and a risk of snow at times. Also from what I can see the GEFS 12z ensemble data look steady too. 

As for charts picking up a milder day or two a week or so out, op runs tend to flag certain scenarios at a week to ten days out (linger for the GFS and its northerlies) sometimes they come to fruition and those are the ones that get discussed, sometimes they don’t and these “misses” get forgotten. The ensembles are more reliable but also far from infallible. 

Edit: Here is the 12z GEFS set for Aberdeen (other locations are available!) 

Let's just say I was at the 1979 Man Utd vs Arsenal Cup Final. A lot of people left before the last 5 minutes and missed three goals and a remarkable turn round. It's never over till it's over - 5 weeks.

The Para has hacked into the met office and now produces their forecasts 

Well to be fair the ECM 00z op run had this for Tuesday night into Wednesday https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/4a04f59a55d47ee2f1126f484fd78c00/temperature/20190130-0900z.html 

I thought it was the RUSSIANs? 

But seriously that's the only run that hasn't wildly flip flopped like other runs! Will the para materialise or sooner or later the Met Office will have to change their updated forecast. What's also interesting is that as we head into Feb the Atlantic is supposed to be weaker anyway and both Jan and Feb were forecast to be blocked months so i don't quite see it being as unsettled as the models show...! It can't be right Even if it is there seems to be NO blocking over Greenland:

P1 12z of ensembles takes us into a prolonged cold spell!

Double digit minima in the glens are perfectly plausible in this kind of set-up. But I am more interested in the alignment of one of those satellite lows dropping into the right place to give some old-school Channel Low M3/M4 corridor dumpage. The 12Z para has not one, not two but three of them in quick succession!

GFS 12z ensemble mean holding steady for cold next week but maintains a trend for less cold first week of February, or should I say higher mean 850hPa's to be more precise.

 Yes, I thought their moment of glory coincided with that horror show. 

I stayed till the very end 

GEFS shows a slight uptick the TOTAL snow rows, but most of this is focused on Monday and Wednesday.    Interesting development down here. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&time=240&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&tr=24&mv=0#mapref 

🤢🤢🤮🤮🤮🤮💩

In a galaxy far far away, in distant FI it appears met office’s crystal ball is finally latching onto something

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=12&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

Azores HP finally bu99ers off

It's there through large parts of the run. Here at T+72