I would assume it is to do with the North Atlantic Drift which encourages the jet to head northwards as it crosses the Atlantic, which would tend to trap the displaced vortex over North America - if it is being forced southwards from the pole then it will presumably settle in a southward "valley" of the jet stream, which will tend to be over Canada, in between the northward loops over the Pacific and the Atlantic.

Hoping the ICON 6z followed the 00z for these parts. Threw up a big snow event on the 0z for next Wednesday!

GFS has the low slightly further SE makes is colder, snowier better. 

In response to the highlighted but above.

For down here (and I know that very IMBY) it's less certain to be cold. Plenty of milder options in there.

In fact, just like last week, the closer we get to the period in question, the greater the scatter. 

Why is a meaningless ensemble mean chart showing a prediction for ten days ahead grounds for writing off the next six weeks?

If nothing else is apparent from the last 3-4 weeks of model output it is that even the broad pattern is as clear as mud in terms of the specifics for our little corner of the eastern Atlantic.  Focussing on the next five days we have a briefly milder interlude then cold again. Beyond that possibly another chunk of the polar vortex heading our way - with the exact timing and track I clear.

To be fair "the snowiest week of the winter" given that many people haven't seen any snow, or at least nothing settling, since March last year, is not saying much!

I've heard it said  weak to weakly mod El Nino's tend to favour the current upper pattern over the N. American continent. 

My thoughts are now turning to Spring. Typically the most boring season of the year, but just watching the sun breaking through the dirty low clouds here at the moment, the brightness has a spring-like quality about it, with a spring-like temp to go with it, and it looks and feels good. 

This winter be damned. 

Agree some of the comments on here are toys out of the pram moments. The output for the past few days has been pretty consistent for <144. Beyond that and it turns people bipolar - happy one minute, sad the next.

Compare next week to the Azores HP dominated weather we saw Dec and early Jan and really - next week anyone could see a very heavy snow fall. Bags of potential. Infact - potentially some of the snowiest weather for some time, for some areas.

Lets realise the potential and stop dwelling on an occasional bad run for something that might or might not happen in 2 weeks.

The good news is that both the 6z GFS and ICON are better with less blowing up of the low at 120h . Hopefully this trend can continue into the 12s.

thats the point though spend time looking for something then miss it or moan it’s not enough!! Always looking for something better

You couldn't make it up could yiou!? What a messy looking 06z FI:

On 06z GFS you have an almighty big HP building off the eastern  seaboard of N.America. 

So this goes for the exact opposite for the 12z run? 

Not sure the Met will change their outlook on the back of one ECM run and gnashing of teeth in here...

I for one am keeping an open mind and will keep looking East at the High developing there.  This could be the source of the Easterly the MetO refer to.

Except for this mild blip which of course they got spot on!

That reminds me of I think early march 2006.  Western parts of britain got caught under a stalled front.  Brought about 5" snow to some

chart for reference:

Whilst I agree to a point, and just a few runs ago the GFS mean was as bad as it is now and recovered, we know from past experience that the cold verifies less than the mild otherwise we would have had a lot more cold winters in the last ten years. Today and tomorrow are a case in point, been on the charts for a while now and this mild spell hasn't become a snowy one!

ECM ENS much warmer than of late now out into February. They'll probably flip back again in a day or two 

These days I just wait for the ensembles to come out. If there is a tight cluster around the mean including the op I then look at the operational chart to see what synoptics are responsible. Slightly less disappointments these days doing that.

Personally I would describe this as more of a mild "blip" than a mild spell, just as we would call a couple or so days of cold weather as a cold snap as opposed to a cold spell. It is true to say that this milder couple of days was spotted by the models several days ago, but it is also the case that they indicated this as being a brief interlude lasting no more than 24-48 hours at most rather than a sustained milder period as we had earlier in the winter.

As I said earlier, as long as the MetO are expecting the predominanly colder weather into February then I see no reason to think they are barking up the wrong tree, no matter what the operational runs may show into FI. Some of us here were starting to have doubts last February about the arrival of the Beast when it looked at one point as though the GFS and ECM op runs were backing away from it. That was also a time of much variance in the model output just like we are seeing presently.

Yea so different to 0z run of gfs which had a big deep low developing off the eastern seaboard of N.america . Compare that with the T 384 z 06z run ...it couldn't be more different with an almighty big HP building off the eastern seaboard of N.America to give the eastern coast of N. America milder weather and finally NOT blasting up the jet and allowing a Scandinavian high to build thus to give us an easterly we have long waited for but I guess this will all change again on the 12s.🙄

One thing to keep in mind when low pressure dominates.

The 850hpa level is usually at ~1500m, but if the SLP is 980mb then its going to be around ~1300m. So 'snow above 200m' becomes 'snow at sea level'.

Lovely stuff from the 6z Para complete snowfest 144 - 168h . Now come in 12s pull your finger out!

^This with bells on.  Its not often we can discuss a LP driven snow event.  Most of the time its driven from wind direction and an incoming front. But snowfall (in  england and wales at least) from a LP centre is quite rare to these parts.  Infact I think my biggest ever witnesses snowfall back in i think 1996 Feb.  Came from a very similar event. We had about 6inches.

What a disaster this winter has been.

Weve literally just had that setup and the south east quadrant did quite well out of it, infact better than  the north west.  

I cant understand the negativity after the surprise snowfalls earlier this week.  Wheres the optimism gone?