The GFSP is also encouraging (and still cold) out at day 7 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPARAEU12_174_1.png

It is indeed!

We've a cold week coming up with potential for snow in many places.

Signs thereafter of the models wanting to build heights to our north. Happy days 

I didn't know you were referring to the medium range stages of the GFS OP run re blocked!  I thought what block? yes a block but we are on the milder or warm side of the block.

 

Mild side of the block?

 

 

Spring will be racing in with those charts

 

Wouldn't that be the pits!

Euro 4 updated, shows the LP further North aka UKMO 

 

Yes everything trending further South as is often the case - the frustration is that the Low developing Tuesday will kill off the shower activity that would have occured in the NW and North Mids.

My sweetspot for the biggest snow depths England wise taking both events together is a triangle of Coventry-Northampton-Oxford.

 

Yes on this basis my personal preference is for the low to bugger off towards Biscay and France. 

The 12z runs look a bit better in this respect. 

 

Mild side of the block?

No, I mean't in deep in FI of the Op 12z run we would be on the milder side of the block and substantially so!

Meanwhile the 12z ensemble chart has come out and shows the Op run going off at one - a very mild outlier:

We have some cross model agreement @ 144:

ICON:

GFS PARA:

GFS OP:

GFS Control:

UKMO:

ECM:

 

Yes on this basis my personal preference is for the low to bugger off towards Biscay and France. 

The 12z runs look a bit better in this respect. 

If it's any consolation there's still likely to be a decent amount of cold rain (as well as some snow hopefully) on offer for us Southerners if it doesn't bugger off too far south, which means we can be pretend Northerners for the day whilst you stay dry and sunny

Ignoring the specifics up to T240 or so the 12z GFS is really rather interesting, with various snow opportunities from North to South, albeit never overly cold for most (Highland Scotland would no doubt be cold throughout!). After this point the nascent high level HP drains away amusingly quickly, which may just be an artefact of the lower resolution as Doc mentions.

Will have a look through the postage stamps at some point just to see if the FI blocking signal is still there and where the GFS has pinned the donkey tail this time

Given the OP run has snow (or sleet I guess) for me next Saturday as well as wintry precip for the North West I suspect the mild end to the week that was being floated a day or two back is very definitely under threat.

You know the non-FI outlook must be cold when the main discussion skips it and goes to 10 to 15 days out.

This meme sums it up 

Cold and then mixed sums up GEFS 12z.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=london&charthour=06&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM)

 

This meme sums it up 

A chilly and messy picture at 72hr on the ECM 12z 

Last week was total chaos here with just 6cm so LA shpuld be prepared.

Still no guarantee until we see the track of the lie tomorrow night 

ECM developing nicely

ECM T120 showing a messy picture for the far south. T144 looks better with colder uppers nationwide.

ECM T120 showing a messy picture for the far south. T144 looks better with colder uppers nationwide.

Even with lower 850s at t+144, thicknesses look in the high side for many in south east quadrant.

Some very marginal uppers throughout for most south of the M4
If it’s lashing cold rain you like with a bit of slush mixed in then this week should be a dream come true.
Show me some proper blocking and I’ll start getting interested, at the moment the fun is restricted to northern areas & parts of Wales.
Met office yellow area waaayyyyyy too far south given most of the output available today.

Some very marginal uppers throughout for most south of the M4
If it’s lashing cold rain you like with a bit of slush mixed in then this week should be a dream come true.
Show me some proper blocking and I’ll start getting interested, at the moment the fun is restricted to northern areas & parts of Wales.
Met office yellow area waaayyyyyy too far south given most of the output available today.

It'll be interesting to see what the HIRLAM and Euro4 hi-res show for Tuesday and also Thursday when they come into range soon.

Some very marginal uppers throughout for most south of the M4
If it’s lashing cold rain you like with a bit of slush mixed in then this week should be a dream come true.
Show me some proper blocking and I’ll start getting interested, at the moment the fun is restricted to northern areas & parts of Wales.
Met office yellow area waaayyyyyy too far south given most of the output available today.

ouch!