The trend is key here rather than the eventual conclusion into FI. It's clear to me (at least) that there's an evolving trend for a) lows tracking more south each model run, and b) heights rising to the N in that T+144 to T+168 period. More runs will be the test of whether the trend continues.

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🤮🤮🤮🤮
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

🤮🤮🤮🤮
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

You don't like cold and frosty weather

That's vaguely cold upper air under slack conditions = frost/fog fest other than the far North, which is warmer.

It's also materially different to it's 00z solution and is FI in a wildly fluctuating pattern.

But other than that, yarp, it's terrible

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Some very marginal uppers throughout for most south of the M4
If it’s lashing cold rain you like with a bit of slush mixed in then this week should be a dream come true.
Show me some proper blocking and I’ll start getting interested, at the moment the fun is restricted to northern areas & parts of Wales.
Met office yellow area waaayyyyyy too far south given most of the output available today.

The current output across the various models shows everything from a wintry mixture through to several hours of snow.  This will change from run to run but to dismiss it now as you are doing is not based on the model output, which is what this thread is supposed to be about.

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Some very marginal uppers throughout for most south of the M4
If it’s lashing cold rain you like with a bit of slush mixed in then this week should be a dream come true.
Show me some proper blocking and I’ll start getting interested, at the moment the fun is restricted to northern areas & parts of Wales.
Met office yellow area waaayyyyyy too far south given most of the output available today.

absolutely bang on the money WM, latest data suggests a lot of rain and perhaps sleet for many southern areas. Let’s hope we get an upgrade in the next 24 hours or there will be a lot of disappointment 

 

absolutely bang on the money WM, latest data suggests a lot of rain and perhaps sleet for many southern areas. Let’s hope we get an upgrade in the next 24 hours or there will be a lot of disappointment 

We need to see what the hi-res models show with regards to precipitation next week before being in any way confident as to what falls from the sky (even then these systems look likely to be nowcast events).

There's more to it than just upper air temperature, as I'm sure you know.

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

Looks like a settled and dry chart. Spring is flexing its muscles.  🌞🌸

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absolutely bang on the money WM, latest data suggests a lot of rain and perhaps sleet for many southern areas. Let’s hope we get an upgrade in the next 24 hours or there will be a lot of disappointment 

 

I'm sorry this is just bollox plenty of data today has shown snow for the south over the next week or so. It's definitely marginal but to say its all rain is wrong.

 

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Looks like a settled and dry chart. Spring is flexing its muscles.  🌞🌸

Hmmm, I wouldn't go betting my life savings on that.

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Hmmm, I wouldn't go betting my life savings on that.

Nor would I. But both the ECM and GFS do seem to be keen on pressure rising over Iberia as we reach T+240 or beyond.

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I'm sorry this is just bollox plenty of data today has shown snow for the south over the next week or so. It's definitely marginal but to say its all rain is wrong.

 

Not all rain, some sleet and slushy wet snow mixed in. I doubt much we’ll settle at low levels. To say this thread is not for discussing a perfectly plausible outcome shown in the output then reprimand others for doing so in a manner that apprarently goes against their favoured option is rather hypercritical ☹️

 

Nor would I. But both the ECM and GFS do seem to be keen on pressure rising over Iberia as we reach T+240 or beyond.

That's true. In saying that though, the period for a week or more ahead IMO at the moment is even more open to question that it would be normally. There has been a great deal of uncertainty in recent days about the exact development during the coming week and if what happens only a few days ahead is in some doubt, then it goes without saying that development 7-10 days & more ahead will be even more shrouded in uncertainty than would normally be the case.

It striked me that we are in one of those situations where a lot could change in the output, and quickly too. Compare and contrast the GFS 12z op run with the two from earlier today, for instance.

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I'm sorry this is just bollox plenty of data today has shown snow for the south over the next week or so. It's definitely marginal but to say its all rain is wrong.

 

I’m sorry this is just bollocks, plenty of data today has shown rain and sleet for the south over the next week or so. It’s definitely marginal but to say it’s all snow is wrong. 

 

Fixed it for you 

 

 

ARPEGE suggesting mostly rain for the south Tue/Wed but chance of snow on Friday morning now.

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The trend is key here rather than the eventual conclusion into FI. It's clear to me (at least) that there's an evolving trend for a) lows tracking more south each model run, and b) heights rising to the N in that T+144 to T+168 period. More runs will be the test of whether the trend continues.

To my untrained eye also had the same thought. The shift in low pressure west to east to the south of us, creating an increase and push westwards of high pressure to the north and east of us.

 

I’m sorry this is just bollocks, plenty of data today has shown rain and sleet for the south over the next week or so. It’s definitely marginal but to say it’s all snow is wrong. 

 

Fixed it for you 

 

 

 

Well we are all going to have to wait and see aren't we but to write off any snow for the south is insanity.

 

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Well we are all going to have to wait and see aren't we but to write off any snow for the south is insanity.

 

we haven’t Ally- read WM’s original post that I was referring to. It’s going to be marginal IMO- but hey that can often bring the south it’s biggest snowfalls. 

Lets hope it upgrades for everyone 

ARPEGE suggesting mostly rain for the south Tue/Wed but chance of snow on Friday morning now.

 

I’d say more interesting than guaranteed snow - who knows what will fall - timing could be everything. Someone will be happy somewhere with an unexpected snowfall. I personally don’t care just glad there is a chance!!

 

we haven’t Ally- read WM’s original post that I was referring to. It’s going to be marginal IMO- but hey that can often bring the south it’s biggest snowfalls. 

Lets hope it upgrades for everyone 

 

This I can agree with. 

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Very large scatter in the ECM ensembles this evening, plenty of options moving forward. I think I will take each day at a time and keep on looking for trends. The GEFS out in far FI have so many options as well. Mystery time - what’s new!!
Martin

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