The Weather Outlook

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SJV
27 January 2019 19:21:44

 

absolutely bang on the money WM, latest data suggests a lot of rain and perhaps sleet for many southern areas. Let’s hope we get an upgrade in the next 24 hours or there will be a lot of disappointment 

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 

We need to see what the hi-res models show with regards to precipitation next week before being in any way confident as to what falls from the sky (even then these systems look likely to be nowcast events).

There's more to it than just upper air temperature, as I'm sure you know.

LeedsLad123
27 January 2019 19:30:00

🤮🤮🤮🤮
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Looks like a settled and dry chart. Spring is flexing its muscles.  🌞🌸

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
27 January 2019 19:32:29

 

absolutely bang on the money WM, latest data suggests a lot of rain and perhaps sleet for many southern areas. Let’s hope we get an upgrade in the next 24 hours or there will be a lot of disappointment 

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 

 

I'm sorry this is just bollox plenty of data today has shown snow for the south over the next week or so. It's definitely marginal but to say its all rain is wrong.

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
David M Porter
27 January 2019 19:33:21

 

Looks like a settled and dry chart. Spring is flexing its muscles.  🌞🌸

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

Hmmm, I wouldn't go betting my life savings on that.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

jhall
27 January 2019 19:39:27

 

Hmmm, I wouldn't go betting my life savings on that.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Nor would I. But both the ECM and GFS do seem to be keen on pressure rising over Iberia as we reach T+240 or beyond.

Cranleigh, Surrey
White Meadows
27 January 2019 19:44:40

 

 

I'm sorry this is just bollox plenty of data today has shown snow for the south over the next week or so. It's definitely marginal but to say its all rain is wrong.

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Not all rain, some sleet and slushy wet snow mixed in. I doubt much we’ll settle at low levels. To say this thread is not for discussing a perfectly plausible outcome shown in the output then reprimand others for doing so in a manner that apprarently goes against their favoured option is rather hypercritical ☹️

David M Porter
27 January 2019 19:45:21

 

Nor would I. But both the ECM and GFS do seem to be keen on pressure rising over Iberia as we reach T+240 or beyond.

Originally Posted by: jhall 

That's true. In saying that though, the period for a week or more ahead IMO at the moment is even more open to question that it would be normally. There has been a great deal of uncertainty in recent days about the exact development during the coming week and if what happens only a few days ahead is in some doubt, then it goes without saying that development 7-10 days & more ahead will be even more shrouded in uncertainty than would normally be the case.

It striked me that we are in one of those situations where a lot could change in the output, and quickly too. Compare and contrast the GFS 12z op run with the two from earlier today, for instance.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

JACKO4EVER
27 January 2019 19:48:07

 

 

I'm sorry this is just bollox plenty of data today has shown snow for the south over the next week or so. It's definitely marginal but to say its all rain is wrong.

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

I’m sorry this is just bollocks, plenty of data today has shown rain and sleet for the south over the next week or so. It’s definitely marginal but to say it’s all snow is wrong. 

 

Fixed it for you 

 

 

Rob K
27 January 2019 19:50:06
ARPEGE suggesting mostly rain for the south Tue/Wed but chance of snow on Friday morning now.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Phil G
27 January 2019 19:53:02

The trend is key here rather than the eventual conclusion into FI. It's clear to me (at least) that there's an evolving trend for a) lows tracking more south each model run, and b) heights rising to the N in that T+144 to T+168 period. More runs will be the test of whether the trend continues.

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

To my untrained eye also had the same thought. The shift in low pressure west to east to the south of us, creating an increase and push westwards of high pressure to the north and east of us.

Ally Pally Snowman
27 January 2019 19:54:18

 

I’m sorry this is just bollocks, plenty of data today has shown rain and sleet for the south over the next week or so. It’s definitely marginal but to say it’s all snow is wrong. 

 

Fixed it for you 

 

 

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 

 

Well we are all going to have to wait and see aren't we but to write off any snow for the south is insanity.

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
JACKO4EVER
27 January 2019 19:58:41

 

 

Well we are all going to have to wait and see aren't we but to write off any snow for the south is insanity.

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

we haven’t Ally- read WM’s original post that I was referring to. It’s going to be marginal IMO- but hey that can often bring the south it’s biggest snowfalls. 

Lets hope it upgrades for everyone 

ballamar
27 January 2019 20:02:06

ARPEGE suggesting mostly rain for the south Tue/Wed but chance of snow on Friday morning now.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

 

I’d say more interesting than guaranteed snow - who knows what will fall - timing could be everything. Someone will be happy somewhere with an unexpected snowfall. I personally don’t care just glad there is a chance!!

Ally Pally Snowman
27 January 2019 20:05:01

 

we haven’t Ally- read WM’s original post that I was referring to. It’s going to be marginal IMO- but hey that can often bring the south it’s biggest snowfalls. 

Lets hope it upgrades for everyone 

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 

 

This I can agree with. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
marting
27 January 2019 20:21:57
Very large scatter in the ECM ensembles this evening, plenty of options moving forward. I think I will take each day at a time and keep on looking for trends. The GEFS out in far FI have so many options as well. Mystery time - what’s new!!

Martin

Martin

Greasby, Wirral.

DPower
27 January 2019 20:35:16

Met becoming even more bullish with very cold weather more likely than not affecting the UK by mid month and continuing there after. Either that or they waste time tlking in their 16 to 30 dayer about the least likely scenario.

Of course the Met can be wrong ( their 16 to 15 dayers have been way off the mark so far this winter) but with back ground signals (SSW downwelling) more recent h500 model output things are beginning to change rapidly.

After the front and snow clears through on Wednesday I think it fairly safe to assume we will see further changes to the next incoming low albeit slightly weaker perhaps and more southerly tradjectory with it then undercutting. Siberian high and fridged cold moving west with heights building to our north and north east.The trend is our friend. If I was the one who had written the Mets 30 dayer I would be feeling very confident with regard to the outlook.

Polar Low
27 January 2019 20:36:53

hmmm has a sister low at t60 that slows things up that might be enough for the s/e bench marks look ok

Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

Weather type GFS We 30.01.2019 00 UTC

White Meadows
27 January 2019 20:42:20
To be clear, I personally would love a snow day this week and ‘work’ from home.

Anything that prevents me from a road commute is my friend.

David M Porter
27 January 2019 20:47:17

Met becoming even more bullish with very cold weather more likely than not affecting the UK by mid month and continuing there after. Either that or they waste time tlking in their 16 to 30 dayer about the least likely scenario.

Of course the Met can be wrong ( their 16 to 15 dayers have been way off the mark so far this winter) but with back ground signals (SSW downwelling) more recent h500 model output things are beginning to change rapidly.

After the front and snow clears through on Wednesday I think it fairly safe to assume we will see further changes to the next incoming low albeit slightly weaker perhaps and more southerly tradjectory with it then undercutting. Siberian high and fridged cold moving west with heights building to our north and north east.The trend is our friend. If I was the one who had written the Mets 30 dayer I would be feeling very confident with regard to the outlook.

Originally Posted by: DPower 

That has been the case up to a point. However, as Michael mentioned earlier in this thread and as I said in the media thread this afternoon, they weren't far, if at all, off the mark with their prediction from around Xmas/New Year of a change to generally colder conditions from mid-January onwards. Since mid-January in my location, the only days that I would defninitely describe as being mild here were Friday and Saturday just gone.

Had the MetO's forecast of colder weather taking hold in the middle of this month failed to materialise, I would be rather less confident in their forecast for February. I'm not saying that they will definitely be proved correct again here, but from looking at the model output at the moment I see no indication of a major pressure rise to our SE in the reliable/semi-reliable timeframe.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Whether Idle
27 January 2019 20:56:05

Very large scatter in the ECM ensembles this evening, plenty of options moving forward. I think I will take each day at a time and keep on looking for trends. The GEFS out in far FI have so many options as well. Mystery time - what’s new!!
Martin

Originally Posted by: marting 

Can you post them?

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Polar Low
27 January 2019 21:05:27

Chaos at 60 David with that energy so would not bother looking any further

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=60

 

 

That has been the case up to a point. However, as Michael mentioned earlier in this thread and as I said in the media thread this afternoon, they weren't far, if at all, off the mark with their prediction from around Xmas/New Year of a change to generally colder conditions from mid-January onwards. Since mid-January in my location, the only days that I would defninitely describe as being mild here were Friday and Saturday just gone.

Had the MetO's forecast of colder weather taking hold in the middle of this month failed to materialise, I would be rather less confident in their forecast for February. I'm not saying that they will definitely be proved correct again here, but from looking at the model output at the moment I see no indication of a major pressure rise to our SE in the reliable/semi-reliable timeframe.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

SJV
27 January 2019 21:13:57

 

That has been the case up to a point. However, as Michael mentioned earlier in this thread and as I said in the media thread this afternoon, they weren't far, if at all, off the mark with their prediction from around Xmas/New Year of a change to generally colder conditions from mid-January onwards. Since mid-January in my location, the only days that I would defninitely describe as being mild here were Friday and Saturday just gone.

Had the MetO's forecast of colder weather taking hold in the middle of this month failed to materialise, I would be rather less confident in their forecast for February. I'm not saying that they will definitely be proved correct again here, but from looking at the model output at the moment I see no indication of a major pressure rise to our SE in the reliable/semi-reliable timeframe.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

 Yes it is often the case that folk forget the times they are correct, broadly speaking, as we expect them to be.

Meanwhile, ICON 18z adjusts the wintry precip for Tuesday a little further north, compared with the 12z/15z.

Brian Gaze
27 January 2019 21:17:14

ICON 18z still keen on a mainly snow event in southern and central areas on Tuesday night.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/icon.aspx?run=18&charthour=54&chartname=ukpreciptype&chartregion=uk&charttag=Precip%20type

 

 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

SJV
27 January 2019 21:18:03

 

sure thing brother- 

it will turn light in the mornings and dark at night,  🤗

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 

Even the Met disagree on that one! (excellent typo spotted by Liam Dutton earlier today )

Polar Low
27 January 2019 21:24:28

very nice indeed im looking forward to this week Brian lots of chances

Chart image

 

 

ICON 18z still keen on a mainly snow event in southern and central areas on Tuesday night.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/icon.aspx?run=18&charthour=54&chartname=ukpreciptype&chartregion=uk&charttag=Precip%20type

 

 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

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