The Weather Outlook

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Brian Gaze
27 January 2019 16:29:03

CMC not really interested in Tuesday.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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SJV
27 January 2019 16:30:41
Definite blocked signal emerging on the GFS 12z.
doctormog
27 January 2019 16:37:38

Definite blocked signal emerging on the GFS 12z.

Originally Posted by: SJV 

Can’t see it myself   http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_219_1.png 

 


Gandalf The White
27 January 2019 16:40:37

 

My novice eyes are struggling to understand this setup, with the core of the lp running just to the south of me and 850's ~ -7 Tuesday night into Wednesday. In your opinion do you think I'm in with a shot of seeing some of the white stuff? Even if it's a brief affair.

I know it's a bit of an IMBY post, but these type of setups have delivered the goods for my locale in the past.

Originally Posted by: hobensotwo 

There's a warm sector in the system: if you look at the T+48 850hPa chart you can see it.  That means you won't get -7c 850s as the LP passes you but the cold wraps around behind the centre.  The issue is how much precipitation is left once the main band has moved through.


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



SJV
27 January 2019 16:40:42

 

Can’t see it myself   http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_219_1.png 

 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

 Stark contrast to the 6z that's for sure. Only one run of course but a definite step in the right direction.

Brian Gaze
27 January 2019 16:43:59

Arpege 12z also looking very messy on Tues.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arpege.aspx?run=12&charthour=54&chartname=ukpreciptype&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=Precip%20type

 Edit: 

ICON 12z is more promising.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/icon.aspx?run=12&charthour=54&chartname=ukpreciptype&chartregion=uk&charttag=Precip%20type

 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

doctormog
27 January 2019 16:49:43

 

 Stark contrast to the 6z that's for sure. Only one run of course but a definite step in the right direction.

Originally Posted by: SJV 

In isolation I would almost discount it but both the UKMO and ICON 12z have shifted in that direction too. (And there’s always that Met Office outlook). If will be interesting to see if this is the start of a trend. Based on synoptics I’m not sure I would expect to see any significant on the GEFS 1z ensemble data even if that were the case. It wil be interesting to see if the ECM or GFSP toy with idea too.


tallyho_83
27 January 2019 16:57:04

Definite blocked signal emerging on the GFS 12z.

Originally Posted by: SJV 

 

Really? with temps potentially in mid teens:

 

GEM:


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)


Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Chunky Pea
27 January 2019 16:58:14

99hrs looks a bit mad for me on that run:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/icon/12_99_ukpreciptype.png?cb=2701201912

I honestly hope this does not happen. The sadist in me now wants to see this winter being the first ever not to record falling or lying snow. This is what this winter has made me become. 


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

SJV
27 January 2019 17:00:04

 

 

Really? with temps potentially in mid teens:

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

My post referred to these sorts of charts...

It all gets eroded rather quickly I grant you, but the general pattern evolving in the mid-term on the 12z is an encouraging one, regardless of the very end of FI.

SJV
27 January 2019 17:01:19

 

GEM:

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

That GEM charts is wildly different to the GFS you also posted (at t+240) 

doctormog
27 January 2019 17:01:27

 

 

Really? with temps potentially in mid teens:

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

You have done it again Sean and picked one chart at over 300hr out. Yes, in the high resolution section of the run (up to 240hr) the blocking signs are blatantly obvious. They are then lost as the model shifts to its default progressive pattern but tries to maintain the high pressure theme. Watch the trend to see if it develops or is a one off. And please please please do not post a GFS 18z op run chart later for the 11th of February pointing out that it is different to the 12z GFS op for the 11th of February!


picturesareme
27 January 2019 17:04:52

Rught from the get go the arpege is accurate with the location and percipitation type that has been falling over northeast England this afternoon.. icon is way off the mark already. 

tallyho_83
27 January 2019 17:05:57

Yes from around the 200z mark the HP from around 4th Feb looks stronger each run esp around Greenland:

00z run - 1030mb over Greenland

06z - 1040mb over Greenland

12z run - latest, 1050mb over Greenland:

18z? 1060mb? Shame FI ruins the block though! bUT AN UPGRADE In short to medium range!


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)


Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
27 January 2019 17:07:53

.

Hmm, if we get the 524 dam line over the M4 area and London too, and track that PV Low on Thursday January 31st, the cold air could if we are lucky hold on over the said area and the potential is there if the Low tracks ESE from SW UK- well there could be temperatures in this area 850's of -5 to -8, and ground temperatures could be about 2 or 3 degrees and it could be snowmageddon Thursday night and on Friday to Saturday AM.

Will it or won't it.

On Tuesday night of 29th January and Wednesday January 30th, Cyclonic Cold NW winds or WNW flow with Surface temperatures for said area being at about minimum -2 and maximum of 3 degrees C, there could be shower MCS trofs along with Cyclonic Low Pressure and sleet to snow showers could also occur and happen.

.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.

Robertski
27 January 2019 17:08:00

 

 

Really? with temps potentially in mid teens:

 

GEM:

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

 

F1, not to be taken seriously.

tallyho_83
27 January 2019 17:12:47

 

 

F1, not to be taken seriously.

Originally Posted by: Robertski 

 

Yes I know - i missed the short to medium term as I am more keen to see the FI and how that pans out as I haven't got time to look at each and every individual chart every 3 to 6 hours between now and 384 but now having looking at the short to medium term GFS op it looks like an upgrade with some blocking trying to get going from around the 2nd and 3rd of Feb. I wonder what the ECM WILL have to offer and if it will support this?


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)


Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Brian Gaze
27 January 2019 17:12:49

Only one run, but it would put the cat among the pigeons if it verified! 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=12&charthour=360&chartname=mslp850&chartregion=na&charttag=MSLP%20850hPa%20C


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Gavin D
27 January 2019 17:16:51

UKMO precip charts now updated

Tuesday and into Wednesday

us_model-en-330-9_modgbr_2019012712_54_18_83.thumb.png.96d8efb5597b8d2d1e9112f70e3fdb60.pngus_model-en-330-9_modgbr_2019012712_60_18_83.thumb.png.f819f7d483efe4efa156028f7c833cb6.pngus_model-en-330-9_modgbr_2019012712_66_18_83.thumb.png.077b0a2a930cf6bd6261a22a827cd0dc.png

us_model-en-330-9_modgbr_2019012712_72_18_83.thumb.png.d3f4c0e4b962ed0c3463dee62d08dcf5.pngus_model-en-330-9_modgbr_2019012712_78_18_83.thumb.png.e1b3c195e731fc65786b0f4d7dc62fef.png

Thursday & Friday

us_model-en-330-9_modgbr_2019012712_96_18_83.thumb.png.2ae8435c85277bded5229a1e95bfc68d.pngus_model-en-330-9_modgbr_2019012712_114_18_83.thumb.png.2d86c38bc9babcf14758fe7fae846745.pngus_model-en-330-9_modgbr_2019012712_126_18_83.thumb.png.daf7d2d9948ff605a8ddea233823ed57.png

Gavin D
27 January 2019 17:18:00

 

 

F1, not to be taken seriously.

Originally Posted by: Robertski 

 

Spring will be racing in with those charts

 

tallyho_83
27 January 2019 17:20:06

Only one run, but it would put the cat among the pigeons if it verified! 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=12&charthour=360&chartname=mslp850&chartregion=na&charttag=MSLP%20850hPa%20C

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

They are trending very mild now in the far reaches of the runs - seems to be fairly consistent now! Be interesting where the Op run will sit in amongst it';s ensembles! 


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)


Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

marco 79
27 January 2019 17:20:32

Only one run, but it would put the cat among the pigeons if it verified! 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=12&charthour=360&chartname=mslp850&chartregion=na&charttag=MSLP%20850hPa%20C

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

 

Feb 98.....lovely month....


Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
SJV
27 January 2019 17:21:09

 

 

Yes I know - i missed the short to medium term as I am more keen to see the FI and how that pans out as I haven't got time to look at each and every individual chart every 3 to 6 hours between now and 384 but now having looking at the short to medium term GFS op it looks like an upgrade with some blocking trying to get going from around the 2nd and 3rd of Feb. I wonder what the ECM WILL have to offer and if it will support this?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

If you've only got time for a few charts you're better off checking the hi-res output, Tally 

Otherwise you'll end up like Brian, posting mild temperatures at t+360 

doctormog
27 January 2019 17:30:45

The GFSP is also encouraging (and still cold) out at day 7 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPARAEU12_174_1.png


tallyho_83
27 January 2019 17:32:18

 

If you've only got time for a few charts you're better off checking the hi-res output, Tally 

Otherwise you'll end up like Brian, posting mild temperatures at t+360 

Originally Posted by: SJV 

I have plenty of time but when I don't ill just scan through them and when I saw your post saying the GFS has a definite blocking pattern and then looked at the 12z FI and saw temperatures of 12 or +15c over many parts of the country with a long fetched southerly westerly wind bringing temps of some (5c to 7c above the monthly average for Feb!) and to see the GEM following the GFS Op pattern.. I was quite surprised! I didn't know you were referring to the medium range stages of the GFS OP run re blocked!  I thought what block? yes a block but we are on the milder or warm side of the block.

 


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)


Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

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