It is indeed!

We've a cold week coming up with potential for snow in many places.

Signs thereafter of the models wanting to build heights to our north. Happy days 

Mild side of the block?

The earlier the spring can arrive the better.

Wouldn't that be the pits!

Euro 4 updated, shows the LP further North aka UKMO 

Yes on this basis my personal preference is for the low to bugger off towards Biscay and France. 

The 12z runs look a bit better in this respect. 

No, I mean't in deep in FI of the Op 12z run we would be on the milder side of the block and substantially so!

Meanwhile the 12z ensemble chart has come out and shows the Op run going off at one - a very mild outlier:

We have some cross model agreement @ 144:

ICON:

GFS PARA:

GFS OP:

GFS Control:

UKMO:

ECM:

If it's any consolation there's still likely to be a decent amount of cold rain (as well as some snow hopefully) on offer for us Southerners if it doesn't bugger off too far south, which means we can be pretend Northerners for the day whilst you stay dry and sunny

Ignoring the specifics up to T240 or so the 12z GFS is really rather interesting, with various snow opportunities from North to South, albeit never overly cold for most (Highland Scotland would no doubt be cold throughout!). After this point the nascent high level HP drains away amusingly quickly, which may just be an artefact of the lower resolution as Doc mentions.

Will have a look through the postage stamps at some point just to see if the FI blocking signal is still there and where the GFS has pinned the donkey tail this time

Given the OP run has snow (or sleet I guess) for me next Saturday as well as wintry precip for the North West I suspect the mild end to the week that was being floated a day or two back is very definitely under threat.

This meme sums it up 

Cold and then mixed sums up GEFS 12z.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=london&charthour=06&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM)

A chilly and messy picture at 72hr on the ECM 12z 

Last week was total chaos here with just 6cm so LA shpuld be prepared.

Still no guarantee until we see the track of the lie tomorrow night 

ECM developing nicely

ECM T120 showing a messy picture for the far south. T144 looks better with colder uppers nationwide.

Even with lower 850s at t+144, thicknesses look in the high side for many in south east quadrant.

Some very marginal uppers throughout for most south of the M4
If it’s lashing cold rain you like with a bit of slush mixed in then this week should be a dream come true.
Show me some proper blocking and I’ll start getting interested, at the moment the fun is restricted to northern areas & parts of Wales.
Met office yellow area waaayyyyyy too far south given most of the output available today.

It'll be interesting to see what the HIRLAM and Euro4 hi-res show for Tuesday and also Thursday when they come into range soon.

ouch!

Ouch indeed:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

The trend is key here rather than the eventual conclusion into FI. It's clear to me (at least) that there's an evolving trend for a) lows tracking more south each model run, and b) heights rising to the N in that T+144 to T+168 period. More runs will be the test of whether the trend continues.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

You don't like cold and frosty weather

That's vaguely cold upper air under slack conditions = frost/fog fest other than the far North, which is warmer.

It's also materially different to it's 00z solution and is FI in a wildly fluctuating pattern.

But other than that, yarp, it's terrible

The current output across the various models shows everything from a wintry mixture through to several hours of snow.  This will change from run to run but to dismiss it now as you are doing is not based on the model output, which is what this thread is supposed to be about.

absolutely bang on the money WM, latest data suggests a lot of rain and perhaps sleet for many southern areas. Let’s hope we get an upgrade in the next 24 hours or there will be a lot of disappointment