The Weather Outlook

Remove ads from site

ballamar
27 January 2019 14:04:35

Totally agree with you Jacko. Met Office are going to have to gradually climb down from the fanatasy cold tree soon.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

I would put more faith in what their models are probably showing and not what people who want a big high five for saying I told you so. But if you have access to what they can see then fair play

Chunky Pea
27 January 2019 14:16:27

 

I would put more faith in what their models are probably showing and not what people who want a big high five for saying I told you so. But if you have access to what they can see then fair play

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

They may have nicer, cleaner looking charts available to them, but I'm not sure if they necessarily have much more info on them than we the public do. I guess it would be more matter of how such available information is interpreted by Met Services and enthusiasts like us. We tend to base our moods on what a current run shows, while Meteorologists tend to give a more 'ensemblonic' (if that makes sense) interpretation of them in their forecasts. 

Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

SJV
27 January 2019 14:23:36

 

I would put more faith in what their models are probably showing and not what people who want a big high five for saying I told you so. But if you have access to what they can see then fair play

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

Given the models do not go as far out as the Met Office extended outlook I am often quite amused by those thinking the Met Office will backtrack in their 30-dayer.

Clearly they are seeing something we cannot at the moment. Whether the output falls into line over the coming week or two remains to be seen. Had we not had such a fantastic virtual winter we'd be getting excited by their extended outlook. Instead we've got the bitters out.

It's simple when you cut all emotion out of it. The outlook for the rest of our winter currently favours cold with a chance of snow. That should be good enough.

Chiltern Blizzard
27 January 2019 14:30:19
Surely the time to call out the Met Office is mid-Feb should it turn out like GFS.... not before! Anyone with any experience of model watching should know not to place faith in the t+300+ charts, let alone call out using them to call out the MetO- madness!
Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Chiltern Blizzard
27 January 2019 14:32:46

Totally agree with you Jacko. Met Office are going to have to gradually climb down from the fanatasy cold tree soon.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Why? Because the GFS +384 chart isn’t fantasy?!?  Bizarre logic.

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
JACKO4EVER
27 January 2019 14:44:52

 

But of course you pair have access to much more information than the met office eh 

Originally Posted by: Weathermac 

no we just have the capability of reading charts better than trolls 

Solar Cycles
27 January 2019 14:55:49
Looking grim IMBY for anything worthwhile to talk about this coming week, corrections for the low coming in appear to be taking it too far south leaving my locale in the usual dreary cold but cloudy sort of set up. I think Tuesday will be the best bet for those in the NW, especially those in the south of the region. All in all it could be a bit of a nonevent for many north of the Midlands bar central and northern Scotland I’m afraid.
ballamar
27 January 2019 15:12:59

 

no we just have the capability of reading charts better than trolls 

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 

 

really?? So are you writing off any cold and snow before end of Feb. Hats off if you are and it happens

Robertski
27 January 2019 15:13:48

Looking grim IMBY for anything worthwhile to talk about this coming week, corrections for the low coming in appear to be taking it too far south leaving my locale in the usual dreary cold but cloudy sort of set up. I think Tuesday will be the best bet for those in the NW, especially those in the south of the region. All in all it could be a bit of a nonevent for many north of the Midlands bar central and northern Scotland I’m afraid.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

 

The warnings for snow Tuesday into Wednesday in High Wycombe have intensified and so have the snow symbols in the forecast. Will be interesting to see how this pans out.

kmoorman
27 January 2019 15:24:06

 

 

The warnings for snow Tuesday into Wednesday in High Wycombe have intensified and so have the snow symbols in the forecast. Will be interesting to see how this pans out.

Originally Posted by: Robertski 

 

Whereas down here, we are outside of the area where people are being warned about yellow snow. 

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)

Work: Canary Wharf, London

Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968

Retron
27 January 2019 15:24:33

I would put more faith in what their models are probably showing and not what people who want a big high five for saying I told you so. But if you have access to what they can see then fair play

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

That'd be GLOSEA - along with the full ECM-46, which is what's been driving the colder 15-30 day outlook for seemingly ages now. We can see a bit of the ECM-46 for free (via Iceland's Met Office - http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2019/01/24/00/ ), you can see a bit more if you pay for it (weather.us etc), but we can't see anywhere near the full picture.

They also have tools such as Decider, which acts as an ensemble of ensembles.

If push comes to shove, I'd always side with the Met Office on their long-ranger versus what we see on the mostly 15-day models we have access to.

no we just have the capability of reading charts better than trolls 

JACKO4EVER wrote:

Go on then, let's have your interpretation of those EC-46 anomaly charts. I'm sure we're all dying to know what you make of them!

 

 

Leysdown, north Kent
Robertski
27 January 2019 15:29:13

 

That'd be GLOSEA - along with the full ECM-46, which is what's been driving the colder 15-30 day outlook for seemingly ages now. We can see a bit of the ECM-46 for free (via Iceland's Met Office - http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2019/01/24/00/ ), you can see a bit more if you pay for it (weather.us etc), but we can't see anywhere near the full picture.

They also have tools such as Decider, which acts as an ensemble of ensembles.

If push comes to shove, I'd always side with the Met Office on their long-ranger versus what we see on the mostly 15-day models we have access to.

 

Go on then, let's have your interpretation of those EC-46 anomaly charts. I'm sure we're all dying to know what you make of them!

 

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Solar Cycles
27 January 2019 15:31:55

 

 

The warnings for snow Tuesday into Wednesday in High Wycombe have intensified and so have the snow symbols in the forecast. Will be interesting to see how this pans out.

Originally Posted by: Robertski 

Lol, some for sure are going to hit the jackpot but as ever in the U.K. they'll be more losers than winners. 😎

Gooner
27 January 2019 15:36:28

 

That'd be GLOSEA - along with the full ECM-46, which is what's been driving the colder 15-30 day outlook for seemingly ages now. We can see a bit of the ECM-46 for free (via Iceland's Met Office - http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2019/01/24/00/ ), you can see a bit more if you pay for it (weather.us etc), but we can't see anywhere near the full picture.

They also have tools such as Decider, which acts as an ensemble of ensembles.

If push comes to shove, I'd always side with the Met Office on their long-ranger versus what we see on the mostly 15-day models we have access to.

 

Go on then, let's have your interpretation of those EC-46 anomaly charts. I'm sure we're all dying to know what you make of them!

 

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Yeahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh go on Jacko 

It amazes me how people on TWO and NW think they see as much as the Met and read charts just as well...……………….dream on

Like Darren I'd back the Met all the time , the fact that it still says cold you have to give credit to that , if they change it tomorrow or the day after then fair enough , but currently they are still thinking it will go cold or colder than what we are having 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



David M Porter
27 January 2019 15:46:53

Well to be fair to the Met Office the spotted the change which happened midmonth at the beginning of the month and the current outlook suggests a low probability of cold or very cold E/NEly. That by default suggests that there is a high probability that there will NOT be very bold E/NEly winds.

The 06z output remains generally cold until FI, moreso in the north with a wintry mix of weather which seems to tie in with the 5-16 outlook.

Beyond then there is a signal for milder/less cold conditions which may or may not come to fruition and yes that is at odds with the current 16-30 day outlook.

Only time will tell and the time for post mortums is surely after the death of winter not just on its diagnosis?

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Good post, Michael.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Gooner
27 January 2019 15:53:47

UKMO @120

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Gandalf The White
27 January 2019 15:59:48

UKMO still keeping Tuesday's LP track around the Channel unlike some of the other output that sends a shallower feature towards Biscay.

If this is correct it explains the warnings of heavy snow in places - that's a cold enough set-up.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Devonian
27 January 2019 16:04:57

The temperature at a few stations in N Finland is well below -30C, much of N Scandinavia is below -20C. That cold doesn't look like being eroded by Atlantic air and might, I speculate, form the basis of an tappable air mass.

 

Whether Idle
27 January 2019 16:14:50

UKMO still keeping Tuesday's LP track around the Channel unlike some of the other output that sends a shallower feature towards Biscay.

If this is correct it explains the warnings of heavy snow in places - that's a cold enough set-up.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Yes - edit MOST the other output Ive seen GFS, Arpege, ICON, has it as you say, more southerly and shallow.  Will be interesting come 24 hours as to whether there is any consensus, though the track may not be pinned down til the Tuesday 0zs.

Just found the 6z JMA - similar idea to 12z UKM:

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
hobensotwo
27 January 2019 16:15:57

UKMO still keeping Tuesday's LP track around the Channel unlike some of the other output that sends a shallower feature towards Biscay.

If this is correct it explains the warnings of heavy snow in places - that's a cold enough set-up.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

My novice eyes are struggling to understand this setup, with the core of the lp running just to the south of me and 850's ~ -7 Tuesday night into Wednesday. In your opinion do you think I'm in with a shot of seeing some of the white stuff? Even if it's a brief affair.

I know it's a bit of an IMBY post, but these type of setups have delivered the goods for my locale in the past.

Shropshire
27 January 2019 16:21:14

Well to be fair to the Met Office the spotted the change which happened midmonth at the beginning of the month and the current outlook suggests a low probability of cold or very cold E/NEly. That by default suggests that there is a high probability that there will NOT be very bold E/NEly winds.

The 06z output remains generally cold until FI, moreso in the north with a wintry mix of weather which seems to tie in with the 5-16 outlook.

Beyond then there is a signal for milder/less cold conditions which may or may not come to fruition and yes that is at odds with the current 16-30 day outlook.

Only time will tell and the time for post mortums is surely after the death of winter not just on its diagnosis?

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

The recent runs of High pressure over Europe and a weakened PV are actually consistent with a trop response to the SSW where the HLB ends up on the other side of the globe. 

I'm not giving up on an easterly yet but the METO have been jam tomorrow with this for sometime and the NWP that we see has led the way.

 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
doctormog
27 January 2019 16:23:10
I have to say the changes in the medium term of the 12z model output are very positive for cold weather fans and perhapsa little less so for critics of the Met Office.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_171_1.png 

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Shropshire
27 January 2019 16:24:53

Looking grim IMBY for anything worthwhile to talk about this coming week, corrections for the low coming in appear to be taking it too far south leaving my locale in the usual dreary cold but cloudy sort of set up. I think Tuesday will be the best bet for those in the NW, especially those in the south of the region. All in all it could be a bit of a nonevent for many north of the Midlands bar central and northern Scotland I’m afraid.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Yes everything trending further South as is often the case - the frustration is that the Low developing Tuesday will kill off the shower activity that would have occured in the NW and North Mids.

My sweetspot for the biggest snow depths England wise taking both events together is a triangle of Coventry-Northampton-Oxford.

 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
JACKO4EVER
27 January 2019 16:25:41

 

Yeahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh go on Jacko 

It amazes me how people on TWO and NW think they see as much as the Met and read charts just as well...……………….dream on

Like Darren I'd back the Met all the time , the fact that it still says cold you have to give credit to that , if they change it tomorrow or the day after then fair enough , but currently they are still thinking it will go cold or colder than what we are having 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

sure thing brother- 

it will turn light in the mornings and dark and night, and there could well be more Jam tomorrow 🤗

ballamar
27 January 2019 16:26:19
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_180_1.png 

If only there was very cold potential in GFS by a few accounts it’s gonna be mild

Remove ads from site