It's not just the GFS though David. Have you seen the ECM 0z. That ain't showing anything from the east or Northeast!!
I take your point Kieren. What I would add is that neither model covers the period from now until late February which the entirety of the MetO's forecasts go out to and GFS only goes as far ahead as the next fortnight. That only takes us to 11/12th February or around then. As everyone who follows the models regularly must know, anything for more than a week ahead is very much open to change even under normal circumstances and far-off GFS FI can certainly never be relied upon.
Look at the three GFSop runs today as an example of how much they can and do change from one run to the next. For all GFS 12z is poor for cold, deep FI in the previous two runs today looked a bit more prosmising although neither delivered a deep freeze.
In short, all I am saying is don't discount the MetO yet. They were right about a change to colder weather in the middle of this month and they were likewise proved correct about the Beast at the end of last February at a time when some of us were beginning to have doubts.
Lenzie, Glasgow
"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022