Are the figures for Reading definitely correct? It's currently got a score even lower than Brighton, and way lower than London.

Just taken a look. It is correct in the sense that:

1) The GEFS data downloaded fully 
2) The grid point is set correctly for the Reading area
3) The daily snow row values are summed correctly

 

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With a round or two of marginal slop over the new few days and then settling into what looks like a Bartlett high-type scenario thereafter, I've now thrown the towel in with regards to hoping for any sustained cold snowy spells for the rest of the winter.

Wintry weather in March or April is about as welcome as a fart in a lift, as that's when I start properly yearning for the first bit of actual spring-like warmth.

What saved this winter from being "memorably terrible" is how I did well in terms of cool sunny dry weather, such as today, and there has been little in the way of real storminess.

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ICON 12z's Having A Moment - a 920mb low in the Atlantic it looks like, hard to tell as all the text and isobars are merging as one.

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or C). No body knows for certain but a hefty moderation to the long term forecast is due soon.

absolutely, something has to give soon, and with dare I say the odd Bartlet/ zonal scenario in the mix it’s definitely a crazy spread. 

ICON 12z's Having A Moment - a 920mb low in the Atlantic it looks like, hard to tell as all the text and isobars are merging as one.

Not to mention a 1,060mb high pressure over northern Russia....

The LP isn't going anywhere - certainly not coming east

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absolutely, something has to give soon, and with dare I say the odd Bartlet/ zonal scenario in the mix it’s definitely a crazy spread. 

 

how on earth can you see a Bartlett high - charts don’t go far enough to confirm something which can only really be confirmed after a period of time!!

 

 

how on earth can you see a Bartlett high - charts don’t go far enough to confirm something which can only really be confirmed after a period of time!!

Not to mention that a Bartlett high doesn't describe a high pressure cell; it describes a synoptic pattern where high pressure cells move east across the Atlantic into mainland Europe with the jetstream running west-east around the latitude of Iceland.

I've not seen that modelled in any of the output this entire winter.

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You're doing what I use to do and take one run of one model as Gospel!

Mind you the GFS 0p run is very bullish about it turning milder!! But doesn't mean it will definitely verify? Only a day or so ago it was pulling in a ranging easterly - you may remember my posts previously and the models at FI kept flip flopping. I was actually watching Gav's weather videos and he actually said having a warm southerly or HP to the south could be a sign that things may turn colder a week after that - because sometimes the HP to our south will push northwards and before it does that it will drag up milder or warm air but the benefits of that is that we will eventually see the HLB over Greenland or Iceland - which is what we have all been waiting for ha!

But we really need to get on with this and soon because it's Feb in a few days time. I really don't want snow in March. 

Thank goodness for this potential snow on Tuesday evening for the south!!

 

Indeed because again the GFS 12z is looking like milder for early-mid February. It's not a case of me looking at one operational but trends. There is nothing in the models that suggests anything particularly Easterly or severe in February. Quite the opposite in fact. I am only commenting on the models as they are showing, I am absolutely NOT trying to wind anybody up. 

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Well there will be plenty of gnashing of teeth and WIO threads after the GFS 12z op no doubt.

It's only 1 run. Lets see where it sits in the GEFS first.

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Well there will be plenty of gnashing of teeth and WIO threads after the GFS 12z op no doubt.

It's only 1 run. Lets see where it sits in the GEFS first.

It's a trend that is growing as I said yesterday. I really don't want to annoy people but if I'm commenting on the models, the writing is on the wall ***IF*** these verify. But the trend is becoming clearer. I'm not saying it will happen, but it's not looking like the Met Office 15-30 dayer which is painting a very wintry February with a higher than average chance of East or Northeast winds. I just do not see what they are seeing.

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It's a trend that is growing as I said yesterday. I really don't want to annoy people but if I'm commenting on the models, the writing is on the wall ***IF*** these verify. But the trend is becoming clearer. I'm not saying it will happen, but it's not looking like the Met Office 15-30 dayer which is painting a very wintry February with a higher than average chance of East or Northeast winds. I just do not see what they are seeing.

You hit the nail on the head, none of us do because we don’t work for the met office and have access to all the data.

 

Well there will be plenty of gnashing of teeth and WIO threads after the GFS 12z op no doubt.

It's only 1 run. Lets see where it sits in the GEFS first.

A shame as I thought we might be seeing signs of the height rises that the UKM forecast would need to our North for their persistent script to deliver. You are right though - the GEFS need to be out before ticking another round of output off the bucket list.

 

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You hit the nail on the head, none of us do because we don’t work for the met office and have access to all the data.

 

Well one way or another we are going to see a backtrack. Either fron the Met Office or from the models. I know which one I HOPE to see backtrack.

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Well I suppose somebody had to post the GEM tomorrow chart for day 10 

Not my cup of tea but I’m sure some might like it for the potential.

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It's a trend that is growing as I said yesterday. I really don't want to annoy people but if I'm commenting on the models, the writing is on the wall ***IF*** these verify. But the trend is becoming clearer. I'm not saying it will happen, but it's not looking like the Met Office 15-30 dayer which is painting a very wintry February with a higher than average chance of East or Northeast winds. I just do not see what they are seeing.

AFAIK, no-one here works for the MetO and thus no-one here gets access to the full range of information that they have at their disposal.

Last February, there was a time when both the GFS & ECM op runs over a few days seemed to be somewhat at odds with the MetO's prediction of a major cold blast at the end of the month and we had some people here saying "Surely the MetO will have to change their forecast now", or words along those lines. We all know who was proved right in the end, which I why I for one think it would be wise to think the MetO will be wrong with their current thoughts no matter how poor GFS FI may look in some runs.

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AFAIK, no-one here works for the MetO and thus no-one here gets access to the full range of information that they have at their disposal.

Last February, there was a time when both the GFS & ECM op runs over a few days seemed to be somewhat at odds with the MetO's prediction of a major cold blast at the end of the month and we had some people here saying "Surely the MetO will have to change their forecast now", or words along those lines. We all know who was proved right in the end, which I why I for one think it would be wise to think the MetO will be wrong with their current thoughts no matter how poor GFS FI may look in some runs.

It's not just the GFS though David. Have you seen the ECM 0z. That ain't showing anything from the east or Northeast!!

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Well one way or another we are going to see a backtrack. Either fron the Met Office or from the models. I know which one I HOPE to see backtrack.

true enough, easterlies can develop at relatively short notice, still time yet. FWIW I’m indifferent once I have seen a bit fall, I’ll then happily take mild useable weather through till spring.

It's not just the GFS though David. Have you seen the ECM 0z. That ain't showing anything from the east or Northeast!!

I take your point Kieren. What I would add is that neither model covers the period from now until late February which the entirety of the MetO's forecasts go out to and GFS only goes as far ahead as the next fortnight. That only takes us to 11/12th February or around then. As everyone who follows the models regularly must know, anything for more than a week ahead is very much open to change even under normal circumstances and far-off GFS FI can certainly never be relied upon.

Look at the three GFSop runs today as an example of how much they can and do change from one run to the next. For all GFS 12z is poor for cold, deep FI in the previous two runs today looked a bit more prosmising although neither delivered a deep freeze.

In short, all I am saying is don't discount the MetO yet. They were right about a change to colder weather in the middle of this month and they were likewise proved correct about the Beast at the end of last February at a time when some of us were beginning to have doubts.

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Some trends starting to appear? Ok it’s FI but lots of output now shows nothing to which the MetO refer to. There has to be some backdown soon surely?

 

I take your point Kieren. What I would add is that neither model covers the period from now until late February which the entirety of the MetO's forecasts go out to and GFS only goes as far ahead as the next fortnight. That only takes us to 11/12th February or around then. As everyone who follows the models regularly must know, anything for more than a week ahead is very much open to change even under normal circumstances and far-off GFS FI can certainly never be relied upon.

Look at the three GFSop runs today as an example of how much they can and do change from one run to the next. For all GFS 12z is poor for cold, deep FI in the previous two runs today looked a bit more prosmising although neither delivered a deep freeze.

In short, all I am saying is don't discount the MetO yet. They were right about a change to colder weather in the middle of this month and they were likewise proved correct about the Beast at the end of last February at a time when some of us were beginning to have doubts.

You are my alter-ego David. Mr Positive all the time.....we are yin and yang 😂😂

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