Milder runs in GEFS can also be a pre-cursor signal to blocking.  Its not always a bad thing to see in the suite.

Yes, I was just about to post the same.

The 6z GEFS' 850s on the face of it don't look that inspiring. However, when you look at the individual runs, the majority favour some kind of blocking to the East/NE in FI, albeit the pressure rise in most is not sustained as it comes under pressure from the jet to the North. Some runs are decent throughout though, with perturbation 16 being the closest to the Holy Grail.

That far out however, it's the trend towards a pressure rise to the East/NE which is important. Could be gone in the 12z GEFS of course, but I have always felt that the GFS model has been good over the years at picking up pattern changes, albeit it is clearly prone to volatility run to run, and particularly so this Winter.

Edit - The GFSP 6z follows the same trend as GEFS with a pressure rise to the NE in FI, only for it to collapse later on in the run.

GEFS 06z have trended colder in the longer term again.

GEFS 06z have trended colder in the longer term again.

Snow Rows for Brighton not looking particularly inspiring 

 

 

Snow Rows for Brighton not looking particularly inspiring 

 

 

 

Indeed. Not sure if you've seen, but the snow row league and historic graphs are now here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/snowrow.aspx?location=Brighton#Brighton

Polar lows do occasionally hit scotland, they are usually pretty good snow and soft hail makers but since they are fuelled by tropical processes they die really quickly when they go inland, so don't expect anything out of it if you are away from N or W coasts.

 

And yes I am of the opinion that polar lows are more similar to TCs than depressions. Unlike (most) TCs they develop out of baroclinic disturbances but like TCs there intensification and maintance is determined by surface fluxes rather than horizontal temperature gradients. Although since they are extremely shallow and underneath cold core lows it may be more accurate to describe them as being like subtropical cyclones.

Although that thing yesterday was not a subtropical cyclone, it was a catogary 2 hurricane.

This is interesting. 

A Polar Low hit the NW of Ireland about 3 or 4 years ago around this time of year(unsure of date) with lightning and gusty winds being the bigger feature. Can't remember if it brought snow. 

2m temps never below zero from February. Tbh still can’t see where met office are scrawling their text from.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png

That's not correct. I'm also doubtful about the extent of the cold signal but to say 2m temps don't go below 0C is wrong.

 

 

Indeed. Not sure if you've seen, but the snow row league and historic graphs are now here:

 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/snowrow.aspx?location=Brighton#Brighton

 

Thanks Brian - I was trying to find that page from the Charts page, but there doesn't appear to be a link. 

I don't suppose you store old ensemble plots by location do you?

2m temps never below zero from February. Tbh still can’t see where met office are scrawling their text from.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png

Well, either it is:

A.  Obviously they use GFS exclusively and therefore someone in Exeter is going to get the sack for gross incompetence.

or

B. They have their own forecast models and they are telling a different story.

I think B is just slightly more likely, don't you?

 

Well, either it is:

A.  Obviously they use GFS exclusively and therefore someone in Exeter is going to get the sack for gross incompetence.

or

B. They have their own forecast models and they are telling a different story.

 

 

I think B is just slightly more likely, don't you?

 

 

or C). No body knows for certain but a hefty moderation to the long term forecast is due soon.

 

 

Indeed. Not sure if you've seen, but the snow row league and historic graphs are now here:

 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/snowrow.aspx?location=Brighton#Brighton

 

Are the figures for Reading definitely correct? It's currently got a score even lower than Brighton, and way lower than London.

Do people think its worth opening another thread to focus on the PL? Not sure there is enough interest for it, but if there is it would free up the other threads to talk more about the snow situation.

Do people think its worth opening another thread to focus on the PL? Not sure there is enough interest for it, but if there is it would free up the other threads to talk more about the snow situation.

 

yes, I would be interested 

Do people think its worth opening another thread to focus on the PL? Not sure there is enough interest for it, but if there is it would free up the other threads to talk more about the snow situation.

 

I'm waiting for one of your snow probability maps

Do people think its worth opening another thread to focus on the PL? Not sure there is enough interest for it, but if there is it would free up the other threads to talk more about the snow situation.

 

 

 

I'm waiting for one of your snow probability maps

 Me too!

I'll do one of those tonight

 

I'll do one of those tonight

 

Thanks Brian - I was trying to find that page from the Charts page, but there doesn't appear to be a link. 

I don't suppose you store old ensemble plots by location do you?

I'd generally advise using the new Inventory page to select models.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/model-inventory.aspx

The old chart viewer isn't being developed further although I may make minor changes to it. The problem is that as more and more data sets are added to the site it becomes increasingly complicated to have them all on a single page.

The old ensemble plots aren't saved but the snow row data is.