That's a remarkably high confidence level for such a long range forecast. Let's wait and see what happens before lauding or criticising. 

The linked article found by doctor mog is dated Jan 13th. A fortnight is a long time in weather forecasting

 

The linked article found by doctor mog is dated Jan 13th. A fortnight is a long time in weather forecasting

 Even more remarkable that such a high confidence level was attached in that case.  It's going to be a very impressive piece of forecasting if it verifies, but let's wait and see.

 

Part of the articles reads:

"It comes after a heat surge in the Arctic saw air temperatures over the North Pole rise by 65C in two days. Such surges are known to increase the risk of wintry blasts hitting Britain".

 

As we know, all this "hot air" and talk of SSW causing beasts and the like does not guarantee cold weather to hit the UK. There are the "other 99" ingredients needed to fall into place for it to happen here.

We have had cold weather from non SSW events as well.

 

Yes, there are many other factors but it is highly improbable that the Met Office, with their extensive forecasting models, would not have taken everything into account before issuing such an alert. As others have said, 70% is a high level of confidence - but it does still mean almost a one in three chance of it not happening.

 

The linked article found by doctor mog is dated Jan 13th. A fortnight is a long time in weather forecasting

Lol, 70%..... 60%......50%.....40%......😂😂😂

Or.....

70%....80%.....90%.....

 

Or.....

70%....80%.....90%.....

If you want an example of how difficult it can be to forecast the weather in the UK, then check out the difference between last nights 96hr FAX chart from the UKMO and the 'updated' chart at 84hr, for the same time, 12Z Thu. A major modification in the space of approx 6-12hrs..

Just followed Matt's advice - the differences are indeed stark - fortunately, they favour snow - let's hope the Thursday/Friday low maintains a track which delivers for lowland England.

That little Polar Low - has re-intensified over scotland on the arpege . Amazing little feature. Average wind speed about 70pm, with gusts up to and above 100mph once its through shetland.

Edit: for a smidge it becomes hurricane strength again 150 miles off the coast of WICK.

back to the snow - I suspect there will be met warnings covering a large swathe of England and wales to cover all bases, rather than a small one for SE..  Each model has a slightly different extent and impact from this weeks snow.

edit: must have been some lag ion my internet, as MET have already updated to reflect the above.  

GFS still wants to builds a ridge but ECM looks confident in flattening the pattern and SWerlys

GFS still wants to builds a ridge but ECM looks confident in flattening the pattern and SWerlys

 

Maybe it is my imagination, but from what I have seen, ECM has been the worst performing model over the past few weeks for our neck of the woods.

Yes, I know someone will post verification stats showing ECM as the top model, but either they are wrong, or they give a misleading impression, since they are based on the hemispheric patterns rather than the small scale which so impact UK weather on the ground.

There are two tropical cyclones on the ARPEGE0Z

What the hell is going on?

This is now being shown on other models too including WRF and ICON.

Seems like we have to take the possibility of a tropical like storm hitting the UK seriously.

Polar lows do occasionally come this far south, but its very unusual for them to be this strong. These are more like medicanes than polar lows.

ICON.

This is not a baroclinic system. It has an eyewall and a warm core.

What the actual hell?

Its nothing compared to this nonsense of course.

Yesterday's 0Z showing a Catogary 2 hurricane landfalling in Scotland.

To be clear that's an actual hurricane, not a depression with hurricane force winds, an actual hurricane.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_192_1.png

Thinking of linking up

Yes there has been a trend for this but usually it keeps getting flattened!

This is what the strongest polar low ever looked like.

Seems like this record could be under threat.

That being said the meseoscale models are way too keen to blow medicanes up too, so I can't imagine it verifying especially not in the way its being shown.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_192_1.png

Thinking of linking up

What a guess - flattened at +252 on 06z

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_252_1.png

run but 0z run brings that HP to Scandinavia:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_252_1.png