Q - where is that warm core originating from? From the air drying? IF its sourced from colder climates, how can it create a warmer (albeit still frigid) core?
Look at the 500hpa temperature profile, the anomolies are ridiculously low. Tropical cyclones form under regions of low wind shear and high vertical temperature gradient. Usually that's the tropics but cooling the top of the atmosphere is just as effective as warming the surface of the atmosphere and that's what we have going on here. The SSTs over the north at altlantic are relatively warm at 10C or so but there is frigid air moving over the top. This creates convective instability, which is exasserbated by latent heat release as showers form and consensation occurs.
Usually, of course, you just get showers because the wind shear is too high but apparantely its going to be low enough to actually spin up some kind of tropical like cyclone.
It does happen semi regularly on the ice front near svalbard where you can get frigid arictic air moving over relatively warm seas. But polar lows occasionally get as far south as scotland.
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.