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Mixed start to the meteorological spring

Published 24th February 14:00

February has been a very mild month, with the Central England temperature for the month provisionally 8.5°C to the 23rd. That's a huge 4.7°C above the 1961-90 average, but in recent days it has turned cooler. Will that continue as we head into March and the start of the meteorological spring?

More wet spells on the way

As well as mild, it has been very wet for much of the winter and there are a large number of flood warnings in place. Unfortunately, it looks like there is more rain on the way, at least in the short term.

The London GEFS chart below show forecast rain for the next 16 days on its bottom half. The number of spikes gives an indication of the likelihood of rain at any given time, while their height relates to the amount of rain being forecast. 

The key points to note are that it is looking wet between 25th - 26th February and again between the 29th February -  3rd March. Beyond that, drier conditions are signalled, with fewer rain spikes appearing.

The other thing to note is that it doesn't look cold. In fact, upper air temperatures (on the top half of the plot) are forecast to be above the 30 year norm (the thick black line) for much of the 16 day period. However, that doesn't necessarily translate to early spring warmth down at the ground level. So what is the outlook for temperatures?

Average to mild temperatures?

The chart below is also generated using data from the GEFS model. It shows the forecast 2m temperature (what we experience at the ground level) range for the next 16 days in the London area.

Through the first week it all appears quite average. However, by March the spread increases as the individual runs begin to diverge. That is expected and indicates lower forecast confidence as computer models suggest a wider range of possible outcomes when peeking further ahead into the future. Nonetheless, there is a suggestion for temperatures to be trending upwards. Mild probably describes the most likely outcome, but early season warmth is a possibility.

Mixed outlook but early warmth is possible

To conclude, things look rather mixed through the rest of February and the first third of March. In the short term temperatures will be close to the norm and there is a likelihood of showers or longer spells of rain. However, more settled conditions could begin returning by the second week of March and the chance of some early spring warmth can't be discounted at this stage. With that said, the nights would probably remain chilly, leading to large diurnal variations in temperatures.