Weather updates from site founder Brian Gaze that keep you in the know.
Published 27th March, 16:30
The coming week brings unsettled weather. All areas have showers or longer spells of rain, but with winds going back into a southwesterly direction it will become milder, at least for a time. Are there any signs of a change as we head into April and towards the Easter period?
There are tentative indications of a change in early April. The data table below aggregates the pressure forecasts from all of the individual runs in the GEFS ensemble model for the next 16 days.
The key point to note is that the columns contain more yellow and orange shading after April 1st. The yellow and orange colours are used to indicate runs in the GEFS which are forecasting close to or above average pressure. Higher pressure generally leads to a greater chance of dry weather. A note of caution is needed because towards the very end the number of runs showing lower pressure (green and blue shading) is increasing a little again.
London MSLP data table
The graph below is also generated using data from the GEFS model. It shows the forecast 850hPA temperatures on the top part and precipitation amounts on the lower. In the short term there are lots of precipitation spikes which indicates wet spells. However, the number of them falls away in early April so the chance of dry periods increases.
However, it should be noted that it isn't looking completely dry and if the data is close to the mark there would still be a chance of rain.
A similar pattern is shown on plots for locations further north and west. Nonetheless, it is worth keeping an eye on the GEFS ensemble forecasts because they are updated every 6 hours. At this time of the year there is usually a lot of uncertainty in the medium range outlook.
The GEFS graph is hinting at lower 850hPa temperatures returning in early April. That would suggest the possibility of a northerly flow of sorts, with high pressure centred to the west and north of the UK. We are reaching the time of the year when it can feel quite pleasant in sunny spells even under a cold air mass, although when cloud and showers come along temperatures can quickly drop.
During the second week of April an increasing number of runs pull in milder or warmer air. Of course that could coincide with the Easter period, but the signal is weak and tentative at the moment. In other words it is something to keep an eye on through the coming days, but most definitely not something to be relied on.
In the short term the weather remains unsettled. However, there currently appears to be a better chance of dry periods next week. At the same time air mass temperatures may be dipping due to a northerly flow moving down across the UK. That could well produce a showery picture which the GEFS data isn't picking up on at the moment, so the signal for drier conditions possibly needs to be treated with caution.
By the Easter period and through the second week of April temperatures may be trending upwards, but it is still a very long way off.
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