TWO Buzz

Weather news and views from Brian Gaze.

Weather change on the horizon

Late season warmth first?

Posted 9nd October, 15:50

High pressure continues to bring a lot of dry and settled weather to much of the UK through the coming week. However, there are signs of a change developing during the last third of October.

Change on the horizon?

I wasn't sure whether the title should have been "Change over the horizon" because for the next 10 days the London GEFS plot below shows a lot of dry weather, although it's a more mixed picture in the north west. When looking at the UK weather prospects beyond 10 days, even broad-brush trends, there is often a big margin for error!

Things potentially start to change from around October 20th with the number of runs in the ensemble model forecasting rain increasing. Plots for locations in the north west of the UK show the transition kicking off a few days earlier. 

GEFS 06z London 850hPa temperatures and precipitation, init 9th October 2021

Cooler in the short term

Upper air temperatures on the top part of the plot dip below the 30 year norm in the short term as cooler air filters southwards. However, they climb above it again by October 14th and remain there until the 22nd. By the end of the 16 day period there is a mix of mild and chilly runs, with one of the 33 being cold enough to show precipitation falling as snow - see the snow row count along the bottom.   

Pleasantly warm afternoons?

The London GEFS 2m temperature plot below shows it turning cooler in the next few days. However, as with the upper air plot, most of the runs go on to show 2m temperatures picking up again.

As we've seen in recent days a lot depends on the extent of cloud cover at this time of the year, but in sunny spells it should feel quite warm in the afternoons during the middle of October. Nights could be chilly, especially in the north.

GEFS 06z 2m temperatures London, init 9th October 2021

Through the last few days of the period most of the runs show 2m temperatures trending downwards. However, at this stage it looks as though they are simply heading back towards the late October. 

TL;DR

Much of the UK has a lot of settled weather during the next 10 to 14 days. Temperatures fall a little for a time, but they quickly recover and some pleasantly warm afternoon are very possible during middle October. The driest and warmest conditions are expected to be in southern Britain.

At the moment there are signs of a change beginning to shape up as we head through the last third of the month. More unsettled conditions with closer to average temperatures are favoured. Nonetheless, there is plenty of time for things to change. 

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