Weather updates from site founder Brian Gaze that keep you in the know.
A big change in the weather is now beginning to take place. The fine and very warm conditions which parts of the UK have been experiencing in recent days will give way to a much more mixed pattern. Downpours and thunderstorms are on the way!
Tonight thunderstorms push up from the south. The worst of them are likely to be in central and eastern England where some torrential downpours are expected. The rain rate chart below is from the UK Met Office UKV model and is valid for 04:00 UTC, Thursday 17th June.
Tomorrow the storms clear northeastwards, but it will be cooler than recently. Temperatures today could reach 30C (86F) locally in the south east, but top values tomorrow will be closer to 24C (75F) to the south east of London.
The risk of downpours returns to much of England on Friday. Once again the worst conditions are forecast to be in central and eastern counties. The chart below is valid for 15:00 UTC, Friday 18th June.
Rain totals have the potential to vary a lot over relatively short distances. That's often the case at this time of the year when precipitation tends to come from showers or storms rather than frontal systems pushing in from the Atlantic.
ln the medium term things are looking very mixed as the GEFS 00z plot below for London illustrates.
The big rain spikes on the lower half of the plot shows the risk of downpours continuing into next week. At the same tine, air mass temperatures are generally above the 30 year average. That suggests it will be warm and humid during sunny spells.
By June 23rd cooler air returns. Things then remain variable until the end of the month. If it is correct the second half of June will be significantly different to the first half!
Comparable plots for locations further north and west also show a changeable or unsettled picture being the dominant theme for the next 16 days.
In the short term thunderstorms push northeastwards across England. Central and eastern areas generally have the worst of them. The risk of downpours continues early next week. In the longer term the prospects are mixed, with temperatures fluctuating around the average. Eastern and south eastern areas could be warmer at times.
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