TWO Buzz

Weather news and views from Brian Gaze.

Big change next week

High pressure returns

Posted  30th October 11:58

Unsettled weather continues during the next few days and at times it will be very wet and windy. Next week a change is expected as high pressure builds across the UK.

Drier and settled period

The GFS 06z chart below is for Thursday 5th November - Bonfire Night! It shows an area of high pressure covering the UK which means we can expect it to be mainly dry. Upper air temperatures won't be far off the average but with calm conditions it could become quite cold at the surface. A chilly, dry and frosty Bonfire Night this year would be a change from many in recent years.

GFS 06z surface pressure and 500hPa height, init 30th October 2020

Frost and fog

Much of southern Britain hasn't yet seen temperatures dipping below 0C (32F) this season but that could change next week.

The forecast chart below is for 06:00GMT on Thursday 5th November. Temperatures across much of the country are only a degree or two above freezing point and I would expect them to be lower locally. Of course much depends on cloud cover. Without clear periods temperatures will hold up and frost won't be an issue.

The calm and anticyclonic conditions also suggest the likelihood of fog in places and it could be slow to clear during the short days. 

GFS 06z min temperature forecast for Thursday 5th November

How long will the quiet weather last?

Most computer models are showing high pressure drifting away eastwards late next week. As that happens area of low pressure start pushing in from the Atlantic. They bring an increasing likelihood of rain, particularly in the west and south west.

The GFS 06z chart below is for Sunday 8th November. It shows an area of low pressure centred to the southwest of the UK. At this range details are very uncertain, but the general picture is being shown quite consistently by many computer model runs. 

GFS 06z surface pressure and precipitation forecast for Nov 8th

TL;DR

High pressure is set to build and bring a period of more settled weather next week. It brings an increasing risk of nighttime frost and fog but the extent depends on the amount of cloud cover.

By the end of next week areas of low pressure may be pushing in from the Atlantic.  The lead to an increasing risk of rain in southern and western counties. As well as more changeable it probably also turns milder as a south or southwesterly flow returns. 

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