Weather updates from site founder Brian Gaze that keep you in the know.
The weather prospects for the next couple of week are looking fairly typical for the time of year. High pressure centred over the Azores will build towards the UK but areas of low pressure to the northwest won't give it a free hand. In many ways it is textbook stuff and different to what we've often seen in recent years.
The chart below from today's GFS 06z model run is for Thursday 16th June. It shows a deep area of low pressure centred near Iceland and high pressure ridging from the Azores towards the UK. The Icelandic low and Azores high are semi permanent features dominating the weather patterns across the North Atlantic. They result in a predominantly westerly flow moderating the temperatures in the UK during the summer and keeping it mild in the winter.
In recent years we've often seen an increasing tendency for high pressure to migrate into continental Europe. That has resulted in what I sometimes call the "west European heat dome" or "blowtorch pattern" which leads to very warm upper level air pushing northwards across Spain, France and into the UK. Essentially the typical Spanish Plume pattern but on steroids. Last year the set-up produced the highest recorded temperature in the UK when 38.7C was reached at Cambridge Botanical Gardens on July 25th.
We're now at the half way point of the meteorological summer and so far the Azores high pressure has been more reluctant to build a ridge into France, Germany and the UK. There is still time for things to change but at the moment computer models show more typical summer weather persisting in the UK. That means warm and dry periods in the south with more unsettled conditions in the north west. Temperatures in the south varying from the low 20Cs to the upper 20Cs but showing little sign of pushing above 30C and remaining there.
Nonetheless, there is time for change. The TWO summer forecast issued at the end of the May suggested the most settled periods of the season would probably be in August. Although the days are rapidly shortening by then real heat is still very possible. In fact until last year beat it the UK temperature record of 38.5C was set in Faversham, Kent on 10th August 2003.
Even with a traditional summer split in the UK weather there is the potential for rain at times in the south east. The top half of the London GEFS 06z plot below for London shows upper air temperatures with the lower half showing forecast rain.
Upper air temperatures are shown to fluctuate around the average. However, only one of the runs shows a "blowtorch" feed with temperatures at the 850hPa level climbing above 15C. As discussed above I would expect some pleasantly warm or even very warm days from this but no significant heat. As a caveat I will add that in recent years there has been a trend for hot conditions to develop very quickly, so don't rule out the possibility of temperatures soaring above 30C later this month.
The rainfall forecasts point to quite a dry outlook. There are several periods when rain is more likely. As well as in the next couple of days it seems the risk increases between the 19th and 21st and the 25th and 29th July. Those dates aren't set in stone but they highlight the balance between dry and wet periods in the south during the next 16 days. The dry spells definitely have the upper hand at the moment. In the north west of the UK it is a wetter picture.
In many ways it's good old fashioned British summer weather in the next couple of weeks, especially in the south. Some people may call it Goldilocks weather because it's not too hot or too cool. More often than not it should be pleasantly warm to sit outside in the day but not too oppressive and stuffy to sleep at night.
The possibility of rain as ever makes long term planning in the UK somewhat difficult. However, in the south the dry days outnumber the wet ones but as you head northwest the balance progressively changes.
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