TWO Buzz

Weather news and views from Brian Gaze.

Storm Dennis this weekend

Details still uncertain

Posted Tue 11th February 11:06

Storm Ciara has now moved away but the weather will remain unsettled during the coming days. This weekend there is the risk of Storm Dennis bringing disruption to parts of the UK.

Severe gales possible

A strong jet stream will continue to bring disturbances in from the Atlantic through the rest of this week. Day to day details will vary but the general picture is an unsettled one. It will often be windy and there are signs of it turning stormy again this weekend.

The GFS 06z chart below shows the expected set-up across the North Atlantic region this Sunday. In many ways it's a very typical positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern with low pressure to the northwest and high pressure to the south. A sharp pressure gradient leaves the UK under a vigorous westerly flow. 

It is too early to be confident about the weather details for this weekend. It looks as though winds will strengthen and it could become stormy again. At the moment  the expectation is winds won't be as strong as they were when Storm Ciara passed through. Nonetheless there could be some disruption and heavy outbreaks of rain may present an additional hazard. Over high ground in the north it may be cold enough for further periods of sleet or snow.



The GFS 06z wind gust forecast chart below is for 15:00GMT, Saturday 15th February. Gusts speeds of between 50mph  to 65mph are shown in much of the UK.   

The strong winds could continue into Sunday. The GFS 06z wind gust forecast chart below is for 06:00GMT, Sunday 16th February. Gust speeds of 60mph to 75mph are shown in affecting some southern and central areas. More than enough to cause disruption, but the details will probably change a lot in the next few days.

TL;DR

Unsettled weather continues this week. It will be cold enough for sleet or snow in the north at times. This weekend there is a risk of stormy conditions bringing disruption. Computer models currently suggest things won't be as bad as they were when Storm Ciara passed by but the details need watching.

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