the ens days 11/15 are all pointing to a renewed atlantic trough (very low amoloy on the eps)  and higher heights returning to our south and southeast. if this is not going to happen then it will take the ops to head on a different track days 7/10 which the ens will then follow. as an example, the MLB next week was not picked by the ens but by the ecm op (which over did the latitude as it generally does). so we have a block next week when the extended ens originally pointed to a mean trough just to our east.  

the general rule is that the op follows the ens in that time period but I find that if ecm op is consistently going in one direction against its mean anomaly in the 7/10 day period then it should be taken notice of. at the moment the output days 7/10 seems pretty good between the op and the ens. if the esn are consistent then that souwesterly flow should come into view soon. if the ecm op continues to keep high heights close to our nw then we could be looking at extending the cold. the ens say that these heights will retrogress to a Canada and allow the atlantic to push through. interesting weekend approaching

On the basis that experience and evidence shows that the charts in the 7-10 day range often vary significantly from what transpires, how valuable are charts in the 11 to 16 day range?  I don't actually know, but I'd hazard an educated guess that in probability terms a ensemble trend at this range is 60-65% reliable?  I.e. Not really that much better than a random chart generator.  I'd be interested if anyone does have these stats. 

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It didn't - not the majority in the ensembles. I commented on them at the time. It showed exactly what it does now till Monday. A westerly ish flow around a sinking HP. It then showed total uncertainty but no defined Easterly in its operational runs as per ECM, and it has now changed and drifted towards that. This "bring the Atlantic back" seems to be a misused phrase when someone suggests the flow is from the West whereas I alway see it as inferring low pressure systems returning, which it never did.

The key difference between ECM and GFS last weekend and early this week as I recall, was that ECM seemed to be more keen on the idea of a pressure build over the UK to some degree, followed by a rise in pressure to the east. Maybe my recollection is letting me down, but I don't remember GFS buying into the same scenario much if at all during the same period; it's solution was a fall in pressure to the NW and a westerly or south-westerly airstream becoming established early next week. OK, it didn't at any time go for a return to zonality as such, but it seemed less keen on the idea of HP being dominant over the UK and certainly didn't seem interested in any notion of an easterly.

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The key difference between ECM and GFS last weekend and early this week as I recall, was that ECM seemed to be more keen on the idea of a pressure build over the UK to some degree, followed by a rise in pressure to the east. Maybe my recollection is letting me down, but I don't remember GFS buying into the same scenario much if at all during the same period; it's solution was a fall in pressure to the NW and a westerly or south-westerly airstream becoming established early next week. OK, it didn't at any time go for a return to zonality as such, but it seemed less keen on the idea of HP being dominant over the UK and certainly didn't seem interested in any notion of an easterly.

Spot on David. The GFS evolution was a million miles away from what looks like being the outcome, whereas ECM merely committed the crime of placing the HP further north than its eventual location. Not so good for us, but still ECM had the basic synoptics nailed well before GFS did.

Talking of which GFS 12z so far:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.aspx?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&time=90&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&tr=3

 

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The key difference between ECM and GFS last weekend and early this week as I recall, was that ECM seemed to be more keen on the idea of a pressure build over the UK to some degree, followed by a rise in pressure to the east. Maybe my recollection is letting me down, but I don't remember GFS buying into the same scenario much if at all during the same period; it's solution was a fall in pressure to the NW and a westerly or south-westerly airstream becoming established early next week. OK, it didn't at any time go for a return to zonality as such, but it seemed less keen on the idea of HP being dominant over the UK and certainly didn't seem interested in any notion of an easterly.

Quite agree David. I'm not one for cherry picking charts, only if they look interesting from a weather point of view. ECM has been leading the way over the last two weeks or so, with GFS playing catch up, maybe as the weather is coming from a more european point of view!

There are a number who comment on a chart and say it like it "will" happen, like it is definite. Okay its what the chart is showing at the time, but all charts change, they are forecasts. I wish they could add the words suggest or equivalent. I am sure this may dumb down the antagonistic tone some posts come over as. Not up to me what they write but they want to try it and sure they would receive less negative comments themselves, unless they are baiting and what they wish for.

Back OT, and GFS flip flopping temps from its previous run at 120. Could be true, of course!

T+132.

Cold air shunted further south (so far)

To summarise - next week looks like being cold, dry and frosty for much of England. Milder in the north, especially Scotland.

Looks like our winter will not be rescued from the east ( in terms of snow, although I like dry and frosty weather), so we must look north and hope the Greenie High scenario can come off.

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To summarise - next week looks like being cold, dry and frosty for much of England. Milder in the north, especially Scotland.

Possibly to midweek, after that it looks colder up here, or in the east at least before the potential ridging to/from Greenland (TBC on this evening's runs?)

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T+156. The blue is really struggling - even to get into the South.

T+132.

Cold air shunted further south (so far)

Be interesting what ECM's take is on this as GFS has not performed very well lately being all over the place playing catch up. I just would not trust it modelling this european weather, while ECM has been fairly rock solid.

T+174. Looking better as pressure rises round Iceland.

I don't buy this 12z GFS run - the synoptics are all over the place - no discernable pattern - a case of model indigestion- just does not look valid to me at this stage. What a mess:

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T+180 Cold air over Jan Mayen hopefully pivoting towards Scotland.

06z GFS is a lot colder later. Models consistent with high pressure to NW of British Isles, 06z GFS just intensifies it - so it's a 'maybe'.pic.twitter.com/eDXALgKZnz

The Colder uppers over Europe take a battering on this run with alot of them petering out. However a quick check on the surface temps shows Europe is still most certainly still in the Freezer, if anything it loks marginally colder.

I wonder whats going on up in the atmosphere to show a warming - or a less cold upper atmosphere?

Meanwhile all eyes on FI to see if the GFS starts to look like ECM

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The UK has become a magnet for high pressure this winter. No Greenie High on the GFS 12z - just another mid latitude block. Still should be nice thick ice on some canals and good country walking weather.

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A UK high continues to be a near certainty for a long time. A borefest for the rest of January but cold and dry which sure beats raging zonality.
It's clear to everyone surely that an extended spell of DRY UK high dominated weather is almost 100% certain.

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The UK has become a magnet for high pressure this winter. No Greenie High on the GFS 12z - just another mid latitude block. Still should be nice thick ice on some canals and good country walking weather.

Maybe it's not quite over for a Greenie High yet, Maunder; this chart looks a little more hopeful in that regard:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.html

 

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A UK high continues to be a near certainty for a long time. A borefest for the rest of January but cold and dry which sure beats raging zonality.
It's clear to everyone surely that an extended spell of DRY UK high dominated weather is almost 100% certain.

 

When you say 'almost 100% certain', what percentage are you thinking of?

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Maybe it's not quite over for a Greenie High yet, Maunder; this chart looks a little more hopeful in that regard:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.html

 

Never quite makes it on this run I am afraid.

It really is Groundhog day every day this winter

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