Maybe it's not quite over for a Greenie High yet, Maunder; this chart looks a little more hopeful in that regard:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.html

 

 

But then, the high slips dutifully into place over the UK

 

---

The UK has become a magnet for high pressure this winter. No Greenie High on the GFS 12z - just another mid latitude block. Still should be nice thick ice on some canals and good country walking weather.

the UK has been a magnet for High Pressure since last june 2016. and it has been a dominate feature and always tends to keep bouncing back like a bad penny,

 

 

When you say 'almost 100% certain', what percentage are you thinking of?

Well based on the last 7 days of charts from all models. I'd say a good 90%. Guesswork of course it is but the models have been coming together to show an extended period of UK high dominated weather.

---

Well based on the last 7 days of charts from all models. I'd say a good 90%. Guesswork of course it is but the models have been coming together to show an extended period of UK high dominated weather.

Fact of the day men say they are 90% confident when trying to assert a fact they are guessing at to cover themselves !!

poor UKMO and GFS, ens as well. The easterly is dead. High seems to be trending further south and west

 

---

 

Fact of the day men say they are 90% confident when trying to assert a fact they are guessing at to cover themselves !!

What are fact of the day men?

---

 

Fact of the day men say they are 90% confident when trying to assert a fact they are guessing at to cover themselves !!

I make and never had made any effort to cover myself. I just read it as I see it and I didn't pluck 90% out of the air. I looked at all the charts from ECM/UKMO/GFS over the last 7 days and approximately 90% of these have shown a UK/MLB.

It's not rocket science it's just statistics.

I've never amended winter or summer LRFs and I don't hide or shy away from people when my thoughts go wrong. That's why I don't overreact to people having a go at me. I reap what I sow and if I'm wrong I'm happy for people to knock me down and ridicule me. But likewise when I am right it's nice to receive recognition for that as certain people did last year during the December from hell when I called a record breaking mild December and predicted exceptional warmth about 3 weeks before the month had started.

David Porter was particularly kind to me but I accept the criticism from him now likewise.

We are all enthusiastic amateurs and my brain is not a £97 million super computer.

---

I make and never had made any effort to cover myself. I just read it as I see it and I didn't pluck 90% out of the air. I looked at all the charts from ECM/UKMO/GFS over the last 7 days and approximately 90% of these have shown a UK/MLB.

It's not rocket science it's just statistics.

Actually a large number have shown some form of ridging to or from Greenland in a week or so? Are you discounting this and will you continue to do so if the ECM 12z run shows such a scenario...again)?

---

 

Actually a large number have shown some form of ridging to or from Greenland in a week or so? Are you discounting this and will you continue to do so if the ECM 12z run shows such a scenario...again)?

On balance over the last 7 days inclusive of the ECM approximately 90% have gone on to progress to a UK High/Rex block in the medium term. It was using statistics that led me to my record mild December 2015 call. It's certainly not an infallible method but is as accurate as any other method in my view.

---

Blimey, 850hPA temps are being downgraded at a rate of knots! This has been coming but the GEFS 12z is a real kick in the teeth.
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=224&ext=1&y=247&run=12&runpara=0 

---

To clarify my method. It's exactly the same as was the case for December 2015 as an example. David Porter knows this as I told him what methodology I use for MRFs and that is basically I collect data from all 12z runs of the big 3. I collate them and in any seven day period I basically have 21 charts to look at. I then extrapolate this to a "probability" forecast based on those seven days worth of charts from the big 3.
The exact figure for the current seven day period is standing at 88.6% in favour of a UK/MLB high.

---

On balance over the last 7 days inclusive of the ECM approximately 90% have gone on to progress to a UK High/Rex block in the medium term. It was using statistics that led me to my record mild December 2015 call. It's certainly not an infallible method but is as accurate as any other method in my view.

Yes, the do you not recognise the trend to which I refer that has occurred over the last couple of days. With such changes why would you use the charts from 7 to 3 days ago (which are presumably outdated) rather than just the more recent ones? The recent ones may not have the evolution correct but surely they are more accurate than ones from data days old?

---

 

Yes, the do you not recognise the trend to which I refer that has occurred over the last couple of days. With such changes why would you use the charts from 7 to 3 days ago (which are presumably outdated) rather than just the more recent ones? The recent ones may not have the evolution correct but surely they are more accurate than ones from data days old?

See my explanation above. It's totally not infallible but I just look at averages and probabilities. 

---

Blimey, 850hPA temps are being downgraded at a rate of knots! This has been coming but the GEFS 12z is a real kick in the teeth.
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=224&ext=1&y=247&run=12&runpara=0

 

Yes very uninspiring output across the board tonight . At least I've seen some snow fall and settle but it's not enough to satisfy.  Hopefully thats not it but it's not looking good in fact quite depressing tonight. It looked so promising a couple of days ago can't believe how poor it looks now.

 

---

See my explanation above. It's totally not infallible but I just look at averages and probabilities. 

I understand your methodology I just think as new information comes in, using averages from days old data would dilute the accuracy of any forecast especially in an evolving situation. What will you think if the ECM op run strengthens the trend towards a Greenland High? Would you just add it to the mixing rather than seeing a trend over recent days?

---

On balance over the last 7 days inclusive of the ECM approximately 90% have gone on to progress to a UK High/Rex block in the medium term. It was using statistics that led me to my record mild December 2015 call. It's certainly not an infallible method but is as accurate as any other method in my view.

Did you make a call on December 2015. First I have heard of it!

For goodness sake people make Long Range Guesses and sometimes they are right and sometimes they are wrong, often the latter. Yes you apparently have been wrong this season so welcome to mortality. Your stats ending correctly last year WERE A GUESS, you were lucky. That's the real world mate.

 

I understand your methodology I just think as new information comes in, using averages from days old data would dilute the accuracy of any forecast especially in an evolving situation. What will you think if the ECM op run strengthens the trend towards a Greenland High? Would you just add it to the mixing rather than seeing a trend over recent days?

I will add it to the mixing and the 12z from this time last Friday will be removed. It's as good a method as any in my view. 😁😀 It's all pure conjecture and guesswork.

My LRF methodology is very similar but uses archived runs from a 30 year period and pattern matches.

They've had varying degrees of success too. It's all good fun and takes me ages but I still love doing it.

---

">http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=224&ext=1&y=247&run=12&runpara=0

 

Yes very uninspiring output across the board tonight . At least I've seen some snow fall and settle but it's not enough to satisfy.  Hopefully thats not it but it's not looking good in fact quite depressing tonight. It looked so promising a couple of days ago can't believe how poor it looks now.

 

No doubt you are looking well into FI ?

---

poor UKMO and GFS, ens as well. The easterly is dead. High seems to be trending further south and west

 

Should read "UKMO and GFS SUGGEST the easterly is dead".

Let's see what ECM has to say about it.

Full ens