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Did you make a call on December 2015. First I have heard of it!For goodness sake people make Long Range Guesses and sometimes they are right and sometimes they are wrong, often the latter. Yes you apparently have been wrong this season so welcome to mortality. Your stats ending correctly last year WERE A GUESS, you were lucky. That's the real world mate.
Did you make a call on December 2015. First I have heard of it!
For goodness sake people make Long Range Guesses and sometimes they are right and sometimes they are wrong, often the latter. Yes you apparently have been wrong this season so welcome to mortality. Your stats ending correctly last year WERE A GUESS, you were lucky. That's the real world mate.
If I'm brutally honest I have called seasons generally correct on just over 50% of the time so yes that proves it's probably sheer luck but in my view with the chaos of the atmosphere it's not more infallible than any other method. 😀
Yes very uninspiring output across the board tonight . At least I've seen some snow fall and settle but it's not enough to satisfy. Hopefully thats not it but it's not looking good in fact quite depressing tonight. It looked so promising a couple of days ago can't believe how poor it looks now.
No doubt you are looking well into FI ?
I'm not writing off winter just feel we've been very unlucky,. We had 2cm snow here it's 95% gone already a very poor cold spell and i cant see another one anytime soon . I admire your optimism this winter but mine has run out today.
The key difference between ECM and GFS last weekend and early this week as I recall, was that ECM seemed to be more keen on the idea of a pressure build over the UK to some degree, followed by a rise in pressure to the east. Maybe my recollection is letting me down, but I don't remember GFS buying into the same scenario much if at all during the same period; it's solution was a fall in pressure to the NW and a westerly or south-westerly airstream becoming established early next week. OK, it didn't at any time go for a return to zonality as such, but it seemed less keen on the idea of HP being dominant over the UK and certainly didn't seem interested in any notion of an easterly.
Yes - I agree, that was more like it. As I said after this initial short mild spell coming up the GFS ensembles were completely scattered from the 16th - no clear easterly and I do recall writing it was anybody's guess. Of course it was the ensembles I had been remarking on not individual op runs ;-)
I really have kept my feet on the ground over this cold spell and the way the models have portrayed the extension of it into an easterly next week. I have never really bought into it fully because of the stubborn Jet flow to the North of the predicted High pressure belt early next week. From experience these nearly always sink Scandinavian High pressure areas South in the models and to date that is what has happened. The mean charts which I know many hate particularly from ECM has never shown such a strong East feed at Day 10 with the more likely verification being a MLB near the UK or from an extension of High pressure over Central Europe.
...and i am going to defend Moomin here. Using the means day to day and correlating a trend has always been the best way to go and I acknowledge Moomin for his reasoning as from what he says above he is correlating trends from current and recent history charts. It does work much of the time and blends all the extreme scenarios shown in the perturbations be them cold or mild into a trend which is what longer range charts are supposed to be used for rather than actual details. This probably accounts for his muted excitement about individual (usually extreme cold) charts shown and reflects a view using all the mean data at his disposal.
Shoot me at half mask Martin
I really have kept my feet on the ground over this cold spell and the way the models have portrayed the extension of it into an easterly next week. I have never really bought into it fully because of the stubborn Jet flow to the North of the predicted High pressure belt early next week. From experience these nearly always sink Scandinavian High pressure areas South in the models and to date that is what has happened. The mean charts which I know many hate particularly from ECM has never shown such a strong East feed at Day 10 with the more likely verification being a MLB near the UK or from an extension of High pressure over Central Europe....and i am going to defend Moomin here. Using the means day to day and correlating a trend has always been the best way to go and I acknowledge Moomin for his reasoning as from what he says above he is correlating trends from current and recent history charts. It does work much of the time and blends all the extreme scenarios shown in the perturbations be them cold or mild into a trend which is what longer range charts are supposed to be used for rather than actual details. This probably accounts for his muted excitement about individual (usually extreme cold) charts shown and reflects a view using all the mean data at his disposal.
Crickey Allyl its only been a couple of runs we all know how quickly things can change.
We don’t need Andy W to tell us winter is over just yet, chin up!!
Full ens
That's a pretty major flip. Signs are that ECM ens are wobbling too, so I suspect we are starting to see a pattern change being signalled. It remains to be seen what the pattern will change to though!
Using a mean is one thing Martin but using a mean of data up to 7 days old is not as reliable. Things become rapidly out of date in changing situations - data from last weekend will not help.
Use the daily means if you want and look at the trends and that will give you an indication of the way things are moving. Use a mean of all the data over 7 days and nine times out of ten you will get a meaningless signal of a muted soup of outcomes. That is statistics.
Indeed M ive lost count how many times we have spoken about it
Using a mean is one thing Martin but using a mean of data up to 7 days old is not as reliable. Things become rapidly out of date in changing situations - data from last weekend will not help.Use the daily means if you want and looks T the trends and that will give you an indication of the way things are moving. Use a mean of all the data over 7 days and nine times out of ten you will get a meaningless signal of a muted soup of outcomes. That is statistics.
Use the daily means if you want and looks T the trends and that will give you an indication of the way things are moving. Use a mean of all the data over 7 days and nine times out of ten you will get a meaningless signal of a muted soup of outcomes. That is statistics.
Crickey Allyl its only been a couple of runs we all know how quickly things can change.We don’t need Andy W to tell us winter is over just yet, chin up!! I'm not writing off winter just feel we've been very unlucky,. We had 2cm snow here it's 95% gone already a very poor cold spell and i cant see another one anytime soon . I admire your optimism this winter but mine has run out today.
We need a big turnaround in the models though seems to have been going in one direction recently. Fingers crossed for a cold ecm tonight.
Thought it might be worth sticking the GFS T2M temps up for London:
Other than a brief blip it's essentially at or below 5c maxes through to 24th Jan. Nothing earth shattering but it's a chilly and settled outlook with plenty of frost about if skies are clear.
I also don't see the depression when there's charts like this being churned out (both by ECM and GFS):
That's a few tweaks away from being stunning imo. Plenty of promise in FI and still some wintry weather around for some in the immediate. It's not a classic cold spell but it's certainly seasonal
At least it will be dry. Not a lot else to comment on really.
Except the high is much more flattened out.
Consistent in synoptics but the 850s are a good 5C higher than in recent runs down here (although may be colder in the north!)
This 'easterly' is like death by a thousand cuts in terms of potency.
LOL
That's not my post mate
Been in Brum with your mate Mark overnight, we had a dusting then about an hours worth of falling snow , Banbury also had a dusting this morning
It was this run last Friday night when ECM first suggested the possiblity of high pressure taking over again from the start of the coming week.
IMO, it is very difficult to find any faults with the way it has performed at all. It has, of nothing else, at least been pretty consistent in the past 7 days.
tweet from MATT Hugo:
Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81 14m14 minutes ago
12Z EC holding the main centre of gravity of the high next week further south meaning the colder continental flow is less likely too...
It was this run last Friday night when ECM first suggested the possiblity of high pressure taking over again from the start of the coming week.IMO, it is very difficult to find any faults with the way it has performed at all. It has, of nothing else, at least been pretty consistent in the past 7 days.
I agree , its stuck to its guns and done well
A cold chart for MBY regardless of 850's