It would seem a dusting for some is certainly not out of the question over the weekend.

This HP looks set too hang arround a bit longer on the 06Z. Which I'm more than happy with TBH. Great weather here today, and looks like the frost will last all day. Has been a few years since that last happened here.

Although if we go all week without even a a flake on an Easterly feed, then we have been unlucky IMO.

We can all only guess what FI really holds, but with southerly tracking jet and some very cold conditions to our east, a disjointed Atlantic and supposed projections of stratospheric warming, we would be very unlucky not to see a fairly decent cold spell later this winter. It may be close but no cigar this time round which would lead us to ask "just what do we have to do to have a decent winters spell in the U.K. nowadays?"

Arrange deportation from Telford with Pyongyang ?

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We can all only guess what FI really holds, but with southerly tracking jet and some very cold conditions to our east, a disjointed Atlantic and supposed projections of stratospheric warming, we would be very unlucky not to see a fairly decent cold spell later this winter. It may be close but no cigar this time round which would lead us to ask "just what do we have to do to have a decent winters spell in the U.K. nowadays?"

"From the second week of February there is an increased likelihood for high pressure to return, bringing more settled weather with lighter winds and a return of overnight frost and fog. As a result, temperatures may become colder at times although the chance of very cold weather developing is considered to be low."

Answer to what we  have  to do.Wait a couple of weeks to see how this METO forecast -"return of HP" plays out>

Southwesterlies in by t96 on GFS

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2017012012/UN144-21.GIF?20-17

UKMO more amplified than GFS

 

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Arrange deportation from Telford with Pyongyang ?

Or to Istanbul, Athens, Valencia, Marseille, Rome, Florence, Naples, Nicosia etc - Where they have cold weather and snow in the winter.

Leaving the EU didn't help.

But it is a joke really.

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I have to be honest and say that I'm now this close to throwing in the towel in terms of us getting to experience a sustained proper cold spell (complete with, you know, that thing called . . . snow?) for the rest of this winter.
  Just that I've noticed deep cold being predicted to dig well south over the eastern side of North America in the past few model runs. Once that takes a hold and then fire up the mid-Atlantic cyclogenesis machine, I would say that is pretty much game over for us.
  Admittingly, all that ARE in deep FI territory and thus subject to change, but it doesn't really instill that much confidence in me as I think back to the Winter of 2014. The saving grace is that there'll be just February left (although March & April can be just as prone to unsettled weather, the only difference is increasing daylight).
  Those wishing for actual stormy weather may be pleased.

 

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MBY gets an actual snowflake symbol for Sunday

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2638785

 

 

Just want to say that somebody has now stolen my snowflake 

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The stand off between high pressure to the east, and low pressure to the west continues on the GFS 12z.
Suggestions are that low pressure is trying to make more in roads to the south. If that happens, high pressure looks like it is waiting to tumble down from the north east.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3842.gif 

The stand off between high pressure to the east, and low pressure to the west continues on the GFS 12z.
Suggestions are that low pressure is trying to make more in roads to the south. If that happens, high pressure looks like it is waiting to tumble down from the north east.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3842.gif

Yes it's finely poised... but equally we could end up with a real soaker a la 2014. Remember that? (How could we forget!) - lots of blocking around but with the jet smacking up against it to the south and dumping never-ending rain on us!

 

3 years ago:  http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2014/Rrea00120140118.gif

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2014/Rrea00120140131.gif

 

etc etc !

 

Some of those Jan 2014 charts are actually uncannily similar to the output we are seeing in FI at the moment.

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Arpege day 4/5

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CMA 108:

and 120

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ECM nothing like CMA at 120 sadly!
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2017012012/ECM1-120.GIF?20-0 

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ECM nothing like CMA at 120 sadly!
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2017012012/ECM1-120.GIF?20-0

Fair dos.  Lets be honest, CMA is regarded as cannon fodder and it gets wheeled out when its showing cold.  Atlantic gets back in at day 6 on ECM.

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